UIUC Fantasy FootballEst. 2018 · 2026 season

Week 3 boardUpdated Sun, Oct 4 · Weeks 4–17

Week 3 Player Board: Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Only Tier 1, Saquon Barkley Lands in Tier 6

Gibbs projects 25.0 points a week, 17.8 above the best free-agent back, the only player in Tier 1. Barkley lands in Tier 6 after a 7-ppg start and a Week 4 hamstring. Kenneth Walker III, Brock Purdy and A.J. Brown are the biggest sells against the market. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 14.8 · RB 7.2 · WR 8.9 · TE 9.1 · K 8.4 · DEF 5.5

  1. 1RB1Jahmyr GibbsDET · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold27.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 27.1, likely 18.4–34.6, 10th–90th percentile 15.4–39
    2. Week 5: expected 28.3, likely 19.3–36.3, 10th–90th percentile 16.1–40.8
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 28.5, likely 19.4–36.5, 10th–90th percentile 16.2–41
    5. Week 8: expected 24.8, likely 16.9–31.8, 10th–90th percentile 14.1–35.7
    6. Week 9: expected 28.1, likely 19.1–36, 10th–90th percentile 16–40.5
    7. Week 10: expected 26.2, likely 17.8–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 14.9–37.7
    8. Week 11: expected 26.6, likely 18.1–34, 10th–90th percentile 15.1–38.3
    9. Week 12: expected 27.9, likely 19–35.7, 10th–90th percentile 15.8–40.2
    10. Week 13: expected 25.8, likely 17.5–33, 10th–90th percentile 14.6–37.1
    11. Week 14: expected 27.8, likely 18.9–35.6, 10th–90th percentile 15.8–40.1
    12. Week 15: expected 23.9, likely 16.3–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 13.6–34.4
    13. Week 16: expected 28.5, likely 19.4–36.5, 10th–90th percentile 16.2–41
    14. Week 17: expected 27.0, likely 18.3–34.5, 10th–90th percentile 15.3–38.8
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Opened with 33.6, 23.3 and 41.4 (32.8 ppg), and nobody else in the Detroit backfield is taking a meaningful bite. ESPN's 26.1 already prices him as the RB1, so we only nudge up to 27. A Week 6 bye and 25.9 ESPN ppg for Weeks 14-17 make him the safest playoff anchor at the position. Hold, unless someone pays you like he's two players. Moved up one tier to T1: his 17.8 PAR sits at the cutoff, and nobody else gets his kind of uncontested workload.

    Why not the projection (26.1) Nudged above ESPN's 26.1 on a 32.8 ppg start with an uncontested workload.

    Tier
    1
    Per week
    25.0
    Above repl.
    +17.8
    Wks 14–17
    26.8
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  2. 2RB2Bijan RobinsonATL · Hanging with HernandezHold21.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 22.1, likely 13.2–29.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–34.2
    2. Week 5: expected 21.4, likely 12.8–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–33.1
    3. Week 6: expected 22.5, likely 13.5–30.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–34.9
    4. Week 7: expected 20.9, likely 12.6–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.5
    5. Week 8: expected 20.6, likely 12.3–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.9
    6. Week 9: expected 21.7, likely 13–29.3, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.7
    7. Week 10: expected 20.9, likely 12.5–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.3
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 19.0, likely 11.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–33.2
    10. Week 13: expected 23.5, likely 14.1–31.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–36.4
    11. Week 14: expected 21.2, likely 12.7–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.9
    12. Week 15: expected 21.9, likely 13.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–33.9
    13. Week 16: expected 21.3, likely 12.8–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–33.1
    14. Week 17: expected 22.9, likely 13.7–30.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–35.4
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Bijan scored 31.3 and 35.3 around a 11.1 dud in Week 2, when Atlanta was down to emergency QB play with Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) and Michael Penix Jr. (knee) both hurt and the game turned into a 34-3 blowout (espn.com). Elite three-down usage keeps his floor high whoever plays QB. Bye in Week 11, and ESPN has him at 21.2 for the playoff weeks. The QB mess is the only reason he isn't a tier higher.

