UIUC Fantasy FootballEst. 2018 · 2026 season

Week 3 boardUpdated Sun, Oct 4 · Weeks 4–17

Week 3 Player Board: Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Only Tier 1, Saquon Barkley Lands in Tier 6

Gibbs projects 25.0 points a week, 17.8 above the best free-agent back, the only player in Tier 1. Barkley lands in Tier 6 after a 7-ppg start and a Week 4 hamstring. Kenneth Walker III, Brock Purdy and A.J. Brown are the biggest sells against the market. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 14.8 · RB 7.2 · WR 8.9 · TE 9.1 · K 8.4 · DEF 5.5

  1. 1WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · Ari's Astounding TeamHold23.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 24.5, likely 16.3–30.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.8–39.2
    2. Week 5: expected 23.0, likely 15.3–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–36.9
    3. Week 6: expected 21.6, likely 14.4–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–34.6
    4. Week 7: expected 22.9, likely 15.2–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 11–36.6
    5. Week 8: expected 22.8, likely 15.2–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 11–36.5
    6. Week 9: expected 23.7, likely 15.7–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–37.9
    7. Week 10: expected 22.7, likely 15–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–36.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 22.8, likely 15.1–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–36.5
    10. Week 13: expected 24.2, likely 16–30, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–38.7
    11. Week 14: expected 23.0, likely 15.3–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–36.9
    12. Week 15: expected 22.5, likely 14.9–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–36
    13. Week 16: expected 22.2, likely 14.7–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.6–35.5
    14. Week 17: expected 22.5, likely 15–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–36
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Historic start: 405 yards and 6 TDs in three games on a league-high 37.2% target share, 35 targets vs 12 for the next Seahawk (espn.com). That pace (34.7 PPR per game) will not hold, since six TDs in three games is a fluke, but last year's 35.9% share says the volume is real, so we set him 2.5 above ESPN's 20.5. Week 11 bye; ESPN has 20.1 for Weeks 14-17. The best WR on this board.

    Why not the projection (20.5) ESPN's 20.5 ignores a 37% target share he has now held for over a season; we regress the TDs but not the volume.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    21.3
    Above repl.
    +12.4
    Wks 14–17
    22.6
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  2. 2WRAmon-Ra St. BrownDET · Horus St. BrownHold20.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 20.4, likely 13.6–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.7
    2. Week 5: expected 21.4, likely 14.2–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–34.3
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 21.3, likely 14.2–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–34.1
    5. Week 8: expected 19.4, likely 12.9–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–31.1
    6. Week 9: expected 21.5, likely 14.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–34.3
    7. Week 10: expected 20.0, likely 13.3–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.1
    8. Week 11: expected 20.2, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.3
    9. Week 12: expected 20.8, likely 13.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.2
    10. Week 13: expected 20.4, likely 13.5–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.6
    11. Week 14: expected 20.7, likely 13.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.2
    12. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 12.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–30.8
    13. Week 16: expected 20.9, likely 13.9–26, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–33.5
    14. Week 17: expected 20.6, likely 13.7–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–33
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Five TDs and 35 targets through three games, though the Week 3 line (4-19-1) was all checkdowns and one fade (nbcsports.com). The volume floor is as safe as any receiver in the league with Gibbs as the only real target competitor. Week 6 bye, ESPN 20.1 for Weeks 14-17. Slightly above ESPN for the red-zone role.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +10.2
    Wks 14–17
    20.4
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  3. 3WRPuka NacuaLAR · Free WinHold20.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.3, likely 10–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.3
    2. Week 5: expected 20.9, likely 12.1–27.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–36.6
    3. Week 6: expected 20.8, likely 12.1–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–36.4
    4. Week 7: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–34.6
    5. Week 8: expected 20.1, likely 11.6–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 7–35.1
    6. Week 9: expected 20.5, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36
    7. Week 10: expected 20.6, likely 12–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36.1
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 20.5, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36
    10. Week 13: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7–34.8
    11. Week 14: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 7–34.8
    12. Week 15: expected 21.1, likely 12.3–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–37
    13. Week 16: expected 19.0, likely 11–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.2
    14. Week 17: expected 19.2, likely 11.1–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–33.6
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Missed Weeks 2-3 with a hip/groin injury and came back for Week 4 with the Rams saying they would not limit his snaps (lastwordonsports.com). Last year's 129-1,715-10 All-Pro line is the ceiling, but Davante Adams proved he can carry this offense (195 yards in Week 2) and will keep a real share, so we shade him just under ESPN's 20.9. Week 11 bye, ESPN has him at 20.7 for Weeks 14-17. A soft-tissue hip that lingered for two weeks is the risk; hold at elite market price rather than paying it.

    Why not the projection (20.9) Shaded 0.9 below ESPN for a hip injury that just cost him two games and a healthy Davante Adams eating targets.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    18.5
    Above repl.
    +9.6
    Wks 14–17
    19.8
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  4. 4WRCeeDee LambDAL · Kirkland SignatureHold19.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.2, likely 11.5–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.3–27.6
    2. Week 5: expected 19.5, likely 13–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–31.2
    3. Week 6: expected 20.5, likely 13.6–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.8
    4. Week 7: expected 19.8, likely 13.2–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.7
    5. Week 8: expected 20.8, likely 13.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.3
    6. Week 9: expected 20.5, likely 13.6–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.8
    7. Week 10: expected 20.2, likely 13.4–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.4
    8. Week 11: expected 20.1, likely 13.3–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.1
    9. Week 12: expected 20.0, likely 13.3–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32
    10. Week 13: expected 19.2, likely 12.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–30.7
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–30.9
    13. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.3
    14. Week 17: expected 20.3, likely 13.5–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Two 100-yard games in three: 20-309-3, including 7-112 on eight targets in Brazil while George Pickens drew the attention (fantasypros.com). Dallas has thrown a lot and Lamb is the most efficient piece of it. The catch: his bye is Week 14, the first playoff week, which costs a T3 grade on a per-week basis. Hold, but plan a Week 14 replacement.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    18.4
    Above repl.
    +9.5
    Wks 14–17
    15.0
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  5. 5WRJa'Marr ChaseCIN · London BridgeHold20.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 20.5, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–35.9
    2. Week 5: expected 10.7, likely 0–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–30.9 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 20.4, likely 11.8–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–35.6
    5. Week 8: expected 20.6, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36
    6. Week 9: expected 20.2, likely 11.7–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–35.3
    7. Week 10: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–34.7
    8. Week 11: expected 21.1, likely 12.2–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–36.9
    9. Week 12: expected 21.1, likely 12.3–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–37
    10. Week 13: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–34.5
    11. Week 14: expected 20.3, likely 11.8–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–35.6
    12. Week 15: expected 20.1, likely 11.7–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 7–35.2
    13. Week 16: expected 20.9, likely 12.1–27.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–36.6
    14. Week 17: expected 20.7, likely 12–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36.1
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Left Week 4 in the second quarter with a concussion after a facemask takedown and did not return (nbcsports.com); Week 5 vs Miami depends on clearing protocol, so we list it as questionable. Before that he was rolling: 16-173-3 on 21 targets over Weeks 2-3 (nbcsports.com). Bengals bye is Week 6, so a short absence costs at most one start. Bumped up one tier from base T4 because the per-week number is dragged by one questionable week and the bye, not by any doubt about the role.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    18.3
    Above repl.
    +9.4
    Wks 14–17
    20.5
    Games
    12.5
    London Bridge →
  6. 6WRChris OlaveNO · Kirkland SignatureHold17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–34.5
    2. Week 5: expected 18.4, likely 10.7–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.2
    3. Week 6: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7–34.8
    4. Week 7: expected 19.1, likely 11.1–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–33.4
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.7
    7. Week 10: expected 16.8, likely 9.7–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.4
    8. Week 11: expected 16.7, likely 9.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.2
    9. Week 12: expected 16.8, likely 9.7–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.4
    10. Week 13: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.4
    11. Week 14: expected 16.6, likely 9.6–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29
    12. Week 15: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.3
    13. Week 16: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–30.9
    14. Week 17: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.9
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    23.5 ppg on volume: 9-107 on 13 targets in Week 3 with three near-TDs, while Tyler Shough threw all four TDs to tight ends (nbcsports.com). Few receivers have a target share this safe, and the TDs should come. Early Week 8 bye; ESPN has him at 15.5 for Weeks 14-17, which looks low for a 13-target receiver.

    Why not the projection (16.2) ESPN's 16.2 doesn't credit the target volume; we split the difference toward his 23.5 actual.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    16.3
    Above repl.
    +7.4
    Wks 14–17
    16.7
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  7. 7WRDrake LondonATL · I have a dreamHold17.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.3, likely 10.1–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.3
    2. Week 5: expected 17.2, likely 10–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.1
    3. Week 6: expected 17.0, likely 9.8–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.7
    4. Week 7: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
    5. Week 8: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.6
    6. Week 9: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 6–29.8
    7. Week 10: expected 16.9, likely 9.8–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 15.6, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.3
    10. Week 13: expected 18.3, likely 10.6–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32
    11. Week 14: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.6
    12. Week 15: expected 17.5, likely 10.1–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.6
    13. Week 16: expected 16.5, likely 9.5–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.8
    14. Week 17: expected 17.5, likely 10.1–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 3 was the reset: 9-194 on 10 targets in Michael Penix's return, after two weeks of backup QB play held him to 5.5 and 8.9 (nbcsports.com). With Penix healthy, his target share makes him a WR1, so we go a bit above ESPN's 16.4. Week 11 bye, 16.3 for Weeks 14-17. The risk is Penix's health, not London's.

