UIUC Fantasy FootballEst. 2018 · 2026 season

Week 3 boardUpdated Sun, Oct 4 · Weeks 4–17

Week 3 Player Board: Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Only Tier 1, Saquon Barkley Lands in Tier 6

Gibbs projects 25.0 points a week, 17.8 above the best free-agent back, the only player in Tier 1. Barkley lands in Tier 6 after a 7-ppg start and a Week 4 hamstring. Kenneth Walker III, Brock Purdy and A.J. Brown are the biggest sells against the market. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 14.8 · RB 7.2 · WR 8.9 · TE 9.1 · K 8.4 · DEF 5.5

  1. 1QBJosh AllenBUF · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold24.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 23.5, likely 19–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 15.2–30.8
    2. Week 5: expected 22.1, likely 17.9–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.3–29
    3. Week 6: expected 24.3, likely 19.6–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 15.7–31.8
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 24.5, likely 19.8–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 15.9–32.1
    6. Week 9: expected 21.2, likely 17.2–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 13.8–27.9
    7. Week 10: expected 23.7, likely 19.2–27, 10th–90th percentile 15.4–31.2
    8. Week 11: expected 27.0, likely 21.8–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 17.5–35.4
    9. Week 12: expected 23.8, likely 19.2–27, 10th–90th percentile 15.4–31.2
    10. Week 13: expected 22.7, likely 18.3–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–29.8
    11. Week 14: expected 25.3, likely 20.4–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 16.4–33.2
    12. Week 15: expected 25.4, likely 20.5–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 16.4–33.3
    13. Week 16: expected 22.1, likely 17.8–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.3–29
    14. Week 17: expected 26.0, likely 21–29.5, 10th–90th percentile 16.8–34.1
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The only QB on this board who clears replacement by a full tier: 31.3 ppg through three weeks, and even a 204-yard, three-turnover mess in Week 3 still produced 17.5 because he punched in two 1-yard rushing scores (cbssports.com). The goal-line rushing is the floor nobody else in this pool has, and DJ Moore's return (10 targets in Week 3) helps the passing side. Playoff slate (@GB, CHI, @DEN, @MIA) is middling, with Denver in Week 16 the one to fear. In a one-QB league his edge is about 7-8 points a week over the waiver wire, real but not RB1 money.

    Why not the projection (22.7) ESPN's 22.7 ignores the rushing-TD floor that has carried him to 31.3 ppg; 24 still bakes in regression from a 40-point week.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    22.3
    Above repl.
    +7.5
    Wks 14–17
    24.7
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  2. 2QBBrock PurdySF · London BridgeSell20.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    2. Week 5: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.5
    3. Week 6: expected 22.8, likely 17.4–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.8–31.7
    4. Week 7: expected 20.5, likely 15.6–24, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–28.5
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 21.8, likely 16.6–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 12.2–30.3
    7. Week 10: expected 22.1, likely 16.8–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–30.7
    8. Week 11: expected 18.9, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    9. Week 12: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    10. Week 13: expected 21.4, likely 16.3–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 12–29.8
    11. Week 14: expected 20.1, likely 15.2–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–27.9
    12. Week 15: expected 21.0, likely 16–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.8–29.2
    13. Week 16: expected 19.8, likely 13.1–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.7
    14. Week 17: expected 20.8, likely 15.8–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–29
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    27.0 ppg and a 9:1 TD:INT through three weeks, including 297 yards and four scores on only 27 attempts in Week 3 (cbssports.com). That efficiency is not sustainable on that volume, and an 80-yard hook-and-lateral is not a repeatable skill. The playoff schedule (LAR, @LAC, @KC, PHI) is tough. He is a solid QB1, but London Bridge holding four starting QBs means this is the one to cash in while the box scores still look like Allen's.