    Why not the projection (20.9) Slightly above ESPN's 20.9 given a 25.9 ppg start that came despite the Falcons' QB injuries.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    20.0
    Above repl.
    +12.8
    Wks 14–17
    21.8
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  3. 3WR1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · Ari's Astounding TeamHold23.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 24.5, likely 16.3–30.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.8–39.2
    2. Week 5: expected 23.0, likely 15.3–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–36.9
    3. Week 6: expected 21.6, likely 14.4–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–34.6
    4. Week 7: expected 22.9, likely 15.2–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 11–36.6
    5. Week 8: expected 22.8, likely 15.2–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 11–36.5
    6. Week 9: expected 23.7, likely 15.7–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–37.9
    7. Week 10: expected 22.7, likely 15–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–36.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 22.8, likely 15.1–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–36.5
    10. Week 13: expected 24.2, likely 16–30, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–38.7
    11. Week 14: expected 23.0, likely 15.3–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–36.9
    12. Week 15: expected 22.5, likely 14.9–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–36
    13. Week 16: expected 22.2, likely 14.7–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.6–35.5
    14. Week 17: expected 22.5, likely 15–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–36
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Historic start: 405 yards and 6 TDs in three games on a league-high 37.2% target share, 35 targets vs 12 for the next Seahawk (espn.com). That pace (34.7 PPR per game) will not hold, since six TDs in three games is a fluke, but last year's 35.9% share says the volume is real, so we set him 2.5 above ESPN's 20.5. Week 11 bye; ESPN has 20.1 for Weeks 14-17. The best WR on this board.

    Why not the projection (20.5) ESPN's 20.5 ignores a 37% target share he has now held for over a season; we regress the TDs but not the volume.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    21.3
    Above repl.
    +12.4
    Wks 14–17
    22.6
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  4. 4RB3Christian McCaffreySF · Abhinav's TeamHold19.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.8, likely 12.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.6
    2. Week 5: expected 18.0, likely 11.1–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–31.4
    3. Week 6: expected 20.9, likely 12.5–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.4
    4. Week 7: expected 19.3, likely 11.9–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–33.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 20.6, likely 12.3–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.9
    7. Week 10: expected 20.6, likely 12.3–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.9
    8. Week 11: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–23, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–31.9
    9. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 11.5–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–32.4
    10. Week 13: expected 20.6, likely 12.3–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.9
    11. Week 14: expected 18.9, likely 11.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–33.1
    12. Week 15: expected 19.9, likely 12.3–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–34.9
    13. Week 16: expected 18.9, likely 11.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–33.1
    14. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 12.2–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Full practices, no injury tag going into Week 4, and at least 14 touches every game with three rushing TDs in two weeks (sports.yahoo.com). After a 13.8 opener he has 22.6 and 21.6. Bye Week 8, and he projects at 19.9 for Weeks 14-17. Age and injury history are the only reasons he isn't a buy.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    18.1
    Above repl.
    +10.9
    Wks 14–17
    19.3
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  5. 5RB4Jonathan TaylorIND · I have a dreamHold19.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 20.5, likely 12.3–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–31.7
    2. Week 5: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–31.9
    3. Week 6: expected 20.7, likely 12.4–28, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–32.1
    4. Week 7: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.6
    5. Week 8: expected 17.8, likely 11–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.1
    6. Week 9: expected 21.0, likely 12.6–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.6
    7. Week 10: expected 21.8, likely 13.1–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.7
    8. Week 11: expected 17.8, likely 11–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.1
    9. Week 12: expected 21.3, likely 12.8–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–33.1
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–31.8
    12. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 12.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.6
    13. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 12.1–27.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–31.3
    14. Week 17: expected 19.3, likely 12–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–33.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Taylor has at least 19 carries every game and four TDs in three weeks, and his only limited practice was a rest day (sports.yahoo.com). Week 3's 9.2 came without a TD, and that's his floor in this offense. Bye Week 13, 19.3 ESPN ppg for the playoffs. A steady RB1 at a fair price.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    18.1
    Above repl.
    +10.9
    Wks 14–17
    19.4
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  6. 6RB5Kenneth Walker IIIKC · Abhinav's TeamSell19.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.6, likely 12.1–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 8–34.3
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 20.6, likely 12.4–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.9
    4. Week 7: expected 17.4, likely 10.8–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–30.4
    5. Week 8: expected 18.7, likely 11.6–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–32.7
    6. Week 9: expected 20.3, likely 12.2–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–31.5
    7. Week 10: expected 19.1, likely 11.8–24, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–33.3
    8. Week 11: expected 22.0, likely 13.2–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–34.1
    9. Week 12: expected 19.8, likely 12.3–25, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.7
    10. Week 13: expected 17.9, likely 11.1–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.3
    11. Week 14: expected 19.7, likely 12.2–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.4
    12. Week 15: expected 19.9, likely 12.3–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–34.8
    13. Week 16: expected 19.2, likely 11.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–33.6
    14. Week 17: expected 19.8, likely 12.3–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Walker's 26.4 ppg start came on 56 touches in the first two weeks. Then Andy Reid said rookie Emmett Johnson 'will continue to get more snaps' to take load off him (sports.yahoo.com), and Week 3 came in at 21.3. We're a point below ESPN's 20.4 because the share is going to fall. Market price (8,862) is CMC money for a back whose coach just told you his volume is peaking. Sell.