    Why not the projection (16.4) ESPN's average still includes backup-QB weeks; with Penix back we lift him 0.6.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.8
    Above repl.
    +6.9
    Wks 14–17
    17.0
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  8. 8WRGarrett WilsonNYJ · Abhinav's TeamHold16.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–31.3
    2. Week 5: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28
    3. Week 6: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.6
    4. Week 7: expected 17.2, likely 10–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.1
    5. Week 8: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.8
    6. Week 9: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.4
    7. Week 10: expected 17.3, likely 10–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.2
    8. Week 11: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.7
    9. Week 12: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6–29.9
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.5
    12. Week 15: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 6–29.8
    13. Week 16: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–27.9
    14. Week 17: expected 15.3, likely 8.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–26.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Healthy after a seven-game 2025 and fifth in the NFL with 21 catches through three weeks, capped by 10-107-1 in Detroit (newyorkjets.com). Geno Smith is feeding him and nobody else on the Jets commands targets. We go 1.3 above ESPN's 15.2. Week 13 bye.

    Why not the projection (15.2) 21 catches in three games is WR1 volume; ESPN's 15.2 is still pricing in last year's injury-shortened season.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.3
    Above repl.
    +6.4
    Wks 14–17
    16.0
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  9. 9WRZay FlowersBAL · Los Angeles LesbiansHold16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.2, likely 7.2–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–29.4
    2. Week 5: expected 16.0, likely 7.6–22, 10th–90th percentile 3–31
    3. Week 6: expected 15.7, likely 7.5–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.5
    4. Week 7: expected 16.4, likely 7.8–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–31.8
    5. Week 8: expected 16.9, likely 8–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–32.7
    6. Week 9: expected 16.4, likely 7.8–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–31.7
    7. Week 10: expected 16.3, likely 7.7–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–31.6
    8. Week 11: expected 16.1, likely 7.6–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 3–31.2
    9. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 7.5–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–30.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 15.8, likely 7.5–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–30.5
    12. Week 15: expected 15.7, likely 7.5–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.5
    13. Week 16: expected 15.8, likely 7.5–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–30.7
    14. Week 17: expected 16.3, likely 7.7–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–31.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A hamstring cost him Week 2, he played 33% of snaps on a pitch count in Week 3, and he was questionable again for Week 4 before being cleared without a hard snap count (nbcsports.com). When healthy he is Lamar Jackson's top target (26.0 points in Week 1). A twice-tweaked hamstring is a real re-injury risk, and he sits at the T4/T5 line. Week 13 bye.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    14.9
    Above repl.
    +6.0
    Wks 14–17
    15.9
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  10. 10WRJustin JeffersonMIN · Horus St. BrownBuy17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 0–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.5 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 17.8, likely 10.3–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–31.1
    5. Week 8: expected 18.4, likely 10.7–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.2
    6. Week 9: expected 18.1, likely 10.5–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–31.6
    7. Week 10: expected 17.5, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.6
    8. Week 11: expected 17.2, likely 10–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.1
    9. Week 12: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6–29.8
    10. Week 13: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
    11. Week 14: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.8
    12. Week 15: expected 18.6, likely 10.8–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–32.5
    13. Week 16: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–31.3
    14. Week 17: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.7
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Missed Week 4 with a sprained left ankle that O'Connell called relatively mild and is not ruling out for Week 5 at New Orleans (espn.com). He has 13-179-2 in about two and a half games and has played only 18 snaps with new QB Kyler Murray, so the 15.0 ppg so far is noise. Week 5 is questionable, Week 6 is the bye. Bumped one tier above base T5 because the injury discount is temporary. FantasyCalc at 6,122 is the cheapest he will be all year.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    14.4
    Above repl.
    +5.5
    Wks 14–17
    17.5
    Games
    11.5
    Horus St. Brown →
  11. 11WRNico CollinsHOU · Hanging with HernandezHold15.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.2, likely 8.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.6
    2. Week 5: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.1
    3. Week 6: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.2
    4. Week 7: expected 15.8, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.1
    7. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.3
    8. Week 11: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.2
    9. Week 12: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.5
    10. Week 13: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.1
    11. Week 14: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.1
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.3
    13. Week 16: expected 15.3, likely 8.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–26.8
    14. Week 17: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–27.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Back from a two-week hamstring absence and fully cleared for Week 4 (nbcsports.com). He plays fewer snaps than most top WRs, which caps volume, but he is Houston's clear No. 1 and ESPN's 15.6 is fair. Week 8 bye, 15.8 for Weeks 14-17. PAR sits at the top of T5; the market at 5,454 prices him as a borderline WR1, a bit rich for a hamstring-prone receiver who doesn't play every snap.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    14.4
    Above repl.
    +5.5
    Wks 14–17
    15.7
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  12. 12WRDavante AdamsLAR · Ari's Astounding TeamHold15.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.5, likely 7.4–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.1
    2. Week 5: expected 15.5, likely 7.4–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.1
    3. Week 6: expected 15.4, likely 7.3–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.9
    4. Week 7: expected 14.7, likely 7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–28.5
    5. Week 8: expected 14.9, likely 7.1–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–28.9
    6. Week 9: expected 15.3, likely 7.3–21, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.6
    7. Week 10: expected 15.3, likely 7.3–21, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 15.2, likely 7.2–21, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.5
    10. Week 13: expected 14.8, likely 7–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–28.6
    11. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 7–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–28.6
    12. Week 15: expected 15.7, likely 7.4–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.4
    13. Week 16: expected 14.1, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–27.3
    14. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–27.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Carried the Rams with Nacua out: 8-195-2 in Week 2 and 20.7 in Week 3 (nbcsports.com). Nacua is back now, so his share falls, but in this offense he is still the red-zone and deep option. TD-heavy profile, so expect weeks of 6 and weeks of 30. Week 11 bye.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    14.0
    Above repl.
    +5.1
    Wks 14–17
    14.7
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  13. 13WRMichael WilsonARI · Kirkland SignatureBuy15.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.5, likely 6.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26.2
    2. Week 5: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.9
    3. Week 6: expected 14.2, likely 8.3–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.9
    4. Week 7: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.1
    5. Week 8: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–27.8
    6. Week 9: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.8
    7. Week 10: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.4
    8. Week 11: expected 14.7, likely 8.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–25.8
    9. Week 12: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–27.8
    10. Week 13: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.3
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.5
    13. Week 16: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27
    14. Week 17: expected 15.2, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Led Arizona in targets with a share that rose from 18.9% in Week 1 to 26.9% and then 34.0% in Week 3 (draftsharks.com). He has passed Marvin Harrison Jr. as the No. 1 read, and as a starter with Jacoby Brissett he has scored at a WR2 level. Bye is Week 14, the first playoff week, which is the main knock. FantasyCalc at 2,069 is far too cheap for this role.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.9
    Above repl.
    +5.0
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  14. 14WRParker WashingtonJAX · Free WinHold14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.4
    2. Week 5: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–25
    3. Week 6: expected 14.0, likely 6.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–27.2
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.2
    6. Week 9: expected 14.4, likely 8.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.2
    7. Week 10: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.1
    8. Week 11: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.4
    9. Week 12: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.4
    10. Week 13: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.1
    11. Week 14: expected 14.1, likely 8.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.6
    12. Week 15: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27
    13. Week 16: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.5
    14. Week 17: expected 15.1, likely 8.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.4
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Trevor Lawrence's clear No. 1: 15-221-2 through three games, with Brian Thomas getting one target in Week 3 (nbcsports.com). After his 29-507-3 finish last year, the floor looks real. Week 7 bye, ESPN 14.2 for Weeks 14-17. A steady WR2 at a fair market price.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    +4.6
    Wks 14–17
    14.6
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  15. 15WRChristian WatsonGB · Free WinSell14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.4, likely 7.3–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.8
    2. Week 5: expected 14.4, likely 6.9–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–28
    3. Week 6: expected 15.2, likely 7.2–21, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.5
    4. Week 7: expected 15.4, likely 7.3–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.8
    5. Week 8: expected 14.3, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–27.6
    6. Week 9: expected 13.7, likely 5–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–29.7
    7. Week 10: expected 13.3, likely 4.8–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–28.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 13.5, likely 4.9–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–29.4
    10. Week 13: expected 14.6, likely 6.9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–28.3
    11. Week 14: expected 15.0, likely 7.1–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–29.1
    12. Week 15: expected 15.2, likely 7.2–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–29.4
    13. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 6.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–27.5
    14. Week 17: expected 13.9, likely 5.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–30.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Four TDs in three games on 29 targets, 23.1 ppg (nbcsports.com). The usage is real, but a deep threat scoring a TD every seven targets will cool off, and Golden is the one getting more looks. We go a bit over ESPN's 13.6 for the role. At 3,822 the market is paying for the TDs, so sell.