    Why not the projection (19.5) Above ESPN's 19.5 for a real hot start and a loaded supporting cast, but well below his 27.0 actual pace.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +4.3
    Wks 14–17
    20.4
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  3. 3QBLamar JacksonBAL · Ari's Astounding TeamHold21.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 22.1, likely 16.8–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–30.8
    2. Week 5: expected 10.3, likely 0–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.5 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 20.5, likely 15.6–24, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–28.5
    4. Week 7: expected 21.6, likely 16.5–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 12.1–30.1
    5. Week 8: expected 22.0, likely 16.7–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–30.5
    6. Week 9: expected 20.7, likely 15.7–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–28.7
    7. Week 10: expected 21.8, likely 16.5–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 12.2–30.2
    8. Week 11: expected 21.3, likely 16.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–29.6
    9. Week 12: expected 19.7, likely 13–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.4
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 20.7, likely 15.8–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–28.8
    12. Week 15: expected 19.6, likely 13–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.4
    13. Week 16: expected 21.2, likely 16.1–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–29.5
    14. Week 17: expected 20.9, likely 15.9–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–29.1
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Ankle injury on a sack at the end of the first half against Tennessee in Week 4; he sat the second half with a 24-7 lead, left in a boot, and Ian Rapoport calls him day-to-day, with Baltimore optimistic for Week 5 at Atlanta but likely limiting his practice (nbcsports.com). Week 5 is marked questionable; the bigger risk is a gimpy ankle quietly capping the rushing that makes him a top-five QB. At 20.1 ppg through three weeks he has been fine, not elite, and the playoff run (TB, @PIT, CLE, @CIN) has two divisional road games.

    Why not the projection (20.1) Week 5 questionable for the ankle; ppg nudged above ESPN's 20.1 because his rushing ceiling is higher than his slow start shows.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    18.7
    Above repl.
    +3.9
    Wks 14–17
    20.6
    Games
    12.5
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  4. 4QBPatrick MahomesKC · London BridgeHold19.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 20.5, likely 15.6–24, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–28.5
    4. Week 7: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    5. Week 8: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.5
    6. Week 9: expected 20.1, likely 15.3–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–27.9
    7. Week 10: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    8. Week 11: expected 22.1, likely 16.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–30.7
    9. Week 12: expected 20.7, likely 15.7–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–28.8
    10. Week 13: expected 18.0, likely 11.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.7
    11. Week 14: expected 19.5, likely 12.9–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 7–32.2
    12. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 12.6–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.6
    13. Week 16: expected 19.6, likely 13–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.4
    14. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    22.2 ppg through three weeks after a down 2025,, with a 29-point Week 2 showing the ceiling is still there. The bye is Week 5, and the playoff run (@CIN, NE, SF, @LAC) is middling to tough. Name value makes him easy to sell, but he is not a big upgrade over the other QB1s here.

    Why not the projection (18.5) ESPN's 18.5 trails his 22.2 start; 19.5 splits the difference and still assumes some regression.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    18.1
    Above repl.
    +3.3
    Wks 14–17
    19.5
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  5. 5QBJoe BurrowCIN · I have a dreamHold19.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    2. Week 5: expected 20.4, likely 15.5–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–28.4
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.6
    5. Week 8: expected 19.8, likely 13.1–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.7
    6. Week 9: expected 18.7, likely 12.3–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.8
    7. Week 10: expected 17.8, likely 11.7–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.3
    8. Week 11: expected 19.8, likely 13.1–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.7
    9. Week 12: expected 20.3, likely 15.4–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–28.2
    10. Week 13: expected 18.0, likely 11.9–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.7
    11. Week 14: expected 18.2, likely 12–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.1
    12. Week 15: expected 18.8, likely 12.4–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31
    13. Week 16: expected 19.5, likely 12.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 7–32.1
    14. Week 17: expected 18.9, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    282 yards and three TDs at Pittsburgh in Week 3, spreading them to Chase, Higgins and Gesicki, though his fumble ended the final drive (fantasypros.com). Scoring has climbed each week (14.2, 16.2, 22.6) as the volume returns. The fantasy playoff slate (KC, @CAR, @IND, BAL) is one of the better QB runs on this board. A steady, unspectacular QB1 who could finish higher than his slow start suggests.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    17.6
    Above repl.
    +2.8
    Wks 14–17
    18.9
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  6. 6QBTyler ShoughNO · London BridgeHold19.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    2. Week 5: expected 16.9, likely 11.2–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.9
    3. Week 6: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    4. Week 7: expected 17.4, likely 11.5–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 19.1, likely 12.6–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.6
    7. Week 10: expected 20.0, likely 15.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–27.8
    8. Week 11: expected 18.8, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    9. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.5
    10. Week 13: expected 20.8, likely 15.8–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–28.9
    11. Week 14: expected 19.0, likely 12.6–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.4
    12. Week 15: expected 17.7, likely 11.7–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.2
    13. Week 16: expected 21.7, likely 16.5–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 12.1–30.1
    14. Week 17: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    23.1 ppg and three straight 22+ games, capped by four TDs (all to tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant) at Las Vegas in Week 3 (nbcsports.com). Volume is the engine: a bad Saints defense forces pass-heavy scripts. He has lost fumbles under pressure, but the playoff schedule (@CAR, @TB, ARI, @ATL) is the softest of any QB here. A legitimate low-end QB1, not a fluke.