    Why not the projection (20.4) Below ESPN's 20.4 because Andy Reid has publicly committed to more snaps for Emmett Johnson.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    18.1
    Above repl.
    +10.9
    Wks 14–17
    19.7
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  7. 7RB6Derrick HenryBAL · Kirkland SignatureHold19.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.6, likely 10.3–26, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–38
    2. Week 5: expected 18.3, likely 9.6–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35.5
    3. Week 6: expected 19.1, likely 10–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–37
    4. Week 7: expected 19.9, likely 10.4–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–38.5
    5. Week 8: expected 19.1, likely 10–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–37
    6. Week 9: expected 18.2, likely 9.5–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35.2
    7. Week 10: expected 20.0, likely 10–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.8
    8. Week 11: expected 19.7, likely 10.3–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–38.1
    9. Week 12: expected 17.4, likely 9.1–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.7
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 19.2, likely 10.1–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–37.3
    12. Week 15: expected 17.8, likely 9.4–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.6
    13. Week 16: expected 20.1, likely 10–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.9
    14. Week 17: expected 18.9, likely 9.9–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 5–36.6
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Henry is Baltimore's workhorse with a 25 ppg start (35.3, 17.7, 21.9), but in full PPR he catches almost nothing, so weeks without a TD land in the mid-teens. Lamar Jackson hurt his ankle in Week 4 and is called day-to-day (baltimoreravens.com). A Lamar absence would let defenses load the box on Henry. Bye Week 13, solid 19.7 playoff projection. Hold.

    Why not the projection (19.7) A touch under ESPN on thin receiving work in a PPR league plus Lamar Jackson's ankle.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    17.7
    Above repl.
    +10.5
    Wks 14–17
    19.0
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  8. 8WR2Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · Horus St. BrownHold20.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 20.4, likely 13.6–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.7
    2. Week 5: expected 21.4, likely 14.2–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–34.3
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 21.3, likely 14.2–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–34.1
    5. Week 8: expected 19.4, likely 12.9–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–31.1
    6. Week 9: expected 21.5, likely 14.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–34.3
    7. Week 10: expected 20.0, likely 13.3–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.1
    8. Week 11: expected 20.2, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.3
    9. Week 12: expected 20.8, likely 13.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.2
    10. Week 13: expected 20.4, likely 13.5–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.6
    11. Week 14: expected 20.7, likely 13.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.2
    12. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 12.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–30.8
    13. Week 16: expected 20.9, likely 13.9–26, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–33.5
    14. Week 17: expected 20.6, likely 13.7–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–33
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Five TDs and 35 targets through three games, though the Week 3 line (4-19-1) was all checkdowns and one fade (nbcsports.com). The volume floor is as safe as any receiver in the league with Gibbs as the only real target competitor. Week 6 bye, ESPN 20.1 for Weeks 14-17. Slightly above ESPN for the red-zone role.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +10.2
    Wks 14–17
    20.4
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  9. 9WR3Puka NacuaLAR · Free WinHold20.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.3, likely 10–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.3
    2. Week 5: expected 20.9, likely 12.1–27.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–36.6
    3. Week 6: expected 20.8, likely 12.1–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–36.4
    4. Week 7: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–34.6
    5. Week 8: expected 20.1, likely 11.6–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 7–35.1
    6. Week 9: expected 20.5, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36
    7. Week 10: expected 20.6, likely 12–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36.1
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 20.5, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36
    10. Week 13: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7–34.8
    11. Week 14: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 7–34.8
    12. Week 15: expected 21.1, likely 12.3–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–37
    13. Week 16: expected 19.0, likely 11–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.2
    14. Week 17: expected 19.2, likely 11.1–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–33.6
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Missed Weeks 2-3 with a hip/groin injury and came back for Week 4 with the Rams saying they would not limit his snaps (lastwordonsports.com). Last year's 129-1,715-10 All-Pro line is the ceiling, but Davante Adams proved he can carry this offense (195 yards in Week 2) and will keep a real share, so we shade him just under ESPN's 20.9. Week 11 bye, ESPN has him at 20.7 for Weeks 14-17. A soft-tissue hip that lingered for two weeks is the risk; hold at elite market price rather than paying it.