    Why not the projection (13.6) Raised 0.9 over ESPN for a near co-lead target share, not the four-TD pace.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.4
    Above repl.
    +4.5
    Wks 14–17
    14.6
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  16. 16WRMatthew GoldenGB · Ankit's Awesome TeamBuy14.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.4
    2. Week 5: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.7
    3. Week 6: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.2
    4. Week 7: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.5
    5. Week 8: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27.1
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    7. Week 10: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.1
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.5
    10. Week 13: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–25
    11. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 8.5–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–25.8
    12. Week 15: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.1
    13. Week 16: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.9
    14. Week 17: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Leads Green Bay with 30 targets, one more than Christian Watson (nbcsports.com), and went 5-100-1 on 12 targets in Week 3. The second-year receiver is getting volume, not just TD luck, which makes him the safer Packer. Week 11 bye. FantasyCalc at 1,934 is cheap for a team target leader.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.0
    Above repl.
    +4.1
    Wks 14–17
    14.3
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  17. 17WRGeorge PickensDAL · I have a dreamHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    2. Week 5: expected 12.7, likely 6.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.6
    3. Week 6: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    4. Week 7: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.9
    5. Week 8: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    7. Week 10: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.5
    8. Week 11: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.4
    9. Week 12: expected 13.0, likely 6.4–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.2
    10. Week 13: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.1
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.2
    13. Week 16: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.5
    14. Week 17: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Slow start at 16-150-0, though he led Dallas with 11 targets in Week 3 and is drawing the coverage that frees Lamb (fantasypros.com). Volume is fine and the scoreless start won't last. His bye is Week 14, the first playoff week. At 3,875 the market already pays for the 2025 version, so hold rather than buy.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.2
    Wks 14–17
    9.7
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  18. 18WRLuther Burden IIICHI · Marvins RoomBuy13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.0, likely 6.4–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.3
    2. Week 5: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    3. Week 6: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.3
    4. Week 7: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.1
    5. Week 8: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    6. Week 9: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.2
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    9. Week 12: expected 13.7, likely 6.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.7
    10. Week 13: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    11. Week 14: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    12. Week 15: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.8
    13. Week 16: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    14. Week 17: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Second-year breakout in progress: his target share rose from 19.2% to 23.3% to 32.4%, and he led Chicago with 11 targets (7-61-1) in Week 3 (draftsharks.com). He still played only 61% of snaps, so there is room to grow. Week 10 bye, 12.8 for Weeks 14-17. A cheap buy at 1,477.

    Why not the projection (12.4) Raised 0.6 over ESPN for a target share that has risen every week.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.2
    Wks 14–17
    13.5
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  19. 19WRMike EvansSF · Horus St. BrownHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.5, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    2. Week 5: expected 12.7, likely 6.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.6
    3. Week 6: expected 13.8, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.8
    4. Week 7: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.4
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    7. Week 10: expected 14.0, likely 6.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–27.1
    8. Week 11: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–24
    9. Week 12: expected 12.8, likely 6.3–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.9
    10. Week 13: expected 13.4, likely 6.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    11. Week 14: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    12. Week 15: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    13. Week 16: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.5
    14. Week 17: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Playing through fractured ribs: active for Week 4 in protective padding (49erswebzone.com). He had 12-137-2 through three weeks before getting hurt (lastwordonsports.com). The 49ers' WR room is thin: Kirk, Robinson, Pearsall and Stribling are all on IR, with Kirk not expected back before Week 6 (rotowire.com), so the targets are there if the ribs hold up. Week 8 bye.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.2
    Wks 14–17
    13.2
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  20. 20WRTee HigginsCIN · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold13.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.5, likely 6.6–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26.1
    2. Week 5: expected 7.0, likely 0–13, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.4 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    5. Week 8: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.8
    7. Week 10: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.3
    8. Week 11: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27
    9. Week 12: expected 14.0, likely 6.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27.1
    10. Week 13: expected 13.0, likely 6.4–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.2
    11. Week 14: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    12. Week 15: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    13. Week 16: expected 13.8, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.7
    14. Week 17: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Picked up an adductor injury on a fourth-quarter sideline catch in Week 4 and missed the final drive; severity unknown, Week 5 status unclear (nbcsports.com). Before that he was a 14.8 ppg No. 2, and he becomes a WR1 any week Chase sits. Week 5 is questionable, Week 6 is the bye.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.2
    Wks 14–17
    13.5
    Games
    12.5
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  21. 21WRMalik NabersNYG · Free WinSell12.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.6
    2. Week 5: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    3. Week 6: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    4. Week 7: expected 11.9, likely 5.8–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.2
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    7. Week 10: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    8. Week 11: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–24
    9. Week 12: expected 12.6, likely 6.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.5
    10. Week 13: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–24
    11. Week 14: expected 11.5, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    12. Week 15: expected 12.0, likely 5.9–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.2
    13. Week 16: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    14. Week 17: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Jaxson Dart is out for the regular season with MCL, PCL and meniscus damage, so it's Jameis Winston the rest of the way (giants.com). In Winston's first start the Giants ran 33 times to 22 passes, and Nabers turned a 27% target share into 5-26 (nbcsports.com). The talent and share are elite, but 7.2 ppg in three weeks and a run-first plan cap him. Week 8 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.6
    Above repl.
    +2.7
    Wks 14–17
    12.4
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  22. 22WRRashee RiceKC · London Bridge · out Wk 6Hold14.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.7
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: out
    4. Week 7: expected 6.7, likely 0–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.4 (questionable)
    5. Week 8: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.8
    6. Week 9: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.6
    7. Week 10: expected 13.8, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.8
    8. Week 11: expected 14.6, likely 8.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.6
    9. Week 12: expected 14.6, likely 8.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.6
    10. Week 13: expected 13.5, likely 6.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26.2
    11. Week 14: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.6
    12. Week 15: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    13. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.8
    14. Week 17: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Left Week 4 in the first quarter with a hamstring injury. Reid called it a tweak, but Mike Silver reports he could miss several weeks, and the Chiefs are already looking at veteran receivers (nbcsports.com). Week 5 is a bye, so we mark Week 6 out and Week 7 questionable. When healthy he scored 12.7 a game. Selling now means selling at the bottom, so hold and stash.

    Why not the projection (14.8) Week 6 out and Week 7 questionable for a hamstring reported to cost several weeks; ppg trimmed to 14.0 toward his 12.7 actual.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.5
    Above repl.
    +2.6
    Wks 14–17
    14.0
    Games
    11.5
    London Bridge →
  23. 23WRDeVonta SmithPHI · Team Cash Money SquaHold15.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 7.3, likely 0–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.3 (questionable)
    4. Week 7: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.5
    5. Week 8: expected 15.2, likely 8.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.7
    6. Week 9: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.1
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 14.4, likely 8.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.2
    9. Week 12: expected 15.6, likely 9–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.2
    10. Week 13: expected 15.3, likely 8.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–26.8
    11. Week 14: expected 15.3, likely 8.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.7
    12. Week 15: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.9
    13. Week 16: expected 14.4, likely 8.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.3
    14. Week 17: expected 14.8, likely 8.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–25.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Out Week 4 with a hamstring injury that the Inquirer says could cost 2-3 games; if he misses all three, his target return is Week 7 vs Dallas (sports.yahoo.com). It's a recurring hamstring that also cost him training camp. ESPN already zeroes Weeks 4-5, so we add Week 6 as questionable. When healthy he is the Eagles' top option at 16.2 ppg, but expect a lower grade until he's back. Week 10 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.2
    Above repl.
    +2.3
    Wks 14–17
    14.7
    Games
    10.5
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  24. 24WRJalen CokerCAR · Abhinav's TeamHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 13.0, likely 6.4–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.2
    4. Week 7: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.1
    5. Week 8: expected 13.6, likely 6.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.3
    6. Week 9: expected 12.6, likely 6.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.5
    7. Week 10: expected 13.5, likely 6.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26.3
    8. Week 11: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    9. Week 12: expected 12.8, likely 6.2–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.7
    10. Week 13: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.5
    11. Week 14: expected 13.7, likely 6.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.6
    12. Week 15: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    13. Week 16: expected 12.7, likely 6.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.6
    14. Week 17: expected 12.7, likely 6.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Was Carolina's leading receiver (18-222-2) before a quad injury in Week 3; he was questionable and then out for Week 4 (espn.com). With the Week 5 bye, he has two weeks to heal, and ESPN already zeroes both. Expect him back in Week 6 as Bryce Young's most reliable read, but the ceiling is limited.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.2
    Above repl.
    +2.3
    Wks 14–17
    13.1
    Games
    12
    Abhinav's Team →
  25. 25WRTetairoa McMillanCAR · Abhinav's TeamSell12.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.0, likely 6.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–27.1
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 11.7, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.8
    4. Week 7: expected 11.7, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.8
    5. Week 8: expected 12.3, likely 6–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–23.9
    6. Week 9: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.1
    7. Week 10: expected 12.3, likely 6–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.8
    8. Week 11: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.6
    9. Week 12: expected 11.5, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    10. Week 13: expected 10.9, likely 5.3–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.1
    11. Week 14: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.2
    12. Week 15: expected 12.1, likely 6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.6
    13. Week 16: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    14. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Carolina's No. 1, but Bryce Young's offense held him to 2-17 on five targets in Week 3 once Coker left and defenses keyed on him (nbcsports.com). 9.8 ppg through three weeks and a Week 5 bye. More volume while Coker and Legette are out helps, but the QB play caps him. At 2,768 the market still pays for draft-day hype.

