UIUC Fantasy FootballEst. 2018 · 2026 season

Week 3 boardUpdated Sun, Oct 4 · Weeks 4–17

Week 3 Player Board: Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Only Tier 1, Saquon Barkley Lands in Tier 6

Gibbs projects 25.0 points a week, 17.8 above the best free-agent back, the only player in Tier 1. Barkley lands in Tier 6 after a 7-ppg start and a Week 4 hamstring. Kenneth Walker III, Brock Purdy and A.J. Brown are the biggest sells against the market. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 14.8 · RB 7.2 · WR 8.9 · TE 9.1 · K 8.4 · DEF 5.5

  1. 1DEFVikings D/STMIN · Marvins RoomHold7.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 1.4–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–24
    2. Week 5: expected 7.7, likely 1.2–13, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.4
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 1.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.3
    5. Week 8: expected 5.0, likely 0.8–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.4
    6. Week 9: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.7
    7. Week 10: expected 7.1, likely 1.1–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–19
    8. Week 11: expected 4.7, likely 0.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.5
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.7
    10. Week 13: expected 8.0, likely 1.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.2, likely 1.2–14, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.9
    12. Week 15: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.3
    13. Week 16: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.4
    14. Week 17: expected 8.6, likely 1.3–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.8
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    13.3 ppg through three weeks (5, 16, 19), the best of any rostered D/ST. Expect regression from a 19-point pace, but the unit has produced in all three games. Playoff slate (@NE, DET, WSH, @NYJ) is attractive outside Detroit. The one D/ST worth holding all season.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    6.5
    Above repl.
    +1.0
    Wks 14–17
    7.4
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  2. 2DEFSeahawks D/STSEA · Team Cash Money SquaHold6.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.9, likely 1.2–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.9
    2. Week 5: expected 4.3, likely 0.6–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.5
    3. Week 6: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.5
    4. Week 7: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.1
    5. Week 8: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.4
    6. Week 9: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.4
    7. Week 10: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 4.2, likely 0.6–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.2
    10. Week 13: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.6, likely 1.3–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–23
    12. Week 15: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.3
    13. Week 16: expected 5.6, likely 0.8–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15
    14. Week 17: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.2
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Defending champions with a good pass rush; 9.3 ppg so far, but they gave up 33 to Washington in Week 3. Playoff slate (NYG, @PHI, LAR, @CAR) opens with a great matchup.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.9
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    7.2
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  3. 3DEFSteelers D/STPIT · Los Angeles LesbiansHold6.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.2, likely 1.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.8
    2. Week 5: expected 7.1, likely 1.1–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–19
    3. Week 6: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.3
    4. Week 7: expected 6.0, likely 0.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–16
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 1.2–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.1
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.6
    8. Week 11: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.2
    9. Week 12: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.1
    10. Week 13: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.6
    11. Week 14: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.1
    12. Week 15: expected 4.0, likely 0.6–6.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.7
    13. Week 16: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.7
    14. Week 17: expected 7.1, likely 1.1–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    10.3 ppg, led by a 19-point Week 1. The early schedule is good, but Weeks 14-17 (@JAX, BAL, CAR, @TEN) average 5.7 projected. Stream them now, swap them out for December.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.9
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    5.7
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  4. 4DEFRams D/STLAR · Kirkland SignatureHold6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.5
    2. Week 5: expected 4.1, likely 0.6–7, 10th–90th percentile 0–11
    3. Week 6: expected 7.1, likely 1.1–12, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.8
    4. Week 7: expected 6.5, likely 1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.3
    5. Week 8: expected 7.5, likely 1.1–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.9
    6. Week 9: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.6
    7. Week 10: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.5
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.1
    10. Week 13: expected 5.0, likely 0.8–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.4
    11. Week 14: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.1
    12. Week 15: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.6
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.5
    14. Week 17: expected 7.9, likely 1.2–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–21
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    5.7 ppg in a volatile start (1, 11, 5). Weeks 14-17 (@SF, DAL, @SEA, @TB) is a gauntlet of good offenses. Replacement-level with a decent pass rush.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    +0.1
    Wks 14–17
    5.7
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  5. 5DEFRavens D/STBAL · Horus St. BrownHold5.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.5
    2. Week 5: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.1
    3. Week 6: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.2
    4. Week 7: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.2
    5. Week 8: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.7
    6. Week 9: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.5
    7. Week 10: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.8
    8. Week 11: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14
    9. Week 12: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.5
    12. Week 15: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.4
    13. Week 16: expected 8.2, likely 1.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.8
    14. Week 17: expected 5.0, likely 0.7–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Only 4.7 ppg so far, but the playoff schedule (TB, @PIT, CLE, @CIN) projects best among these units at 6.7 per game. A December hold more than an October start.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.4
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    6.7