    Why not the projection (20.9) Shaded 0.9 below ESPN for a hip injury that just cost him two games and a healthy Davante Adams eating targets.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    18.5
    Above repl.
    +9.6
    Wks 14–17
    19.8
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  10. 10WR4CeeDee LambDAL · Kirkland SignatureHold19.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.2, likely 11.5–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.3–27.6
    2. Week 5: expected 19.5, likely 13–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–31.2
    3. Week 6: expected 20.5, likely 13.6–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.8
    4. Week 7: expected 19.8, likely 13.2–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.7
    5. Week 8: expected 20.8, likely 13.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.3
    6. Week 9: expected 20.5, likely 13.6–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.8
    7. Week 10: expected 20.2, likely 13.4–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.4
    8. Week 11: expected 20.1, likely 13.3–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.1
    9. Week 12: expected 20.0, likely 13.3–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32
    10. Week 13: expected 19.2, likely 12.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–30.7
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–30.9
    13. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.3
    14. Week 17: expected 20.3, likely 13.5–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Two 100-yard games in three: 20-309-3, including 7-112 on eight targets in Brazil while George Pickens drew the attention (fantasypros.com). Dallas has thrown a lot and Lamb is the most efficient piece of it. The catch: his bye is Week 14, the first playoff week, which costs a T3 grade on a per-week basis. Hold, but plan a Week 14 replacement.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    18.4
    Above repl.
    +9.5
    Wks 14–17
    15.0
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  11. 11WR5Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · London BridgeHold20.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 20.5, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–35.9
    2. Week 5: expected 10.7, likely 0–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–30.9 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 20.4, likely 11.8–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–35.6
    5. Week 8: expected 20.6, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36
    6. Week 9: expected 20.2, likely 11.7–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–35.3
    7. Week 10: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–34.7
    8. Week 11: expected 21.1, likely 12.2–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–36.9
    9. Week 12: expected 21.1, likely 12.3–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–37
    10. Week 13: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–34.5
    11. Week 14: expected 20.3, likely 11.8–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–35.6
    12. Week 15: expected 20.1, likely 11.7–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 7–35.2
    13. Week 16: expected 20.9, likely 12.1–27.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–36.6
    14. Week 17: expected 20.7, likely 12–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–36.1
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Left Week 4 in the second quarter with a concussion after a facemask takedown and did not return (nbcsports.com); Week 5 vs Miami depends on clearing protocol, so we list it as questionable. Before that he was rolling: 16-173-3 on 21 targets over Weeks 2-3 (nbcsports.com). Bengals bye is Week 6, so a short absence costs at most one start. Bumped up one tier from base T4 because the per-week number is dragged by one questionable week and the bye, not by any doubt about the role.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    18.3
    Above repl.
    +9.4
    Wks 14–17
    20.5
    Games
    12.5
    London Bridge →
  12. 12RB7James Cook IIIBUF · Team Cash Money SquaHold17.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.6
    2. Week 5: expected 15.4, likely 9.6–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–27
    3. Week 6: expected 17.2, likely 10.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 7–30.1
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.6
    6. Week 9: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.6
    7. Week 10: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.5
    8. Week 11: expected 18.9, likely 11.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–33
    9. Week 12: expected 16.5, likely 10.2–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–28.9
    10. Week 13: expected 16.5, likely 10.3–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29
    11. Week 14: expected 17.7, likely 11–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31
    12. Week 15: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–31.8
    13. Week 16: expected 16.2, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.4
    14. Week 17: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–31.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The Bills have made Cook the bell cow. Ray Davis played five offensive snaps in Week 3 and Ty Johnson is the only other back involved (rotowire.com). After a 9.9 opener he's put up 20.9 and 19.4. ESPN likes him most for the playoffs (18.1 ppg Weeks 14-17). Bye Week 7. Hold.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.8
    Above repl.
    +8.6
    Wks 14–17
    17.6
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  13. 13TE1Trey McBrideARI · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold18.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 18.1, likely 11.1–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.4
    2. Week 5: expected 20.0, likely 12.3–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–33.5
    3. Week 6: expected 17.7, likely 10.9–23, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.7
    4. Week 7: expected 17.7, likely 10.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.8
    5. Week 8: expected 19.4, likely 12–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.6
    6. Week 9: expected 17.6, likely 10.8–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.5
    7. Week 10: expected 17.9, likely 11–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30
    8. Week 11: expected 18.2, likely 11.2–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.6
    9. Week 12: expected 19.3, likely 11.9–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    10. Week 13: expected 18.5, likely 11.4–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 18.6, likely 11.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    13. Week 16: expected 18.9, likely 11.6–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.7
    14. Week 17: expected 18.6, likely 11.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The safest volume at the position: double-digit targets and at least eight catches in every game, with a 32.5% first-read target share from Jacoby Brissett, whose short-area habits funnel the ball to him (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Actual 19.7 PPG through three weeks backs a level above ESPN's 17.8. The one real knock is a Week 14 bye, which takes him out of a playoff week; ESPN still has him at 18 PPG for Weeks 14-17 otherwise. Top PAR at tight end on this board.