    Why not the projection (13.6) Cut 1.6 below ESPN for a 9.8 ppg start with a weak passing game.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.1
    Above repl.
    +2.2
    Wks 14–17
    11.9
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  26. 26WRDeebo Samuel Sr.SF · Team Cash Money SquaHold11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.9, likely 3.9–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.6
    2. Week 5: expected 11.0, likely 4–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.9
    3. Week 6: expected 12.2, likely 4.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–26.6
    4. Week 7: expected 11.5, likely 4.2–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 11.8, likely 4.3–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.8
    7. Week 10: expected 12.2, likely 4.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–26.6
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 3.9–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.5
    9. Week 12: expected 11.2, likely 4.1–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.3
    10. Week 13: expected 11.8, likely 4.3–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.8
    11. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 4.1–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.6
    12. Week 15: expected 11.7, likely 4.2–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.4
    13. Week 16: expected 11.4, likely 4.1–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.9
    14. Week 17: expected 11.6, likely 4.2–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.3
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Mostly a schemed-touch player: 9-79-1 in Weeks 1-2, then an 80-yard hook-and-ladder score in Week 3 without a catch (cbssports.com). With four 49ers WRs on IR he is the de facto No. 2, but Christian Kirk could return around Week 6 (rotowire.com). Week 8 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.7
    Above repl.
    +1.8
    Wks 14–17
    11.5
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  27. 27WRDenzel BostonCLE · Los Angeles LesbiansHold11.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.9, likely 5.4–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.2
    2. Week 5: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.7
    3. Week 6: expected 11.5, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.3
    4. Week 7: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    5. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.9
    6. Week 9: expected 11.6, likely 5.7–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.5
    7. Week 10: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.4
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 11.5, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    10. Week 13: expected 11.5, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.3
    11. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 5.6–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    12. Week 15: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    13. Week 16: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.9
    14. Week 17: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–23
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie has 2 TDs in three games and played 89% of snaps in Week 3. NBC calls him Cleveland's emerging primary receiving weapon while Jerry Jeudy fades (nbcsports.com). His 14.2 PPG is propped up by TDs (only 4 targets in Week 3), and Deshaun Watson's passing caps the offense, so we land between ESPN and his actual output. The every-down role is real.

    Why not the projection (10.9) Bumped above ESPN's 10.9 for an every-down rookie role (89% snaps) and 2 early TDs, but not to his 14.2 actual since the TD pace won't last on this offense.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.5
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.5
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  28. 28WRJakobi MeyersJAX · Horus St. BrownBuy11.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.4, likely 6.7–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–20
    2. Week 5: expected 11.2, likely 6.6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.6
    3. Week 6: expected 10.9, likely 6.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–19.2
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 11.7, likely 6.9–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–20.4
    6. Week 9: expected 11.3, likely 6.7–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.8
    7. Week 10: expected 11.2, likely 6.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.6
    8. Week 11: expected 11.3, likely 6.7–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.9
    9. Week 12: expected 11.3, likely 6.7–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.9
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 6.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.6
    11. Week 14: expected 11.0, likely 6.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–19.2
    12. Week 15: expected 10.9, likely 6.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–19.1
    13. Week 16: expected 11.8, likely 7–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–20.8
    14. Week 17: expected 11.8, likely 7–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–20.6
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Meyers led Jacksonville with 9 targets in Week 3 and has caught 10 of 11 targets for 132 yards and 2 TDs this season (cbssports.com). Brian Thomas Jr. has played as few as 23 snaps, so Meyers and Parker Washington are Trevor Lawrence's main wideouts. Reliable hands in a rising offense at a ~550 price make him a cheap WR3.

    Why not the projection (10.7) Above ESPN's 10.7: he's become the Jaguars' target leader while BTJ's snaps shrink.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.5
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  29. 29WRStefon DiggsWSH · Marvins RoomHold11.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    2. Week 5: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    3. Week 6: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    6. Week 9: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.9
    7. Week 10: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.9
    8. Week 11: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    9. Week 12: expected 11.7, likely 5.7–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.6
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    11. Week 14: expected 10.9, likely 5.3–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.1
    12. Week 15: expected 11.1, likely 5.5–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    13. Week 16: expected 10.1, likely 5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.7
    14. Week 17: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Diggs is Washington's clear No. 2 behind Terry McLaurin. He has 14.8 PPG, but that rests on TDs in Weeks 1-2, and his 4-33 on 7 targets in Week 3 is the floor (nbcsports.com). At 32 his target share is steady but not dominant, and TDs will slow, so he's an 11-point WR3 who loses value to TD regression rather than to any change in role. His Week 7 bye is clean for the playoffs.

    Why not the projection (10.9) Slightly above ESPN's 10.9 given 7+ targets a week as the WR2, well below his 14.8 actual because the two early TDs inflate it.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.5
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    10.8
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  30. 30WRJosh DownsIND · Marvins RoomHold11.2ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.0, likely 8.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–24.5
    2. Week 5: expected 12.5, likely 7.4–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–21.9
    3. Week 6: expected 12.9, likely 7.6–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–22.6
    4. Week 7: expected 11.9, likely 7.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–20.9
    5. Week 8: expected 10.5, likely 6.2–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.5
    6. Week 9: expected 11.1, likely 6.6–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.5
    7. Week 10: expected 11.0, likely 6.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–19.2
    8. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 6–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 4–17.9
    9. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 6.3–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 10.4, likely 6.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.2
    12. Week 15: expected 10.4, likely 6.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.6, likely 6.3–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.5
    14. Week 17: expected 10.1, likely 6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 4–17.7
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Downs led the Colts with 11 targets in Week 3 (5-77) with Alec Pierce out with a heel injury, as Indianapolis worked the middle of the field (nbcsports.com). Keenan Allen (groin) was ruled out for Week 4, which pushed even more volume his way (nbcsports.com). The slot role gives him a steady 10-12 PPR floor, and his Week 13 bye is outside the playoff window. Fair price at ~1,375.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.4
    Above repl.
    +1.5
    Wks 14–17
    10.4
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  31. 31WRDJ MooreBUF · London BridgeSell11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.8
    2. Week 5: expected 5.6, likely 0–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.9 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 11.6, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.8
    6. Week 9: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21
    7. Week 10: expected 11.5, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    8. Week 11: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    9. Week 12: expected 11.6, likely 5.7–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.5
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.8
    11. Week 14: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–23
    12. Week 15: expected 11.6, likely 5.7–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.6
    13. Week 16: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.5
    14. Week 17: expected 12.0, likely 5.9–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Left Week 4 in the second quarter with his second shoulder injury of the season and was downgraded to doubtful (buffalobills.com). The Week 4 injury report had already listed an AC joint sprain (nbcsports.com). Even healthy in Buffalo he was boom-bust (21.0, -0.1, 12.7). Week 5 is questionable, Week 7 is the bye.

    Why not the projection (13.3) Trimmed 1.8 below ESPN for a reinjured shoulder and an 11.2 ppg start in a spread-out Bills passing game.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.3
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    11.6
    Games
    12.5
    London Bridge →
  32. 32WRJaylen WaddleDEN · Team Cash Money SquaHold11.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.4, likely 4.1–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.8
    2. Week 5: expected 10.9, likely 3.9–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.7
    3. Week 6: expected 10.5, likely 3.8–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.8
    4. Week 7: expected 11.4, likely 4.1–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.8
    5. Week 8: expected 10.9, likely 4–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.7
    6. Week 9: expected 10.8, likely 3.9–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.4
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 11.0, likely 4–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–23.9
    9. Week 12: expected 10.5, likely 3.8–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.7
    10. Week 13: expected 11.6, likely 4.2–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.2
    11. Week 14: expected 10.8, likely 3.9–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.5
    12. Week 15: expected 10.9, likely 3.9–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.6
    13. Week 16: expected 11.6, likely 4.2–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.2
    14. Week 17: expected 10.4, likely 3.8–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Waddle is Denver's volume WR1 on paper: he tied for the team lead with 7 targets in Week 3 but turned them into 2 catches for 10 yards, and has 12 receiving yards combined in Weeks 1 and 3 around a 138-yard Week 2 (rotowire.com). Bo Nix's passing game under first-time play-caller Davis Webb hasn't produced many big plays yet, so the boom weeks come with a 1.2-point floor. The playoff schedule is neutral, and the market (~1,850) is still paying for his Miami ceiling.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.2
    Above repl.
    +1.3
    Wks 14–17
    10.9
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  33. 33WRLadd McConkeyLAC · Marvins RoomHold11.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.8
    2. Week 5: expected 5.4, likely 0–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.3 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.7
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 10.9, likely 5.3–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21
    6. Week 9: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    7. Week 10: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.1
    8. Week 11: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    9. Week 12: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.4
    10. Week 13: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.3
    11. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.9
    12. Week 15: expected 11.5, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.3
    13. Week 16: expected 11.9, likely 5.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.1
    14. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    McConkey led the Chargers with 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD through three games, but a foot injury made him questionable for Week 4 (sports.yahoo.com), and he aggravated it and was ruled out of that game (draftsharks.com). There's no timeline yet, so Week 5 is a coin flip. When he plays he's Justin Herbert's most reliable target, about 11-12 PPR points a game, but his ~1,950 market price is a lot for a player who keeps showing up on the injury report.