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  6. 6DEFTexans D/STHOU · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold5.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 4.7, likely 0.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.5
    2. Week 5: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.8
    3. Week 6: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    4. Week 7: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.5
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.8
    7. Week 10: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.5
    8. Week 11: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.6
    9. Week 12: expected 3.7, likely 0.6–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.8
    10. Week 13: expected 6.0, likely 0.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.1
    11. Week 14: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.2
    12. Week 15: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.3
    14. Week 17: expected 5.9, likely 0.9–10, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Drafted as a top D/ST, but has scored 4.3 ppg (-4, 7, 10) as an 0-3 team. The pass rush is real; the offense putting the defense on the field is the problem. Playoff slate (@WSH, JAX, @PHI, @GB) is not friendly.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.4
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    5.4
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  7. 7DEFBroncos D/STDEN · I have a dreamHold5.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.4
    2. Week 5: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.2
    3. Week 6: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    4. Week 7: expected 5.7, likely 0.9–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.2
    5. Week 8: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.2
    6. Week 9: expected 5.6, likely 0.8–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 6.4, likely 1–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–17
    9. Week 12: expected 6.4, likely 1–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–17
    10. Week 13: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.7
    11. Week 14: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.7
    12. Week 15: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6
    13. Week 16: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.6
    14. Week 17: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    6.7 ppg (2, 9, 9), steady if unspectacular. Playoff slate (@NYJ, @LV, BUF, @NE) gives them two soft offenses in Weeks 14-15.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.1
    Above repl.
    -0.4
    Wks 14–17
    5.8
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  8. 8DEFChiefs D/STKC · I have a dreamHold5.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.5, likely 1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.3
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.5
    4. Week 7: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.9
    5. Week 8: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.2
    6. Week 9: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6
    7. Week 10: expected 3.9, likely 0.6–6.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.4
    8. Week 11: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.1
    9. Week 12: expected 3.4, likely 0.5–5.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.1
    10. Week 13: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.6
    11. Week 14: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.6
    12. Week 15: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6
    13. Week 16: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.8
    14. Week 17: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    7.3 ppg led by a 14-point Week 1. The bye is Week 5; the playoff run (@CIN, NE, SF, @LAC) is mixed. Matchup play.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.9
    Above repl.
    -0.6
    Wks 14–17
    5.5
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  9. 9DEFPatriots D/STNE · London BridgeSell5.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 2.8, likely 0.4–4.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.5
    2. Week 5: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.9
    3. Week 6: expected 6.5, likely 1–11, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.2
    4. Week 7: expected 4.3, likely 0.6–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.4
    5. Week 8: expected 6.9, likely 1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.4
    6. Week 9: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.7
    7. Week 10: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.9
    10. Week 13: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.5
    11. Week 14: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.4
    12. Week 15: expected 3.4, likely 0.5–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.9
    13. Week 16: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.2
    14. Week 17: expected 5.7, likely 0.9–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    9.0 ppg is inflated by a 20-point Week 2; a zero followed in Week 3 as Jacksonville scored 35 in a blowout. Weeks 14-17 (MIN, @KC, @NYJ, DEN) average 5.4 projected. Sell the early number.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.9
    Above repl.
    -0.6
    Wks 14–17
    5.4
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  10. 10DEFBears D/STCHI · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold5.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–18
    2. Week 5: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    3. Week 6: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.5
    4. Week 7: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.2
    5. Week 8: expected 4.4, likely 0.7–7.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.8
    6. Week 9: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.2
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.1
    9. Week 12: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.6
    10. Week 13: expected 4.3, likely 0.6–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.4
    11. Week 14: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.1
    12. Week 15: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.9, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.6
    14. Week 17: expected 3.5, likely 0.5–6, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    7.7 ppg, capped by 13 against Philadelphia in a 27-7 Week 3 win. Playoff slate (@MIA, @BUF, GB, DET) is the toughest of any D/ST here. Ride the early matchups, then drop.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.7
    Above repl.
    -0.8
    Wks 14–17
    5.0
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  11. 11DEFCommanders D/STWSH · London BridgeHold5.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 5.9, likely 0.9–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.7
    2. Week 5: expected 7.0, likely 1.1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.7
    3. Week 6: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.7
    6. Week 9: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.1
    7. Week 10: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.1
    8. Week 11: expected 4.5, likely 0.7–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.1
    9. Week 12: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.4
    10. Week 13: expected 5.6, likely 0.8–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.8
    11. Week 14: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.5
    12. Week 15: expected 3.7, likely 0.6–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.9
    13. Week 16: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.2