    Why not the projection (18.3) Above ESPN's 18.3 because volume plus the softest playoff slate here support a QB1 floor; still well under his 23.1 pace.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    17.6
    Above repl.
    +2.8
    Wks 14–17
    19.2
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  7. 7QBDak PrescottDAL · London BridgeHold18.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.6, likely 11.6–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–29
    2. Week 5: expected 18.7, likely 12.3–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.8
    3. Week 6: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    4. Week 7: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.6
    5. Week 8: expected 21.2, likely 16.1–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–29.5
    6. Week 9: expected 19.6, likely 12.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.3
    7. Week 10: expected 18.7, likely 12.4–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.9
    8. Week 11: expected 19.8, likely 13.1–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.7
    9. Week 12: expected 18.7, likely 12.4–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.9
    10. Week 13: expected 16.5, likely 10.9–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27.1
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 17.1, likely 11.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.3
    13. Week 16: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.5
    14. Week 17: expected 20.0, likely 15.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–27.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    21.0 ppg so far, swinging from 14.4 to 29.8, which is normal for a high-volume passer. The real problem is the Week 14 bye, which takes him out of the first playoff week; @LAR, JAX, NYG after that is fine. On London Bridge he is one of four QBs, and the most movable after Purdy.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    17.4
    Above repl.
    +2.6
    Wks 14–17
    13.9
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  8. 8QBJalen HurtsPHI · Los Angeles LesbiansHold18.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    2. Week 5: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.5
    3. Week 6: expected 19.4, likely 12.8–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–32.1
    4. Week 7: expected 20.3, likely 15.4–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–28.1
    5. Week 8: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    6. Week 9: expected 19.6, likely 13–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.4
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 17.4, likely 11.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.7
    9. Week 12: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    10. Week 13: expected 20.0, likely 15.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–27.8
    11. Week 14: expected 20.0, likely 13.2–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–32.9
    12. Week 15: expected 16.5, likely 10.9–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27.2
    13. Week 16: expected 17.5, likely 11.5–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.9
    14. Week 17: expected 17.1, likely 11.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 3 was ugly: 153 passing yards, an INT, and a 27-7 loss at Chicago, with Hurts briefly evaluated for a concussion (nbcsports.com). The offense managed 248 yards on 47 plays; his rushing TDs keep the floor alive, but the passing side has scored 16.2 and 12.6 in the last two weeks. The playoff schedule (IND, SEA, HOU, @SF) is the worst in this QB group, a real knock for a back-end QB1.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    17.2
    Above repl.
    +2.4
    Wks 14–17
    17.8
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  9. 9QBJared GoffDET · Ari's Astounding TeamHold18.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.5
    2. Week 5: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    5. Week 8: expected 16.3, likely 10.8–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27
    6. Week 9: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    7. Week 10: expected 16.9, likely 11.2–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.9
    8. Week 11: expected 17.7, likely 11.7–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.2
    9. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.6
    10. Week 13: expected 17.4, likely 11.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.7
    11. Week 14: expected 18.7, likely 12.4–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.9
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 10.3–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.8
    13. Week 16: expected 18.8, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    14. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 11.8–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    21.9 ppg through three weeks in the league's most reliable dome offense, carried by a 29.8-point Week 2. ESPN's 17.4 is too low for a Lions offense this good; the realistic number is about 18. Weeks 14-17 (TEN, @MIN, NYG, @CHI) are favorable, and that matters more for Ari's Astounding Team, which also rosters Lamar and Kyler.