    Why not the projection (17.8) Raised to 18.5 from ESPN's 17.8 because his 10+ targets per game and 19.7 actual PPG show a floor ESPN is not pricing in.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    17.2
    Above repl.
    +8.1
    Wks 14–17
    14.0
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  14. 14RB8Ashton JeantyLV · Los Angeles LesbiansHold16.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.9, likely 11.1–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.3
    2. Week 5: expected 16.4, likely 10.2–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–28.7
    3. Week 6: expected 17.9, likely 11.1–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.3
    4. Week 7: expected 16.1, likely 10–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.2
    5. Week 8: expected 16.9, likely 10.4–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.5
    6. Week 9: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.3
    7. Week 10: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.1
    8. Week 11: expected 15.3, likely 9.5–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–26.8
    9. Week 12: expected 16.1, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.1
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 16.8, likely 10.4–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.3
    12. Week 15: expected 15.9, likely 9.8–20, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.8
    13. Week 16: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.6
    14. Week 17: expected 17.4, likely 10.8–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–30.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    20+ touches in all three games, but he's at 3.3 yards per carry and hasn't scored on the ground (cbssports.com). His 18.4 ppg leans on two Week 1 receiving TDs. Behind the Raiders line the volume is real and the efficiency isn't, so we come in under ESPN's 17.4. Bye Week 13. Hold. Don't buy the name.

    Why not the projection (17.4) Below ESPN's 17.4: the volume is bell-cow but 3.3 YPC and no rushing TDs cap the ceiling.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.3
    Above repl.
    +8.1
    Wks 14–17
    16.8
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  15. 15RB9Javonte WilliamsDAL · Ari's Astounding TeamHold16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.0, likely 8.7–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–24.5
    2. Week 5: expected 16.2, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.4
    3. Week 6: expected 16.8, likely 10.4–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.5
    4. Week 7: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.7
    5. Week 8: expected 18.1, likely 11.2–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–31.7
    6. Week 9: expected 16.7, likely 10.4–21, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29.2
    7. Week 10: expected 15.7, likely 9.7–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.5
    8. Week 11: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–29.9
    9. Week 12: expected 15.9, likely 9.9–20, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.8
    10. Week 13: expected 14.1, likely 8.7–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.6
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.4
    13. Week 16: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.3
    14. Week 17: expected 17.6, likely 10.9–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–30.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Dallas's lead back put up 24.2, 8 and 18.3. The Week 2 dud was 2.5 yards per carry with no score (espn.com). His weeks swing with whether he scores, but the touches are steady. Bye Week 14 lands in the playoffs, a real knock if you're a contender. Small trim from ESPN's 16.6.

    Why not the projection (16.6) Small trim from ESPN for TD dependence; Week 14 bye noted for playoff managers.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    14.8
    Above repl.
    +7.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.9
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  16. 16QB1Josh AllenBUF · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold24.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 23.5, likely 19–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 15.2–30.8
    2. Week 5: expected 22.1, likely 17.9–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.3–29
    3. Week 6: expected 24.3, likely 19.6–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 15.7–31.8
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 24.5, likely 19.8–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 15.9–32.1
    6. Week 9: expected 21.2, likely 17.2–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 13.8–27.9
    7. Week 10: expected 23.7, likely 19.2–27, 10th–90th percentile 15.4–31.2
    8. Week 11: expected 27.0, likely 21.8–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 17.5–35.4
    9. Week 12: expected 23.8, likely 19.2–27, 10th–90th percentile 15.4–31.2
    10. Week 13: expected 22.7, likely 18.3–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–29.8
    11. Week 14: expected 25.3, likely 20.4–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 16.4–33.2
    12. Week 15: expected 25.4, likely 20.5–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 16.4–33.3
    13. Week 16: expected 22.1, likely 17.8–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.3–29
    14. Week 17: expected 26.0, likely 21–29.5, 10th–90th percentile 16.8–34.1
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The only QB on this board who clears replacement by a full tier: 31.3 ppg through three weeks, and even a 204-yard, three-turnover mess in Week 3 still produced 17.5 because he punched in two 1-yard rushing scores (cbssports.com). The goal-line rushing is the floor nobody else in this pool has, and DJ Moore's return (10 targets in Week 3) helps the passing side. Playoff slate (@GB, CHI, @DEN, @MIA) is middling, with Denver in Week 16 the one to fear. In a one-QB league his edge is about 7-8 points a week over the waiver wire, real but not RB1 money.