    Why not the projection (11.3) Level kept at ESPN's 11.3; Week 5 marked questionable after he re-aggravated the foot in Week 4.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.1
    Above repl.
    +1.2
    Wks 14–17
    11.5
    Games
    12.5
    Marvins Room →
  34. 34WRCarnell TateTEN · I have a dreamHold10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.9, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–17.3
    2. Week 5: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.9
    3. Week 6: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.9
    4. Week 7: expected 10.3, likely 5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.9
    5. Week 8: expected 10.5, likely 5.1–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.3
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 10.6, likely 5.2–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.5
    8. Week 11: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.4
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 5.1–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.2
    10. Week 13: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.3
    11. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.9
    12. Week 15: expected 10.9, likely 5.3–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.1
    13. Week 16: expected 10.4, likely 5.1–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.2
    14. Week 17: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.8
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie leads Tennessee with a ~23% target share, but the offense is bad enough that his best game was 6-58 on nine targets (nbcsports.com). ESPN's 14.0 assumes a passing game the Titans don't have; at 8.4 actual he is near replacement level. Bench stash for dynasty-minded managers, not a weekly starter yet.

    Why not the projection (14.0) ESPN's 14.0 is far above his 8.4 actual in a weak Titans passing game; we set 10.5 for a team-leading share in a bad offense.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.8
    Above repl.
    +0.9
    Wks 14–17
    10.7
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  35. 35WRTerry McLaurinWSH · Los Angeles LesbiansHold12.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 6.2, likely 0–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.7 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 12.0, likely 5.9–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.3
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 12.0, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    6. Week 9: expected 11.7, likely 5.7–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.6
    7. Week 10: expected 12.2, likely 6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.6
    8. Week 11: expected 12.2, likely 6–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.7
    9. Week 12: expected 12.6, likely 6.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.4
    10. Week 13: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    11. Week 14: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.9
    12. Week 15: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    13. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.4
    14. Week 17: expected 11.9, likely 5.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.1
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A Friday hamstring tweak got worse and made him inactive for Week 4 (nbcsports.com). Jayden Daniels also sat with Marcus Mariota starting (si.com). Week 5 vs the Giants is questionable for him, and the offense swings with Daniels' elbow. 10.0 ppg so far, Week 7 bye.

    Why not the projection (12.6) Trimmed 0.6 for a 10.0 ppg start and QB uncertainty; Week 5 questionable for the hamstring.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.8
    Above repl.
    +0.9
    Wks 14–17
    11.7
    Games
    11.5
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  36. 36WRMalik WashingtonMIA · Marvins RoomHold10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.2, likely 4.5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.9
    2. Week 5: expected 10.6, likely 5.2–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.6
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 10.4, likely 5.1–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.1
    5. Week 8: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.8
    6. Week 9: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    7. Week 10: expected 10.7, likely 5.3–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.8
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21
    9. Week 12: expected 10.5, likely 5.2–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.4
    10. Week 13: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    11. Week 14: expected 10.6, likely 5.2–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.5
    12. Week 15: expected 10.7, likely 5.3–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.8
    13. Week 16: expected 10.6, likely 5.2–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.6
    14. Week 17: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Has a team-high 23 targets, but only 12-152 from them (rotowire.com), and the volume came with rookie Caleb Douglas hurt (ankle, out Weeks 3-4: nbcsports.com). When Douglas returns, the share drops. A flex for desperate managers.

    Why not the projection (11.9) Lowered 1.4 from ESPN because his 8.7 ppg came with Douglas out, and the share shrinks when Douglas returns.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.7
    Above repl.
    +0.8
    Wks 14–17
    10.7
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  37. 37WRDK MetcalfPIT · Kirkland SignatureHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.8, likely 3.2–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.1
    2. Week 5: expected 10.6, likely 3.8–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.1
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    4. Week 7: expected 10.5, likely 3.8–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.8
    5. Week 8: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.6
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 10.1, likely 3.7–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.9
    8. Week 11: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.5
    9. Week 12: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.9
    10. Week 13: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.4
    11. Week 14: expected 10.0, likely 3.6–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.7
    12. Week 15: expected 10.3, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.1
    14. Week 17: expected 10.1, likely 3.7–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Under 40 yards in all three games, his longest catch is 16, and he dropped a key third down in Week 3; Aaron Rodgers prefers intermediate throws to the deep shots Metcalf needs (nbcsports.com). He is TD-or-nothing at 8.9 ppg. ESPN's 11.5 is too generous, and he is roughly a replacement-level receiver until the connection improves. Week 9 bye.

    Why not the projection (11.5) Cut 1.5 below ESPN after three games under 40 yards with Rodgers avoiding deep shots.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    10.2
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  38. 38WREmeka EgbukaTB · Marvins RoomSell10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.7
    2. Week 5: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–19
    3. Week 6: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.4
    4. Week 7: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–19
    5. Week 8: expected 9.9, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    6. Week 9: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.7, likely 5.3–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.8
    9. Week 12: expected 9.9, likely 4.9–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.3
    10. Week 13: expected 10.1, likely 4.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.5
    11. Week 14: expected 9.9, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    12. Week 15: expected 10.3, likely 5.1–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20
    13. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 4.8–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 4.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.5
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Egbuka leads the Bucs with 20 targets through three weeks, including 9 in Week 3 (cbssports.com). But Baker Mayfield dislocated his throwing thumb and is out until Week 7 at the earliest, with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starting (nfl.com). His 10-11 PPR floor drops for Weeks 5-6, and ~1,550 is a WR2 price for a WR3 producer, so sell now and let someone else wait out Daniels.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    9.9
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  39. 39WRJordan AddisonMIN · Free WinHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.0, likely 4.7–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–28.2
    2. Week 5: expected 9.8, likely 3.5–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.2
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.6
    5. Week 8: expected 10.3, likely 3.7–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.3
    6. Week 9: expected 10.1, likely 3.6–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.9
    7. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 3.5–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.2
    8. Week 11: expected 9.5, likely 3.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.7
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 3.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.6
    10. Week 13: expected 9.5, likely 3.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.7
    11. Week 14: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    12. Week 15: expected 10.4, likely 3.8–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.6
    13. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 3.6–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.8
    14. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Addison's 20-point Week 3 (5-90-1 on 9 targets) came with Justin Jefferson leaving after 7 snaps, and his 0 and 4.1 before that came with Carson Wentz under center after Kyler Murray's concussion (nbcsports.com). Jefferson's ankle sprain is short-term and he's expected back for Week 5 (profootballrumors.com), which puts Addison back at WR2 on a team with QB problems. He's a boom-or-bust FLEX, not the steady 11-point player ESPN projects.

    Why not the projection (11.4) ESPN's 11.4 is too high for a WR2 behind a healthy Jefferson with a shaky QB situation; Weeks 1-2 (4.1 total) are closer to his floor than Week 3 is to his median.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    9.7
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  40. 40WRKalif RaymondCHI · Abhinav's TeamHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.1, likely 6–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.6
    2. Week 5: expected 10.1, likely 4.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.6
    3. Week 6: expected 9.5, likely 4.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    4. Week 7: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–18.2
    5. Week 8: expected 9.2, likely 4.5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.8
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.3
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.0, likely 4.9–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.4
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 5.1–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.1
    10. Week 13: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–19
    11. Week 14: expected 10.1, likely 5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.6
    12. Week 15: expected 10.1, likely 4.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.5
    13. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 4.9–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.4
    14. Week 17: expected 10.5, likely 5.1–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Raymond has been the surprise of Chicago's offense: 19 catches on 21 targets for 214 yards and a TD through Week 3, ahead of Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III (fantasypros.com). He knows Ben Johnson's system from Detroit, and short targets suit Case Keenum. When Caleb Williams returns around Week 5-6, the ball should go downfield to Odunze more often, so we expect about 10 PPR points, not 15.5.

    Why not the projection (8.2) Well above ESPN's 8.2 for a real slot role (21 targets, 19 catches), but below his 15.5 because Caleb Williams' return should move targets to Odunze.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    10.2
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  41. 41WRRome OdunzeCHI · Hanging with HernandezBuy10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 3.3–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.6
    2. Week 5: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.2
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    4. Week 7: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.9
    5. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.3
    6. Week 9: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.2
    9. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 3.8–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23
    10. Week 13: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.6
    11. Week 14: expected 10.3, likely 3.7–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.5
    12. Week 15: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.2
    14. Week 17: expected 10.7, likely 3.9–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Odunze has scored exactly 7.2, 7.3 and 7.4 as the deep threat in Ben Johnson's offense, which matters less with Case Keenum checking it down while Caleb Williams is out (nbcsports.com). Williams' Grade 2 hamstring strain from Week 2 carries a 3-4 week timeline, which points to a Week 5-6 return (espn.com). With his real QB back he's a 10-11 point WR2/3 with spike weeks, so ~730 is a buy-low price.