    Why not the projection (17.4) Above ESPN's 17.4 for Detroit's efficiency and a kind playoff slate.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.7
    Above repl.
    +1.9
    Wks 14–17
    17.7
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  10. 10QBTrevor LawrenceJAX · Abhinav's TeamHold18.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.6, likely 11.6–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–29.1
    2. Week 5: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    3. Week 6: expected 16.8, likely 11.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.7
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 19.5, likely 12.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 7–32.1
    6. Week 9: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.5
    7. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 12–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.9
    8. Week 11: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    9. Week 12: expected 18.9, likely 12.5–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    10. Week 13: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.6
    11. Week 14: expected 17.1, likely 11.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.2
    12. Week 15: expected 16.4, likely 10.8–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27
    13. Week 16: expected 18.9, likely 12.5–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    14. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seven TD passes to two INTs, but passing yardage has dropped in consecutive games, down to 182 in a 35-6 rout of New England (cbssports.com). The TD rate is carrying a 17.3 ppg start that included a 6.2-point dud in Week 2. Weeks 14-17 (PIT, @HOU, @DAL, WSH) open with two good defenses, so he is a streamable QB1-adjacent, not a weekly edge.

    Why not the projection (18.9) Shaded below ESPN's 18.9 because yardage is trending down and the TD rate is doing the lifting.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.7
    Above repl.
    +1.9
    Wks 14–17
    18.0
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  11. 11QBBryce YoungCAR · Hanging with HernandezHold17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 20.8, likely 14.6–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–30.9
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 16.5, likely 9.5–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–30
    4. Week 7: expected 17.5, likely 10.1–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–31.8
    5. Week 8: expected 18.6, likely 10.7–26, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.7
    6. Week 9: expected 16.5, likely 9.5–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–29.9
    7. Week 10: expected 18.4, likely 10.6–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.4
    8. Week 11: expected 17.9, likely 10.3–25, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–32.4
    9. Week 12: expected 16.6, likely 9.5–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–30.1
    10. Week 13: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–27
    11. Week 14: expected 19.3, likely 11.1–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–35
    12. Week 15: expected 18.3, likely 10.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.1
    13. Week 16: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–28.6
    14. Week 17: expected 15.9, likely 9.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–28.7
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    31.4 and 24.1 to open the year, then 13.6 against Cleveland in Week 3. Nothing in his track record supports a 23-point pace, so expect him to settle near 17. The playoff schedule (NO, CIN, @PIT, SEA) mixes two soft spots with two good defenses. At 23.1 ppg so far the market is right to stay skeptical.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.2
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    17.3
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  12. 12QBKyler MurrayMIN · Ari's Astounding TeamBuy17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 18.9, likely 12.5–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    2. Week 5: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 18.1, likely 11.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.8
    5. Week 8: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    6. Week 9: expected 18.2, likely 12–24, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–30
    7. Week 10: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    8. Week 11: expected 15.9, likely 10.5–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.2
    9. Week 12: expected 16.9, likely 11.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.8
    10. Week 13: expected 17.5, likely 11.6–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.9
    11. Week 14: expected 15.2, likely 10–20, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–25
    12. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 12.6–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.6
    13. Week 16: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    14. Week 17: expected 16.0, likely 10.6–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.5
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    His 3.3 ppg is misleading: a concussion on a late hit five plays into Week 1 knocked him out of that game and out of Week 2 (vikings.com). Healthy, he is Minnesota's starter in a good passing offense, and his legs add points most QBs in this range cannot. Playoff slate (@NE, DET, WSH, @NYJ) is friendly outside Detroit. Cheap QB2 insurance with low-end QB1 upside.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.2
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    17.2
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  13. 13QBMatthew StaffordLAR · Los Angeles LesbiansHold17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.3, likely 10.8–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–26.9
    2. Week 5: expected 18.6, likely 12.3–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.8
    3. Week 6: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    4. Week 7: expected 17.0, likely 11.2–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–28.1
    5. Week 8: expected 17.8, likely 11.8–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.4
    6. Week 9: expected 18.1, likely 11.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.8
    7. Week 10: expected 18.6, likely 12.2–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 18.6, likely 12.3–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.7
    10. Week 13: expected 16.7, likely 11–22, 10th–90th percentile 6–27.6
    11. Week 14: expected 16.2, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.7
    12. Week 15: expected 18.7, likely 12.4–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.9
    13. Week 16: expected 14.8, likely 9.8–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–24.4
    14. Week 17: expected 16.2, likely 10.7–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.7
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    17.3 ppg in a pass-first offense, though the range is wide (4.1 in Week 1, 27.0 in Week 2). Zero rushing means his floor depends on TDs. The playoff run is rough (@SF, DAL, @SEA, @TB) with two division road trips, so he is a matchup QB2 in December.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.2
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    16.5
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  14. 14QBJayden DanielsWSH · Marvins RoomBuy19.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 10.6, likely 0–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.6 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 18.6, likely 10.7–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.8
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 19.5, likely 11.2–27.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–35.4
    6. Week 9: expected 18.7, likely 10.8–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–34
    7. Week 10: expected 20.3, likely 14.2–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–30.2
    8. Week 11: expected 20.5, likely 14.3–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–30.5
    9. Week 12: expected 21.6, likely 15.1–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.1
    10. Week 13: expected 20.0, likely 11.5–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 4–36.2
    11. Week 14: expected 19.0, likely 10.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–34.4
    12. Week 15: expected 20.1, likely 14–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 9–29.8
    13. Week 16: expected 17.0, likely 9.8–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.8
    14. Week 17: expected 18.2, likely 10.5–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–33
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Out since dislocating his left elbow (the same one he dislocated last November) in Week 2. He practiced on a limited basis before Week 4, and Washington is targeting Week 5 against the Giants if he gets through a full week of practice (covers.com). Week 5 is marked questionable. Schefter reports the elbow could need offseason surgery, so re-injury risk is real, but at a 431 market value you get a rushing QB with a 20-point ceiling and a decent playoff slate (HOU, ATL, @MIN, @JAX).