    Why not the projection (22.7) ESPN's 22.7 ignores the rushing-TD floor that has carried him to 31.3 ppg; 24 still bakes in regression from a 40-point week.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    22.3
    Above repl.
    +7.5
    Wks 14–17
    24.7
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  17. 17WR6Chris OlaveNO · Kirkland SignatureHold17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–34.5
    2. Week 5: expected 18.4, likely 10.7–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.2
    3. Week 6: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7–34.8
    4. Week 7: expected 19.1, likely 11.1–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–33.4
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.7
    7. Week 10: expected 16.8, likely 9.7–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.4
    8. Week 11: expected 16.7, likely 9.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.2
    9. Week 12: expected 16.8, likely 9.7–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.4
    10. Week 13: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.4
    11. Week 14: expected 16.6, likely 9.6–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29
    12. Week 15: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.3
    13. Week 16: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–30.9
    14. Week 17: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.9
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    23.5 ppg on volume: 9-107 on 13 targets in Week 3 with three near-TDs, while Tyler Shough threw all four TDs to tight ends (nbcsports.com). Few receivers have a target share this safe, and the TDs should come. Early Week 8 bye; ESPN has him at 15.5 for Weeks 14-17, which looks low for a 13-target receiver.

    Why not the projection (16.2) ESPN's 16.2 doesn't credit the target volume; we split the difference toward his 23.5 actual.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    16.3
    Above repl.
    +7.4
    Wks 14–17
    16.7
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  18. 18RB10Kyren WilliamsLAR · Horus St. BrownHold15.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.8
    2. Week 5: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.3
    3. Week 6: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–30
    4. Week 7: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.2
    5. Week 8: expected 16.1, likely 10–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.1
    6. Week 9: expected 15.9, likely 9.8–20, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.8
    7. Week 10: expected 16.6, likely 10.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 16.7, likely 10.3–21, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29.1
    10. Week 13: expected 15.1, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.5
    11. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.7
    12. Week 15: expected 16.6, likely 10.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29
    13. Week 16: expected 13.8, likely 7.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–26
    14. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    McVay has meant it about splitting carries: through Week 2, Kyren had 23 carries to Blake Corum's 22 (sports.yahoo.com). Kyren is still at 17.7 ppg. A true 50/50 split caps the ceiling, which puts us a point under ESPN's 16.7. Bye Week 11.

    Why not the projection (16.7) A point below ESPN because Corum is getting close to half the carries.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    14.4
    Above repl.
    +7.2
    Wks 14–17
    15.0
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  19. 19WR7Drake LondonATL · I have a dreamHold17.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.3, likely 10.1–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.3
    2. Week 5: expected 17.2, likely 10–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.1
    3. Week 6: expected 17.0, likely 9.8–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.7
    4. Week 7: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
    5. Week 8: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.6
    6. Week 9: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 6–29.8
    7. Week 10: expected 16.9, likely 9.8–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 15.6, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.3
    10. Week 13: expected 18.3, likely 10.6–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32
    11. Week 14: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.6
    12. Week 15: expected 17.5, likely 10.1–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.6
    13. Week 16: expected 16.5, likely 9.5–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.8
    14. Week 17: expected 17.5, likely 10.1–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 3 was the reset: 9-194 on 10 targets in Michael Penix's return, after two weeks of backup QB play held him to 5.5 and 8.9 (nbcsports.com). With Penix healthy, his target share makes him a WR1, so we go a bit above ESPN's 16.4. Week 11 bye, 16.3 for Weeks 14-17. The risk is Penix's health, not London's.