    Why not the projection (11.0) Shaded below ESPN's 11.0 because Kalif Raymond has taken the short targets and Odunze's role depends on Williams, but well above his 7.3 actual since Williams is due back soon.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    10.4
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  42. 42WRDontayvion WicksPHI · Hanging with HernandezHold9.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.8, likely 4.3–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.8
    2. Week 5: expected 11.2, likely 4–17, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.3
    3. Week 6: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.2
    4. Week 7: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.6
    5. Week 8: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21
    6. Week 9: expected 9.5, likely 3.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.7
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    9. Week 12: expected 9.8, likely 3.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.4
    10. Week 13: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    11. Week 14: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21
    12. Week 15: expected 9.0, likely 3.3–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    14. Week 17: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Wicks has turned 15 targets into 9-179-1 as Philadelphia's deep-threat WR2 (cbssports.com). DeVonta Smith's hamstring sidelines him for multiple games (no more than three expected, no IR), which makes Wicks the No. 1 receiver for now (profootballrumors.com). That boost is short-lived: ESPN's 11+ in Weeks 4-5 drops to about 9 when Smith returns. He's a usable bridge starter at a ~480 price.

    Why not the projection (9.3) A touch above ESPN's 9.3: he's outplayed Makai Lemon for the WR2 job and is the WR1 while Smith is out.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.1
    Above repl.
    +0.2
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  43. 43WRXavier WorthyKC · Ari's Astounding TeamBuy9.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.5
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    4. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.9
    5. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    6. Week 9: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21
    7. Week 10: expected 9.5, likely 3.4–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.6
    8. Week 11: expected 10.1, likely 3.7–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.9
    9. Week 12: expected 10.0, likely 3.6–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.2, likely 3.3–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20
    11. Week 14: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.9
    12. Week 15: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.3
    13. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    14. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Worthy has been the No. 2 behind Rashee Rice, who drew 9 targets to Worthy's 2 in Week 3. But Rice pulled up with a left hamstring injury in Week 4 and was downgraded to doubtful (si.com). If Rice misses time, Worthy becomes Patrick Mahomes' top wideout heading into the Week 5 bye. At ~330 that's cheap, and the boom/bust profile is part of the price.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.9
    Above repl.
    0.0
    Wks 14–17
    9.5
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  44. 44WRWan'Dale RobinsonTEN · Hanging with HernandezHold9.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.5, likely 4.6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    2. Week 5: expected 9.1, likely 4.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.7
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 4.7–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.7
    4. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 4.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.7
    5. Week 8: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–18.2
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 9.5, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    8. Week 11: expected 9.9, likely 4.9–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.3
    9. Week 12: expected 9.3, likely 4.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–18.1
    10. Week 13: expected 9.9, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    11. Week 14: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.7
    12. Week 15: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–19
    13. Week 16: expected 9.3, likely 4.6–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–18
    14. Week 17: expected 9.1, likely 4.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Robinson comfortably led Tennessee in targets (11) and catches (7) in Week 3 and scored his first Titans TD (nbcsports.com). With Calvin Ridley pushed aside, he and rookie Carnell Tate are the two reliable targets, though Cam Ward's accuracy caps the upside. He's a PPR WR3/FLEX with a volume floor (8.8, 1.9, 18.7) at a ~460 price.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.8
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    9.6
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  45. 45WRA.J. BrownNE · Hanging with HernandezSell13.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.5
    6. Week 9: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.9
    7. Week 10: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.4
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    10. Week 13: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.8
    11. Week 14: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.2
    12. Week 15: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.6
    13. Week 16: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.8
    14. Week 17: expected 12.8, likely 6.3–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Brown has been on IR since a Week 1 high-ankle sprain and is eligible for Week 6. The Patriots 'hope' he's back then, but NFL Network called that aspirational after an initial 6-8 week estimate (nbcsports.com). When healthy he's Drake Maye's alpha (13-14 PPR) in a thin receiver room. Paying the ~2,840 market price means betting on a 29-year-old's ankle and getting maybe 10 games, so sell it to the market. We keep ESPN's Week 8 return as the base case; if he really makes Week 6, that's two bonus starts the board doesn't count.

    Why not the projection (13.9) Slightly below ESPN's 13.9 for a high-ankle sprain that may limit him in his first games back.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    -0.2
    Wks 14–17
    13.0
    Games
    9
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  46. 46WRJameson WilliamsDET · Team Cash Money SquaSell9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 3.2–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.5
    2. Week 5: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.4
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.4
    5. Week 8: expected 8.5, likely 3.1–13, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.5
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.5
    7. Week 10: expected 8.8, likely 3.2–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.1
    8. Week 11: expected 8.9, likely 3.2–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.3
    9. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.9, likely 3.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.4
    11. Week 14: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.9
    12. Week 15: expected 8.4, likely 3–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.2
    13. Week 16: expected 9.2, likely 3.3–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.1
    14. Week 17: expected 9.0, likely 3.3–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.6
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Williams hasn't topped four catches in a game: a 12.5% target share in Week 3 trailed both Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown (8 each), and NBC says he's 'tumbling back into the WR3 ranks' (nbcsports.com). Without a big target share he needs long TDs, and he scored 8.5, 5.3 and 8.9 without any. Sell to anyone still paying for the 2024 breakout at ~960.

    Why not the projection (10.4) Below ESPN's 10.4: a 12.5% target share in Detroit's offense makes him a TD-or-bust WR4 until the usage changes.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    -0.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  47. 47WRTre TuckerLV · London BridgeHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.8
    2. Week 5: expected 9.0, likely 3.3–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.6
    3. Week 6: expected 10.0, likely 3.6–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.7
    4. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    5. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.3
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.4
    7. Week 10: expected 8.4, likely 3.1–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.3
    8. Week 11: expected 8.2, likely 3–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.9
    9. Week 12: expected 8.5, likely 3.1–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 8.9, likely 3.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.4
    12. Week 15: expected 8.4, likely 3–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.2
    13. Week 16: expected 8.9, likely 3.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.4
    14. Week 17: expected 9.2, likely 3.3–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Tucker is a 57% snap player (40 of 70 in Week 3), and Brock Bowers takes the volume (13 targets that day) (cbssports.com). He's turned 15 targets into 11-189-1, and one 22.9-point spike accounts for most of his 12.0 PPG. Expect 8-9 points with occasional big games. Speculative FLEX at a ~260 price.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    -0.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  48. 48WRDevaughn VeleNO · Abhinav's TeamHold8.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.3, likely 6–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–23.9
    2. Week 5: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    3. Week 6: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.1
    4. Week 7: expected 11.9, likely 5.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.1
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    7. Week 10: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.3
    8. Week 11: expected 7.3, likely 3.6–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.2
    9. Week 12: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.3
    10. Week 13: expected 7.7, likely 3.8–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    11. Week 14: expected 7.2, likely 3.6–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14.1
    12. Week 15: expected 7.1, likely 3.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.7
    13. Week 16: expected 7.8, likely 3.8–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.1
    14. Week 17: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Vele is New Orleans' clear No. 2 receiver with 22 targets, 15 catches, 172 yards and a TD through three games (nbcsports.com). ESPN's shape is right: about 10-11 a week until Jordyn Tyson returns (Week 9 most likely), then about 6 as the WR3. We scale him up for the role he's earned, but his playoff value depends on how healthy Tyson is.

    Why not the projection (7.6) Above ESPN's 7.6 average because his 12.7 actual PPG on 7 targets a game says the pre-Tyson projection is too low; ESPN's post-Week 9 drop is kept.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.2
    Above repl.
    -0.7
    Wks 14–17
    7.3
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  49. 49WRKhalil ShakirBUF · Los Angeles LesbiansHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.5
    2. Week 5: expected 7.9, likely 3.8–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.2
    3. Week 6: expected 8.1, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.9
    6. Week 9: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.7
    7. Week 10: expected 8.1, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    8. Week 11: expected 8.4, likely 4.1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.3
    9. Week 12: expected 8.1, likely 4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.7
    10. Week 13: expected 7.8, likely 3.8–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.3, likely 4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–16
    12. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.7
    13. Week 16: expected 7.7, likely 3.8–11, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15
    14. Week 17: expected 8.4, likely 4.1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Shakir's role is secure (72.6% of snaps, second among Bills WRs in routes in Week 3), but it produced 1 catch for 6 yards on 3 targets (nbcsports.com). Buffalo spreads the ball around, which makes him a low-aDOT PPR filler: 9.0, 6.8, 1.6 so far. Desperation FLEX only. At a ~190 price there's nothing to sell.

    Why not the projection (9.8) Below ESPN's 9.8: 5.8 actual PPG, and his snap share isn't turning into targets.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.5
    Above repl.
    -1.4
    Wks 14–17
    8.1
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  50. 50WRCourtland SuttonDEN · Horus St. BrownHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.3, likely 4.1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.2
    2. Week 5: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    4. Week 7: expected 8.3, likely 4.1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.2
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    6. Week 9: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.2
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    9. Week 12: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.5, likely 4.2–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.5
    11. Week 14: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.3
    12. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    13. Week 16: expected 8.4, likely 4.1–12, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.4
    14. Week 17: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Sutton tied for the team lead with 7 targets and led Denver with 46 yards in Week 3, and NBC still had him 'off the FLEX radar' because the passing game is stuck in neutral (nbcsports.com). With Waddle there he's the No. 2 option, and 5.4 PPG with 3.1/5.5/7.6 is a long way from ESPN's 10. Red-zone size gives him some TD equity, but he's a bye-week fill-in.