    Why not the projection (19.2) Week 5 questionable: the return hinges on a clean practice week.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.0
    Above repl.
    +1.2
    Wks 14–17
    18.6
    Games
    11.5
    Marvins Room →
  15. 15QBJordan LoveGB · Horus St. BrownHold16.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.1, likely 10–20, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–25
    2. Week 5: expected 17.1, likely 11.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.3
    3. Week 6: expected 18.1, likely 12–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.9
    4. Week 7: expected 18.2, likely 12–24, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30
    5. Week 8: expected 17.2, likely 11.3–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.3
    6. Week 9: expected 14.7, likely 9.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–24.3
    7. Week 10: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.9
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 14.2, likely 9.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.5
    10. Week 13: expected 16.8, likely 11.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.8
    11. Week 14: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.6
    12. Week 15: expected 18.8, likely 12.4–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31
    13. Week 16: expected 16.1, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.6
    14. Week 17: expected 15.5, likely 10.2–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Steady 13.8-19.5 range in a balanced Packers offense, which is exactly replacement-plus. The ceiling is capped by a run-first script. The playoff run is mixed: BUF, MIA, @CHI, HOU. Fine as a bye-week fill-in, not a starter you build around.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    15.3
    Above repl.
    +0.5
    Wks 14–17
    17.1
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  16. 16QBSam DarnoldSEA · Marvins RoomHold16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.6, likely 10.9–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 6–27.3
    2. Week 5: expected 15.8, likely 10.4–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.1
    3. Week 6: expected 14.2, likely 9.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.4
    4. Week 7: expected 15.6, likely 10.3–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.7
    5. Week 8: expected 16.7, likely 11–22, 10th–90th percentile 6–27.5
    6. Week 9: expected 18.1, likely 12–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.9
    7. Week 10: expected 15.9, likely 10.5–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 15.0, likely 9.9–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.7
    10. Week 13: expected 17.6, likely 11.6–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–29
    11. Week 14: expected 17.0, likely 11.2–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–28.1
    12. Week 15: expected 15.0, likely 9.9–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.8
    13. Week 16: expected 15.0, likely 9.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.8
    14. Week 17: expected 16.0, likely 10.6–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A glute injury knocked him out five plays into Week 1 and cost him Week 2; he returned in Week 3 (profootballrumors.com) and scored 27.7. Healthy, he is a mid-QB2 who can spike with the Seattle passing game. Weeks 14-17 (NYG, @PHI, LAR, @CAR) are mostly playable.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    14.9
    Above repl.
    +0.1
    Wks 14–17
    15.8
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  17. 17QBBo NixDEN · I have a dreamHold16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.9, likely 9.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.6
    2. Week 5: expected 16.0, likely 10.5–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.3
    3. Week 6: expected 14.2, likely 9.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.5
    4. Week 7: expected 17.6, likely 11.6–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.1
    5. Week 8: expected 15.5, likely 10.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.6
    6. Week 9: expected 16.1, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 16.8, likely 11.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.7
    9. Week 12: expected 14.3, likely 9.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.5
    10. Week 13: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.5
    11. Week 14: expected 15.5, likely 10.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.6
    12. Week 15: expected 15.9, likely 10.5–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.3
    13. Week 16: expected 17.7, likely 11.7–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.2
    14. Week 17: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–24
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    5.4 in Week 1, 24.1 in Week 3: Nix's rushing gives him spike weeks, but the passing efficiency is still middling. Denver's playoff schedule (@NYJ, @LV, BUF, @NE) is softer than most. He is a streamer exactly at replacement level.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    14.8
    Above repl.
    0.0
    Wks 14–17
    15.9
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  18. 18QBJacoby BrissettARI · Team Cash Money SquaHold15.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.8, likely 10.5–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.1
    2. Week 5: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    3. Week 6: expected 13.7, likely 7.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.4
    4. Week 7: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.9
    5. Week 8: expected 16.4, likely 10.9–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27.1
    6. Week 9: expected 13.0, likely 6.9–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–25.1
    7. Week 10: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–24
    8. Week 11: expected 14.2, likely 9.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.5
    9. Week 12: expected 17.4, likely 11.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.7
    10. Week 13: expected 15.4, likely 10.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–25.3
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 15.9, likely 10.5–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.2
    13. Week 16: expected 16.2, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.7
    14. Week 17: expected 16.3, likely 10.8–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–26.9
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Cardinals starter, cleared from a hip issue before Week 3 (nbcsports.com), then threw 52 times against San Francisco for 25.6. Arizona's bad defense guarantees volume, but NBC notes he could be a midseason trade candidate and Carson Beck is behind him, so the job is not secure. The Week 14 bye hurts.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    14.4
    Above repl.
    -0.4
    Wks 14–17
    12.1
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  19. 19QBCaleb WilliamsCHI · Free WinHold18.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 16.9, likely 9.7–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.7
    4. Week 7: expected 16.9, likely 9.7–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.6
    5. Week 8: expected 15.0, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 3–27.2
    6. Week 9: expected 17.2, likely 9.9–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–31.2
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 18.9, likely 10.9–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–34.2
    9. Week 12: expected 19.3, likely 11.1–27, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–34.9
    10. Week 13: expected 17.0, likely 9.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.9
    11. Week 14: expected 18.9, likely 10.8–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–34.2
    12. Week 15: expected 18.3, likely 10.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.2
    13. Week 16: expected 19.0, likely 10.9–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–34.5
    14. Week 17: expected 20.0, likely 14–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 9–29.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Grade 2 hamstring from a non-contact injury in Week 2, with a 3-4 week timeline; he did not practice before Week 4 (espn.com). NBC calls Week 5 at Green Bay murky but possible (nbcsports.com), so ESPN's Week 6 return at Atlanta is the right base case, with some upside to come back early. When healthy he posted 37.3 in Week 1, and ESPN projects him at 18.8 ppg for Weeks 14-17. Base tier is 7 because of the two missed weeks; moved up one for that playoff ceiling.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    14.1
    Above repl.
    -0.7
    Wks 14–17
    19.1
    Games
    11
    Free Win →
  20. 20QBC.J. StroudHOU · Free WinHold14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.2, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.7
    2. Week 5: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–24
    3. Week 6: expected 13.6, likely 7.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.3
    4. Week 7: expected 15.4, likely 10.2–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–25.4
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 14.4, likely 9.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.7
    7. Week 10: expected 13.8, likely 7.3–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.6
    8. Week 11: expected 15.7, likely 10.4–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–25.9
    9. Week 12: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–24
    10. Week 13: expected 12.9, likely 6.8–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–24.9
    11. Week 14: expected 15.3, likely 10.1–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–25.2
    12. Week 15: expected 14.0, likely 9.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 5–23.1
    13. Week 16: expected 13.5, likely 7.2–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 3–26
    14. Week 17: expected 15.1, likely 10–20, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Houston is 0-3, Stroud has been sacked 10 times, and without Nico Collins (hamstring) he managed 167 yards in Week 3 (cbssports.com). 15.1 ppg with a broken line and no WR1 is below the waiver wire. Collins' return is the only path to a bounce, and the playoff schedule (@WSH, JAX, @PHI, @GB) offers little help.