    Why not the projection (16.4) ESPN's average still includes backup-QB weeks; with Penix back we lift him 0.6.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.8
    Above repl.
    +6.9
    Wks 14–17
    17.0
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  20. 20RB11Chase BrownCIN · Marvins RoomHold15.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.9
    2. Week 5: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.7
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.1
    5. Week 8: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.3
    6. Week 9: expected 14.6, likely 9–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.5
    7. Week 10: expected 14.8, likely 9.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–25.9
    8. Week 11: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.6
    9. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.7
    10. Week 13: expected 14.8, likely 9.2–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–25.9
    11. Week 14: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.3
    12. Week 15: expected 15.1, likely 9.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.4
    13. Week 16: expected 15.3, likely 9.5–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–26.8
    14. Week 17: expected 14.8, likely 9.2–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–25.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    13, 11.2 and 8.9 — trending the wrong way. Week 3 brought season lows in carries and targets (13 and 2) even though he played 71% of snaps, and Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) both got hurt (fantasypros.com). The role is fine. The offense around him is leaking. We're two points under ESPN's 17.1 until production catches up. Bye Week 6.

    Why not the projection (17.1) Two points below ESPN's 17.1 after a 13 ppg start with falling volume and Cincinnati's top two WRs hurt.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    13.9
    Above repl.
    +6.7
    Wks 14–17
    14.9
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  21. 21RB12Chuba HubbardCAR · I have a dreamBuy15.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.6, likely 10.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29.1
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.9
    4. Week 7: expected 15.1, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.5
    5. Week 8: expected 15.7, likely 9.7–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.4
    6. Week 9: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26
    7. Week 10: expected 15.5, likely 9.6–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.2
    8. Week 11: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.2
    9. Week 12: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.4
    10. Week 13: expected 13.3, likely 6.9–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–25
    11. Week 14: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.3
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.4
    13. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.1
    14. Week 17: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Hubbard is the workhorse: 84% of snaps and 82% of backfield opportunities in Week 3, with Jonathon Brooks on IR for 6-8 weeks with a core injury (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He's at 17.7 ppg, so 15 is conservative and assumes Brooks takes some work back around Weeks 9-11. A Week 5 bye means no conflict with the playoffs. At 3,384 he's cheaper than backs we rank below him.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    13.9
    Above repl.
    +6.7
    Wks 14–17
    15.0
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  22. 22WR8Garrett WilsonNYJ · Abhinav's TeamHold16.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–31.3
    2. Week 5: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28
    3. Week 6: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.6
    4. Week 7: expected 17.2, likely 10–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.1
    5. Week 8: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.8
    6. Week 9: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.4
    7. Week 10: expected 17.3, likely 10–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.2
    8. Week 11: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–28.7
    9. Week 12: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6–29.9
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.5
    12. Week 15: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 6–29.8
    13. Week 16: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–27.9
    14. Week 17: expected 15.3, likely 8.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–26.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Healthy after a seven-game 2025 and fifth in the NFL with 21 catches through three weeks, capped by 10-107-1 in Detroit (newyorkjets.com). Geno Smith is feeding him and nobody else on the Jets commands targets. We go 1.3 above ESPN's 15.2. Week 13 bye.

    Why not the projection (15.2) 21 catches in three games is WR1 volume; ESPN's 15.2 is still pricing in last year's injury-shortened season.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.3
    Above repl.
    +6.4
    Wks 14–17
    16.0
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  23. 23TE2Brock BowersLV · Free WinHold16.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.3, likely 9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–32
    2. Week 5: expected 16.6, likely 8.6–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–30.6
    3. Week 6: expected 18.1, likely 9.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–33.4
    4. Week 7: expected 16.7, likely 8.7–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–30.9
    5. Week 8: expected 17.1, likely 8.9–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–31.6
    6. Week 9: expected 17.2, likely 9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–31.9
    7. Week 10: expected 15.7, likely 8.1–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–29
    8. Week 11: expected 15.4, likely 8–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–28.4
    9. Week 12: expected 15.7, likely 8.2–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–29.1
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 16.4, likely 8.5–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.4
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 8.1–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–28.8
    13. Week 16: expected 16.4, likely 8.5–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.3
    14. Week 17: expected 16.9, likely 8.8–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–31.2
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Missed Weeks 1-2 after a September meniscus trim, then debuted in Week 3 with 10 catches for 116 yards and a score on a team-best 13 targets from Kirk Cousins, running a route on 92.1% of pass plays (fantasyfootballcalculator.com, fantasysixpack.net). That usage says ESPN's 15.2 is light; a late illness tag did not threaten Week 4 (sports.yahoo.com). The knee is the risk, and the Week 13 bye avoids the playoffs. Upside to be the TE1 overall, priced like it already.