    14. Week 17: expected 4.1, likely 0.6–6.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.8
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    3.3 ppg so far, and the offense was down to rookie Athan Kaliakmanis in Week 4 until Daniels returns. Playoff slate (HOU, ATL, @MIN, @JAX) is decent, but this is a streamer.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.7
    Above repl.
    -0.8
    Wks 14–17
    4.5
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  12. 12DEFBrowns D/STCLE · Ari's Astounding TeamSell5.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.2
    2. Week 5: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.6
    3. Week 6: expected 2.8, likely 0.4–4.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.4
    4. Week 7: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.3
    5. Week 8: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 0.7–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.6
    7. Week 10: expected 5.2, likely 0.8–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.7
    10. Week 13: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.3
    11. Week 14: expected 3.7, likely 0.6–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–10
    12. Week 15: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.4
    13. Week 16: expected 2.5, likely 0.4–4.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–6.6
    14. Week 17: expected 6.0, likely 0.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–16
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    2.7 ppg (-1, 5, 4) despite a defense with a strong reputation. Weeks 14-17 (ATL, @NYG, @BAL, IND) include a Week 16 trip to Baltimore that projects 2.7. Streamable only in specific matchups.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.6
    Above repl.
    -0.9
    Wks 14–17
    4.9
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  13. 13DEFBills D/STBUF · Free WinHold4.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.6
    2. Week 5: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.4
    3. Week 6: expected 5.0, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.2
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 3.0, likely 0.4–5, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.9
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 0.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.5
    7. Week 10: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.4
    8. Week 11: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.5
    9. Week 12: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.9
    10. Week 13: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.1
    11. Week 14: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.2
    12. Week 15: expected 3.9, likely 0.6–6.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.3
    13. Week 16: expected 4.5, likely 0.7–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.9
    14. Week 17: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.9
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    4.0 ppg (5, 2, 5) with no sack or turnover spikes yet. Week 15 vs Chicago is the one useful playoff matchup; @GB, @DEN, @MIA otherwise.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.5
    Above repl.
    -1.0
    Wks 14–17
    4.9
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  14. 14DEFEagles D/STPHI · Hanging with HernandezHold4.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.1
    2. Week 5: expected 3.9, likely 0.6–6.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.4
    3. Week 6: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.2
    4. Week 7: expected 3.5, likely 0.5–6, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.3
    5. Week 8: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.2
    6. Week 9: expected 7.4, likely 1.1–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 5.7, likely 0.9–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.1
    9. Week 12: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.6
    10. Week 13: expected 5.6, likely 0.8–9.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.9
    11. Week 14: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.6
    12. Week 15: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.4
    13. Week 16: expected 5.9, likely 0.9–10, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.7
    14. Week 17: expected 2.8, likely 0.4–4.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    2.7 ppg (5, 4, -1), and an offense that held the ball for about 23 minutes in Week 3 keeps them on the field. Playoff slate (IND, SEA, HOU, @SF) is unfriendly. Below waiver level for now.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    4.4
    Above repl.
    -1.1
    Wks 14–17
    4.9
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  15. 15DEFPackers D/STGB · Horus St. BrownSell4.2ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.3
    2. Week 5: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.9
    3. Week 6: expected 2.9, likely 0.4–4.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.7
    4. Week 7: expected 2.4, likely 0.4–4, 10th–90th percentile 0–6.3
    5. Week 8: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    6. Week 9: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.6
    7. Week 10: expected 4.5, likely 0.7–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 2.7, likely 0.4–4.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.1
    10. Week 13: expected 4.0, likely 0.6–6.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.6
    11. Week 14: expected 2.8, likely 0.4–4.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.3
    12. Week 15: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.2
    13. Week 16: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.4
    14. Week 17: expected 4.8, likely 0.7–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.8
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    1.7 ppg (4, 7, -6). Weeks 14-17 (BUF, MIA, @CHI, HOU) include two softer offenses, but ESPN projects only 4.4 ppg. Replaceable by any streamer.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.9
    Above repl.
    -1.6
    Wks 14–17
    4.4
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  16. 16DEFCardinals D/STARI · Abhinav's TeamSell3.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.5
    2. Week 5: expected 2.5, likely 0.4–4.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–6.7
    3. Week 6: expected 2.6, likely 0.4–4.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–7
    4. Week 7: expected 3.4, likely 0.5–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.9
    5. Week 8: expected 2.5, likely 0.4–4.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–6.6
    6. Week 9: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.8
    7. Week 10: expected 2.9, likely 0.4–4.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.6
    8. Week 11: expected 2.7, likely 0.4–4.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.2
    9. Week 12: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.7
    10. Week 13: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–10
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 4.4, likely 0.7–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.7
    13. Week 16: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.5
    14. Week 17: expected 5.0, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.2
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A 12-point Week 1 has been followed by 1 and -4, behind a defense that gave up 36 to San Francisco. The Week 14 bye removes them from the first playoff week. A drop.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.3
    Above repl.
    -2.2
    Wks 14–17
    3.3
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →

The analyst's notes

The first board of 2026 covers all 192 rostered players, with a projection for every week from 4 through 17 in our scoring. Tiers measure points per week above the best free agent at each position, so the waiver wire sets the scale: Deshaun Watson gives you 14.8 a week at QB, while the best free-agent back, Tyler Allgeier, gives you only 7.2. That gap shapes the whole board. Six of the top eight players are running backs, and Josh Allen projects for 22.3 a week, more than anyone but Gibbs, yet that's only 7.5 above Watson, which puts him in Tier 4 next to Kyren Williams.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Ankit's Awesome Team) is alone at the top. His 25.0 a week is 17.8 above replacement, just under the Tier 1 line. We moved him up because the next-best player, Bijan Robinson, is 5.0 points a week behind him. Tier 3 is Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase. Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the board at 23.0 per game, 2.5 above ESPN, on a league-high 37% target share.

Week 4 cost the board a lot of health, and those injuries are priced in even though the box scores aren't. Chase (concussion), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Ladd McConkey and Justin Jefferson are questionable for Week 5. Rashee Rice is out for Week 6 after the Chiefs' bye. Saquon Barkley is out for Week 5 and questionable for Weeks 6 and 7. Each take cites its source.

Big moves

This is the first edition, so nothing moved yet. These are the calls we're most confident in:

  • Saquon Barkley, 15.2 → 11.0 per game (Tier 6, sell). He had 34 carries and 3 catches through three weeks for 7.0 a game, before he strained his hamstring on his second carry of Week 4. FantasyCalc still values him at 4,765.
  • Isaiah Likely, 13.1 → 9.0 (Tier 7, sell). Jaxson Dart is out for the season. Likely scored 27.8 with Dart and 8.3 and 3.3 with Jameis Winston, so he's no better than T.J. Hockenson on waivers.
  • Big ESPN cuts: Carnell Tate 14.0 → 10.5, Tony Pollard 13.7 → 10.5 and Rhamondre Stevenson 12.2 → 8.5. All three are in bad offenses or committees, and their starts (8.4, 8.5 and a split with TreVeyon Henderson) back that up.
  • Raised above ESPN: Smith-Njigba 20.5 → 23.0, Dalton Kincaid 9.4 → 11.5 and Brock Bowers 15.2 → 16.5. Bowers had 13 targets and a 92% route rate in his debut.
  • Two projections we wrote ourselves. ESPN has Jonah Coleman and Jalen McMillan at zero all season. Both are on short-term IR: Coleman is eligible in Week 7 and McMillan has a 6–8 week timeline. We put them back in at 5.0 and 4.5 a game, which still leaves both in Tier 8. Isiah Pacheco stays at zero, since the only return estimate after his back surgery is a December guess.
  • Marcus Mariota has no value after Week 4. He re-injured his MCL, and Jayden Daniels is targeting Week 5. Daniels is a buy at FantasyCalc's 431.

Where we disagree with the market

Sells:

  • Kenneth Walker III (8,862). The market prices him like McCaffrey because of his 26.4-point start. We take him 0.9 under ESPN because Andy Reid says Emmett Johnson will get more snaps.
  • Brock Purdy (2,320). He's scoring 27.0 a game on a 9:1 TD:INT ratio that won't last. London Bridge rosters four starting QBs, so the surplus is trade bait.
  • A.J. Brown (2,840). The market prices a healthy WR1, but the ankle gives him roughly nine usable games.
  • Malik Nabers (2,984). He's at 7.2 a game with Winston throwing to him.
  • Omarion Hampton (3,016) and TreVeyon Henderson (1,799). Both are committee backs barely above replacement.
  • Colston Loveland (1,177). He's below the waiver wire while Caleb Williams' hamstring heals.

Buys:

  • Justin Jefferson (6,122). The market is discounting a mild ankle sprain.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,384). He's cheaper than Jeremiyah Love, D'Andre Swift and Barkley, but more valuable than all three while Jonathon Brooks is on IR.
  • Michael Wilson (2,069). His target share climbed to 34% in Week 3.
  • Josh Jacobs (1,291). The market is pricing in suspension risk, but he looks like an RB2 in the playoff weeks.
  • Tucker Kraft (997). He's still running a starter's routes.
  • Ollie Gordon II (520). He's Miami's lead back now that De'Von Achane has torn his ACL.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season, kickers and D/ST included. The starting point is ESPN's weekly projections, which ESPN already scores with our league's settings. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. In a one-QB, 12-team league the waiver wire always has a startable QB, kicker and D/ST, so those spots rank lower than their raw points suggest. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (12 teams, 1 QB, PPR). Projections: ESPN weekly projections, Weeks 4–17, in our league's scoring (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-05.