    Why not the projection (15.1) Below ESPN's 15.1: no Collins, 10 sacks in three games and an 0-3 team make the projection look generous.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    -1.3
    Wks 14–17
    14.5
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  21. 21QBDrake MayeNE · Kirkland SignatureSell14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.0, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 3–27.2
    2. Week 5: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–27
    3. Week 6: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.4
    4. Week 7: expected 14.3, likely 8.2–20, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–25.8
    5. Week 8: expected 15.5, likely 8.9–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–28.1
    6. Week 9: expected 15.7, likely 9–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–28.4
    7. Week 10: expected 16.2, likely 9.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–29.3
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.7
    10. Week 13: expected 15.7, likely 9–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–28.4
    11. Week 14: expected 12.8, likely 5.3–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–27.6
    12. Week 15: expected 13.1, likely 5.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–28.4
    13. Week 16: expected 13.8, likely 5.7–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–29.9
    14. Week 17: expected 13.4, likely 5.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–28.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    7.2 ppg and seven turnovers through three weeks, the most by a Patriot that early in 30 years, and New England pulled him for Tommy DeVito in the 35-6 loss to Jacksonville (fantasynerds.com). He is not running enough to save weeks like 2025. The playoff slate (MIN, @KC, @NYJ, DEN) is brutal. Below the waiver wire until he proves otherwise, and a hook for DeVito is now on the table.