    Why not the projection (10.1) Cut from ESPN's 10.1: 5.4 actual PPG as the WR2 behind Waddle in a passing game that isn't producing.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.0
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  51. 51WRKC ConcepcionCLE · Hanging with HernandezSell8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    2. Week 5: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    3. Week 6: expected 8.1, likely 4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.8
    4. Week 7: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    5. Week 8: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    6. Week 9: expected 8.3, likely 4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–16
    7. Week 10: expected 7.8, likely 3.8–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.9
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    12. Week 15: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.8
    13. Week 16: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    14. Week 17: expected 8.5, likely 4.2–12, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie gets volume but nothing else: 20 targets for 80 yards (4.0 per catch) through three games, including 2 catches for 9 yards on a team-high 9 targets in Week 3 (nbcsports.com). Cleveland uses him underneath behind Deshaun Watson, so there's no big-play upside, and NBC ranks him outside the WR4s. The target share keeps him rosterable, but ESPN's 10.5 assumes efficiency he hasn't shown.

    Why not the projection (10.5) Well below ESPN's 10.5: 6.3 PPG on 20 targets, 4.0 yards per catch, and a QB who isn't improving.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.2
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  52. 52WRRoman WilsonPIT · Free WinHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.2, likely 3–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.9
    2. Week 5: expected 8.5, likely 3.1–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.4
    3. Week 6: expected 7.7, likely 2.8–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–16.8
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 3–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.2
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 2.9–12, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.1
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 8.0, likely 2.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 7.9, likely 2.9–12, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.2
    9. Week 12: expected 7.6, likely 2.8–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–16.6
    10. Week 13: expected 7.8, likely 2.8–12, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.1
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 2.9–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.3
    12. Week 15: expected 8.2, likely 3–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.8
    13. Week 16: expected 8.1, likely 2.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.6
    14. Week 17: expected 8.0, likely 2.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Wilson led Pittsburgh with 6 targets and scored a 38-yard TD in Week 3 (fantasypros.com), but his snap share fell to about 39% with Michael Pittman back. He's the third receiver behind DK Metcalf and Pittman in an Aaron Rodgers offense ranked last in EPA per pass (si.com). Waiver-level value that becomes interesting only if Pittman's plantar fascia flares again.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.1
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  53. 53WRKeenan AllenIND · I have a dreamHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 5.0, likely 0–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.9 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.9
    4. Week 7: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.3
    5. Week 8: expected 8.6, likely 4.2–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.8
    6. Week 9: expected 9.1, likely 4.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.7
    7. Week 10: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 8.3, likely 4.1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.2
    9. Week 12: expected 8.7, likely 4.2–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.8
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 8.5, likely 4.2–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.5
    12. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 4.2–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.6
    13. Week 16: expected 8.7, likely 4.3–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.8
    14. Week 17: expected 8.3, likely 4.1–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–16
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Allen (groin) was limited all week and ruled out for Week 4 against Washington; no longer-term timeline has been reported (nbcsports.com). At 34, a soft-tissue injury could linger, so Week 5 is questionable. When active he's a short-area target behind Josh Downs, with 9.2, 1.5 and 18.3 so far. Bench depth.

    Why not the projection (9.1) Level near ESPN; Week 5 marked questionable because a groin injury at 34 tends to linger past one missed game.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.3
    Above repl.
    -1.6
    Wks 14–17
    8.5
    Games
    11.5
    I have a dream →
  54. 54WRMichael Pittman Jr.PIT · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold7.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.5
    2. Week 5: expected 7.8, likely 3.8–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.1
    3. Week 6: expected 7.1, likely 3.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.8
    4. Week 7: expected 7.7, likely 3.8–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.9
    5. Week 8: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.4
    8. Week 11: expected 7.3, likely 3.6–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14.1
    9. Week 12: expected 7.0, likely 3.4–10, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.6
    10. Week 13: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    11. Week 14: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.3
    12. Week 15: expected 7.5, likely 3.7–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.6
    13. Week 16: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.4
    14. Week 17: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Pittman's plantar fascia flare-up cost him Week 2 and is a recurring issue that could keep him on injury reports all season (si.com). He's a near every-down WR2 behind DK Metcalf, but Aaron Rodgers averages 5.2 yards per attempt with no 20-yard completions through two weeks, and Pittman has 4.1 PPG. Bench depth.

    Why not the projection (8.1) Shaded below ESPN's 8.1: a lingering foot issue and the league's least efficient passing game.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -1.9
    Wks 14–17
    7.4
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  55. 55WRRomeo DoubsNE · Los Angeles LesbiansSell7.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–16
    2. Week 5: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.4
    3. Week 6: expected 8.9, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–17.3
    4. Week 7: expected 8.8, likely 4.3–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–17.1
    5. Week 8: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    6. Week 9: expected 7.1, likely 3.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.9
    7. Week 10: expected 7.5, likely 3.7–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.5
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 6.9, likely 3.4–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.4
    10. Week 13: expected 7.3, likely 3.6–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14.1
    11. Week 14: expected 6.4, likely 3.1–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.4
    12. Week 15: expected 6.8, likely 3.3–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–13.1
    13. Week 16: expected 6.8, likely 3.3–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–13.3
    14. Week 17: expected 6.6, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.8
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Even with A.J. Brown out, Doubs has 6 catches in three games and NBC calls him 'an afterthought in the New England offense' (nbcsports.com). ESPN's 10+ projections for Weeks 4-7 assume he takes Brown's targets, and that hasn't happened. Brown's return (Week 6 at the earliest) then pushes him to WR3. He's an every-down player with no target share.

    Why not the projection (8.9) Below ESPN's 8.9: 6.8 actual PPG with Brown out, and less once Brown returns.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -1.9
    Wks 14–17
    6.7
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  56. 56WRMakai LemonPHI · Team Cash Money SquaSell6.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.4
    2. Week 5: expected 8.9, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–17.3
    3. Week 6: expected 6.0, likely 3–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.7
    4. Week 7: expected 6.4, likely 3.1–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.4
    5. Week 8: expected 6.2, likely 3.1–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    6. Week 9: expected 6.1, likely 3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–11.9
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.3
    10. Week 13: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    11. Week 14: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    12. Week 15: expected 5.8, likely 2.8–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.2
    13. Week 16: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    14. Week 17: expected 6.0, likely 2.9–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The first-round rookie plays a lot of snaps and produces little: 5 targets in his first two games for under 25 yards, while Nick Sirianni praises his blocking (draftsharks.com). DeVonta Smith's multi-game hamstring absence opens some targets (profootballrumors.com), but Dontayvion Wicks is first in line. His 3.4 PPG doesn't support the ~510 price.

    Why not the projection (7.6) Below ESPN's 7.6: 3.4 actual PPG, and Wicks, not Lemon, gets the first look while Smith is out.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.1
    Above repl.
    -2.8
    Wks 14–17
    6.0
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  57. 57WRChris Godwin Jr.TB · Ari's Astounding TeamSell6.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.4, likely 3.1–9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.3
    2. Week 5: expected 6.4, likely 3.2–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.5
    3. Week 6: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    4. Week 7: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.5
    5. Week 8: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.6
    6. Week 9: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 7.1, likely 3.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.7
    9. Week 12: expected 6.6, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.7
    10. Week 13: expected 6.6, likely 3.3–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.9
    11. Week 14: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.7
    12. Week 15: expected 6.8, likely 3.3–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–13.2
    13. Week 16: expected 6.4, likely 3.1–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.5
    14. Week 17: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.2
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Godwin is third among Tampa Bay receivers in snap share (62%) and hasn't been targeted more than four times in a game (cbssports.com). Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels now starts until Baker Mayfield returns, Week 7 at the earliest (nfl.com). Ted Hurst out-targeted him through three weeks, so he's bench depth.

    Why not the projection (7.2) Below ESPN's 7.2: at most 4 targets a game behind Egbuka and Hurst, with a rookie QB for at least two more weeks.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.0
    Above repl.
    -2.9
    Wks 14–17
    6.5
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  58. 58WRJordyn TysonNO · Horus St. BrownHold9.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 0–8, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.9 (questionable)
    7. Week 10: expected 9.6, likely 4.7–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.5
    8. Week 11: expected 9.5, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 4.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    10. Week 13: expected 9.9, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    11. Week 14: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.3
    12. Week 15: expected 9.2, likely 4.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.8
    13. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 4.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.5
    14. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie has been on IR with a hamstring injury since a mid-August practice. Kellen Moore said Oct. 1 he doesn't expect Tyson to practice next week, so Week 5 is unlikely and Week 6 practice is more realistic (nbcsports.com). With a Week 7 London game and a Week 8 bye, ESPN's Week 9 return date is reasonable, but he's had recurring hamstring problems since college, so Week 9 is questionable. Once back he should take the WR1/2 job from Vele for the playoff run. Tier moved up one (T8 to T7) for playoff-window upside: Weeks 9-17 as a starting outside receiver.