    Why not the projection (16.9) ESPN's 16.9 assumes the 2025 version; three games of turnover-driven duds and a mid-game benching justify 14.5.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    -1.3
    Wks 14–17
    13.3
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  22. 22QBJustin HerbertLAC · Team Cash Money SquaHold14.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.3, likely 6.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–23.8
    2. Week 5: expected 13.6, likely 7.2–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.2
    3. Week 6: expected 13.4, likely 7.1–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–25.8
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 12.8, likely 6.8–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–24.8
    6. Week 9: expected 13.9, likely 7.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–26.8
    7. Week 10: expected 13.9, likely 7.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–26.9
    8. Week 11: expected 14.9, likely 9.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.6
    9. Week 12: expected 14.0, likely 9.3–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.2
    10. Week 13: expected 13.6, likely 7.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.3
    11. Week 14: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.9
    12. Week 15: expected 14.4, likely 9.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.7
    13. Week 16: expected 16.0, likely 10.5–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.4
    14. Week 17: expected 14.1, likely 9.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.3
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    11.3 ppg on an 0-3 team: 226 yards and a TD in Week 3 at Buffalo under constant pressure, and NBC now calls him firmly a QB2 as Mike McDaniel's new offense keeps stalling on penalties and drops (nbcsports.com). Talent says he should rebound, but nothing on film supports projecting more than ESPN's 14.2. Not startable over the waiver wire right now.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.0
    Above repl.
    -1.8
    Wks 14–17
    14.8
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  23. 23QBMarcus MariotaWSH · Los Angeles LesbiansSell16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.0, likely 10.6–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: bye or not projected
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: bye or not projected
    13. Week 16: bye or not projected
    14. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Only relevant while Daniels was out. Mariota re-injured the right MCL he hurt in preseason during Week 4 against the Colts, and rookie Athan Kaliakmanis finished the game (espn.com). Daniels is targeting Week 5, so ESPN rightly projects nothing after Week 4. A droppable roster spot for Los Angeles Lesbians.

    Why not the projection (18.5) ppg below ESPN's Week 4-only 18.5 because the knee injury makes even a spot start unlikely; no value beyond Week 4 either way.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    1.1
    Above repl.
    -13.7
    Wks 14–17
    0.0
    Games
    1
    Los Angeles Lesbians →

The analyst's notes

The first board of 2026 covers all 192 rostered players, with a projection for every week from 4 through 17 in our scoring. Tiers measure points per week above the best free agent at each position, so the waiver wire sets the scale: Deshaun Watson gives you 14.8 a week at QB, while the best free-agent back, Tyler Allgeier, gives you only 7.2. That gap shapes the whole board. Six of the top eight players are running backs, and Josh Allen projects for 22.3 a week, more than anyone but Gibbs, yet that's only 7.5 above Watson, which puts him in Tier 4 next to Kyren Williams.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Ankit's Awesome Team) is alone at the top. His 25.0 a week is 17.8 above replacement, just under the Tier 1 line. We moved him up because the next-best player, Bijan Robinson, is 5.0 points a week behind him. Tier 3 is Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase. Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the board at 23.0 per game, 2.5 above ESPN, on a league-high 37% target share.