    Why not the projection (10.4) Slightly below ESPN's 10.4 for a rookie returning from a recurring hamstring injury midseason; ESPN's Weeks 4-8 zeroes are correct, and Week 9 is questionable.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.8
    Above repl.
    -3.1
    Wks 14–17
    9.5
    Games
    8.5
    Horus St. Brown →
  59. 59WRBrian Thomas Jr.JAX · Kirkland SignatureSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.6
    2. Week 5: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    3. Week 6: expected 5.7, likely 2.8–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.1
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 6.1, likely 3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–11.9
    6. Week 9: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.5
    7. Week 10: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.5
    8. Week 11: expected 6.0, likely 2.9–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.6
    9. Week 12: expected 6.0, likely 2.9–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.6
    10. Week 13: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    11. Week 14: expected 5.8, likely 2.8–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.2
    12. Week 15: expected 5.7, likely 2.8–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.1
    13. Week 16: expected 6.2, likely 3.1–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    14. Week 17: expected 6.2, likely 3–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    BTJ played 23 snaps and drew 1 target in Week 3. Coach Liam Coen pointed to 12-personnel packages, and NBC notes his usage 'has been spotty even in two-receiver sets' (nbcsports.com). Meyers and Parker Washington are ahead of him for targets, and 7, 7, 1.8 is what a rotational player scores. The ~520 market is still paying for the 2024 breakout. Sell while the name still gets offers.

    Why not the projection (7.6) Below ESPN's 7.6: he's a part-time player (23 snaps, 13 routes in Week 3) behind Meyers and Washington.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    -3.3
    Wks 14–17
    6.0
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  60. 60WRMarvin Harrison Jr.ARI · Ari's Astounding TeamSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.6, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.8
    2. Week 5: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.6
    3. Week 6: expected 5.5, likely 2.7–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–10.8
    4. Week 7: expected 5.6, likely 2.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–10.9
    5. Week 8: expected 6.2, likely 3–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12
    6. Week 9: expected 5.5, likely 2.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–10.7
    7. Week 10: expected 5.7, likely 2.8–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11
    8. Week 11: expected 5.7, likely 2.8–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.1
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    10. Week 13: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.5
    13. Week 16: expected 6.1, likely 3–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–11.7
    14. Week 17: expected 6.0, likely 2.9–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.6
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    MHJ drew fewer than 10% of targets on Jacoby Brissett's 52 attempts in Week 3, and Michael Wilson is Brissett's preferred wideout behind Trey McBride (nbcsports.com). Coach Mike LaFleur says he won't manufacture touches, and NBC calls him 'a low-end fantasy WR4 at best.' The only upside is a deadline trade to a team that wants him. At ~600 the market is still paying for his draft slot.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.5
    Above repl.
    -3.4
    Wks 14–17
    4.5
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  61. 61WRCalvin RidleyTEN · Ari's Astounding TeamSell2.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 2.1, likely 1–2.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–4
    2. Week 5: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.7
    3. Week 6: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5
    4. Week 7: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.7
    5. Week 8: expected 2.5, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.8
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 2.5, likely 1.2–3.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.9
    8. Week 11: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5
    9. Week 12: expected 2.5, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.8
    10. Week 13: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5.1
    11. Week 14: expected 2.7, likely 1.3–3.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5.2
    12. Week 15: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5
    13. Week 16: expected 2.5, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.8
    14. Week 17: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.7
    Points by week, 0–10. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    ESPN's 2.9 is a role projection, not an injury. In Week 3 Ridley played 20 snaps, fourth among Titans WRs behind Carnell Tate (53), Elic Ayomanor (48) and Wan'Dale Robinson (38), and he has 2 catches for 35 yards in three games (cbssports.com). Tennessee is giving his snaps to the younger Ayomanor, so he's a WR4 on a bad offense. Droppable.

    Why not the projection (2.9) Slightly under ESPN's 2.9: he's been passed by Ayomanor and is down to a 20-snap rotation role.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    2.3
    Above repl.
    -6.6
    Wks 14–17
    2.6
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  62. 62WRJalen McMillanTB · Kirkland SignatureSell4.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    9. Week 12: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    10. Week 13: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    11. Week 14: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    12. Week 15: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    13. Week 16: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    14. Week 17: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    Points by week, 0–10. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    McMillan sprained the PCL in his left knee in Week 3, went on IR Sept. 30, and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks (cbssports.com). That points to a Week 9-11 return around Tampa's Week 10 bye. He saw little action before the injury, and rookie Ted Hurst has taken the WR3 job behind Egbuka and Godwin. Even back by Week 11 he's a 4-5 point depth receiver. Droppable. ESPN projects him at zero all season; this board adds him back at 4.5 a game from Week 11.

    Why not the projection (4.5) We overwrote ESPN's all-zero projection: CBS has the PCL sprain at 6-8 weeks from Week 3, so Weeks 11-17 (after Tampa's Week 10 bye) are set at 4.5 as a low-volume WR4.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    2.3
    Above repl.
    -6.6
    Wks 14–17
    4.5
    Games
    7
    Kirkland Signature →

The analyst's notes

The first board of 2026 covers all 192 rostered players, with a projection for every week from 4 through 17 in our scoring. Tiers measure points per week above the best free agent at each position, so the waiver wire sets the scale: Deshaun Watson gives you 14.8 a week at QB, while the best free-agent back, Tyler Allgeier, gives you only 7.2. That gap shapes the whole board. Six of the top eight players are running backs, and Josh Allen projects for 22.3 a week, more than anyone but Gibbs, yet that's only 7.5 above Watson, which puts him in Tier 4 next to Kyren Williams.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Ankit's Awesome Team) is alone at the top. His 25.0 a week is 17.8 above replacement, just under the Tier 1 line. We moved him up because the next-best player, Bijan Robinson, is 5.0 points a week behind him. Tier 3 is Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase. Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the board at 23.0 per game, 2.5 above ESPN, on a league-high 37% target share.

Week 4 cost the board a lot of health, and those injuries are priced in even though the box scores aren't. Chase (concussion), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Ladd McConkey and Justin Jefferson are questionable for Week 5. Rashee Rice is out for Week 6 after the Chiefs' bye. Saquon Barkley is out for Week 5 and questionable for Weeks 6 and 7. Each take cites its source.

Big moves

This is the first edition, so nothing moved yet. These are the calls we're most confident in:

  • Saquon Barkley, 15.2 → 11.0 per game (Tier 6, sell). He had 34 carries and 3 catches through three weeks for 7.0 a game, before he strained his hamstring on his second carry of Week 4. FantasyCalc still values him at 4,765.
  • Isaiah Likely, 13.1 → 9.0 (Tier 7, sell). Jaxson Dart is out for the season. Likely scored 27.8 with Dart and 8.3 and 3.3 with Jameis Winston, so he's no better than T.J. Hockenson on waivers.
  • Big ESPN cuts: Carnell Tate 14.0 → 10.5, Tony Pollard 13.7 → 10.5 and Rhamondre Stevenson 12.2 → 8.5. All three are in bad offenses or committees, and their starts (8.4, 8.5 and a split with TreVeyon Henderson) back that up.
  • Raised above ESPN: Smith-Njigba 20.5 → 23.0, Dalton Kincaid 9.4 → 11.5 and Brock Bowers 15.2 → 16.5. Bowers had 13 targets and a 92% route rate in his debut.
  • Two projections we wrote ourselves. ESPN has Jonah Coleman and Jalen McMillan at zero all season. Both are on short-term IR: Coleman is eligible in Week 7 and McMillan has a 6–8 week timeline. We put them back in at 5.0 and 4.5 a game, which still leaves both in Tier 8. Isiah Pacheco stays at zero, since the only return estimate after his back surgery is a December guess.
  • Marcus Mariota has no value after Week 4. He re-injured his MCL, and Jayden Daniels is targeting Week 5. Daniels is a buy at FantasyCalc's 431.

Where we disagree with the market

Sells:

  • Kenneth Walker III (8,862). The market prices him like McCaffrey because of his 26.4-point start. We take him 0.9 under ESPN because Andy Reid says Emmett Johnson will get more snaps.
  • Brock Purdy (2,320). He's scoring 27.0 a game on a 9:1 TD:INT ratio that won't last. London Bridge rosters four starting QBs, so the surplus is trade bait.
  • A.J. Brown (2,840). The market prices a healthy WR1, but the ankle gives him roughly nine usable games.
  • Malik Nabers (2,984). He's at 7.2 a game with Winston throwing to him.
  • Omarion Hampton (3,016) and TreVeyon Henderson (1,799). Both are committee backs barely above replacement.
  • Colston Loveland (1,177). He's below the waiver wire while Caleb Williams' hamstring heals.

Buys:

  • Justin Jefferson (6,122). The market is discounting a mild ankle sprain.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,384). He's cheaper than Jeremiyah Love, D'Andre Swift and Barkley, but more valuable than all three while Jonathon Brooks is on IR.
  • Michael Wilson (2,069). His target share climbed to 34% in Week 3.
  • Josh Jacobs (1,291). The market is pricing in suspension risk, but he looks like an RB2 in the playoff weeks.
  • Tucker Kraft (997). He's still running a starter's routes.
  • Ollie Gordon II (520). He's Miami's lead back now that De'Von Achane has torn his ACL.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season, kickers and D/ST included. The starting point is ESPN's weekly projections, which ESPN already scores with our league's settings. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. In a one-QB, 12-team league the waiver wire always has a startable QB, kicker and D/ST, so those spots rank lower than their raw points suggest. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (12 teams, 1 QB, PPR). Projections: ESPN weekly projections, Weeks 4–17, in our league's scoring (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-05.