Week 4 cost the board a lot of health, and those injuries are priced in even though the box scores aren't. Chase (concussion), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Ladd McConkey and Justin Jefferson are questionable for Week 5. Rashee Rice is out for Week 6 after the Chiefs' bye. Saquon Barkley is out for Week 5 and questionable for Weeks 6 and 7. Each take cites its source.

Big moves

This is the first edition, so nothing moved yet. These are the calls we're most confident in:

  • Saquon Barkley, 15.2 → 11.0 per game (Tier 6, sell). He had 34 carries and 3 catches through three weeks for 7.0 a game, before he strained his hamstring on his second carry of Week 4. FantasyCalc still values him at 4,765.
  • Isaiah Likely, 13.1 → 9.0 (Tier 7, sell). Jaxson Dart is out for the season. Likely scored 27.8 with Dart and 8.3 and 3.3 with Jameis Winston, so he's no better than T.J. Hockenson on waivers.
  • Big ESPN cuts: Carnell Tate 14.0 → 10.5, Tony Pollard 13.7 → 10.5 and Rhamondre Stevenson 12.2 → 8.5. All three are in bad offenses or committees, and their starts (8.4, 8.5 and a split with TreVeyon Henderson) back that up.
  • Raised above ESPN: Smith-Njigba 20.5 → 23.0, Dalton Kincaid 9.4 → 11.5 and Brock Bowers 15.2 → 16.5. Bowers had 13 targets and a 92% route rate in his debut.
  • Two projections we wrote ourselves. ESPN has Jonah Coleman and Jalen McMillan at zero all season. Both are on short-term IR: Coleman is eligible in Week 7 and McMillan has a 6–8 week timeline. We put them back in at 5.0 and 4.5 a game, which still leaves both in Tier 8. Isiah Pacheco stays at zero, since the only return estimate after his back surgery is a December guess.
  • Marcus Mariota has no value after Week 4. He re-injured his MCL, and Jayden Daniels is targeting Week 5. Daniels is a buy at FantasyCalc's 431.

Where we disagree with the market

Sells:

  • Kenneth Walker III (8,862). The market prices him like McCaffrey because of his 26.4-point start. We take him 0.9 under ESPN because Andy Reid says Emmett Johnson will get more snaps.
  • Brock Purdy (2,320). He's scoring 27.0 a game on a 9:1 TD:INT ratio that won't last. London Bridge rosters four starting QBs, so the surplus is trade bait.
  • A.J. Brown (2,840). The market prices a healthy WR1, but the ankle gives him roughly nine usable games.
  • Malik Nabers (2,984). He's at 7.2 a game with Winston throwing to him.
  • Omarion Hampton (3,016) and TreVeyon Henderson (1,799). Both are committee backs barely above replacement.
  • Colston Loveland (1,177). He's below the waiver wire while Caleb Williams' hamstring heals.

Buys:

  • Justin Jefferson (6,122). The market is discounting a mild ankle sprain.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,384). He's cheaper than Jeremiyah Love, D'Andre Swift and Barkley, but more valuable than all three while Jonathon Brooks is on IR.
  • Michael Wilson (2,069). His target share climbed to 34% in Week 3.
  • Josh Jacobs (1,291). The market is pricing in suspension risk, but he looks like an RB2 in the playoff weeks.
  • Tucker Kraft (997). He's still running a starter's routes.
  • Ollie Gordon II (520). He's Miami's lead back now that De'Von Achane has torn his ACL.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season, kickers and D/ST included. The starting point is ESPN's weekly projections, which ESPN already scores with our league's settings. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. In a one-QB, 12-team league the waiver wire always has a startable QB, kicker and D/ST, so those spots rank lower than their raw points suggest. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (12 teams, 1 QB, PPR). Projections: ESPN weekly projections, Weeks 4–17, in our league's scoring (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-05.