    Why not the projection (15.2) Raised to 16.5 from ESPN's 15.2 on his Week 3 workload (13 targets, 92% route rate) with Cousins.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.4
    Above repl.
    +6.3
    Wks 14–17
    16.3
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  24. 24RB13Jeremiyah LoveARI · London BridgeHold14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.6, likely 10.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29
    2. Week 5: expected 16.0, likely 9.9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28
    3. Week 6: expected 13.0, likely 6.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.5
    4. Week 7: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.9
    5. Week 8: expected 14.9, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.2
    6. Week 9: expected 12.6, likely 6.6–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.7
    7. Week 10: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.6
    8. Week 11: expected 13.4, likely 7–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.3
    9. Week 12: expected 15.4, likely 9.6–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–27
    10. Week 13: expected 14.3, likely 8.8–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.9
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.1
    13. Week 16: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.2
    14. Week 17: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie took over in Week 3: 52 snaps to Tyler Allgeier's 30, 26 touches and 21.9 points (espn.com, si.com). In Weeks 1-2 he was at 43% of snaps, so the arrow points up and we go a point above ESPN's 13.6. The market (5,193) already prices that breakout and more. Bye Week 14 lands in the playoffs.

    Why not the projection (13.6) Above ESPN's 13.6 because his snap share jumped from 43% to over 60% in Week 3.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    +6.3
    Wks 14–17
    11.3
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  25. 25WR9Zay FlowersBAL · Los Angeles LesbiansHold16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.2, likely 7.2–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–29.4
    2. Week 5: expected 16.0, likely 7.6–22, 10th–90th percentile 3–31
    3. Week 6: expected 15.7, likely 7.5–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.5
    4. Week 7: expected 16.4, likely 7.8–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–31.8
    5. Week 8: expected 16.9, likely 8–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–32.7
    6. Week 9: expected 16.4, likely 7.8–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–31.7
    7. Week 10: expected 16.3, likely 7.7–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–31.6
    8. Week 11: expected 16.1, likely 7.6–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 3–31.2
    9. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 7.5–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–30.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 15.8, likely 7.5–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–30.5
    12. Week 15: expected 15.7, likely 7.5–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.5
    13. Week 16: expected 15.8, likely 7.5–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–30.7
    14. Week 17: expected 16.3, likely 7.7–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–31.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A hamstring cost him Week 2, he played 33% of snaps on a pitch count in Week 3, and he was questionable again for Week 4 before being cleared without a hard snap count (nbcsports.com). When healthy he is Lamar Jackson's top target (26.0 points in Week 1). A twice-tweaked hamstring is a real re-injury risk, and he sits at the T4/T5 line. Week 13 bye.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    14.9
    Above repl.
    +6.0
    Wks 14–17
    15.9
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  26. 26RB14D'Andre SwiftCHI · Horus St. BrownHold14.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.6
    2. Week 5: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25
    3. Week 6: expected 13.0, likely 6.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.5
    4. Week 7: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.6
    5. Week 8: expected 11.8, likely 6.1–16, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.1
    6. Week 9: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 14.6, likely 9.1–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.6
    9. Week 12: expected 14.4, likely 8.9–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.2
    10. Week 13: expected 13.1, likely 6.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.5
    11. Week 14: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.4
    12. Week 15: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.6
    13. Week 16: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.8
    14. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A Thursday knee scare turned into a full Friday practice and a clean Week 4 tag. He's had at least 19 opportunities in every game (nbcsports.com). His 18.7 ppg is inflated by a 32.4 opener, and Kyle Monangai is a capable backup. Still, the volume deserves a point over ESPN's 13.0. Bye Week 10.

    Why not the projection (13.0) A point above ESPN's 13.0 for at least 19 opportunities in every game.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.0
    Above repl.
    +5.8
    Wks 14–17
    14.5
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  27. 27WR10Justin JeffersonMIN · Horus St. BrownBuy17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 0–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.5 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 17.8, likely 10.3–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–31.1
    5. Week 8: expected 18.4, likely 10.7–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.2
    6. Week 9: expected 18.1, likely 10.5–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–31.6
    7. Week 10: expected 17.5, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–30.6
    8. Week 11: expected 17.2, likely 10–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.1
    9. Week 12: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6–29.8
    10. Week 13: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
    11. Week 14: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.8
    12. Week 15: expected 18.6, likely 10.8–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–32.5
    13. Week 16: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–31.3
    14. Week 17: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–29.7
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Missed Week 4 with a sprained left ankle that O'Connell called relatively mild and is not ruling out for Week 5 at New Orleans (espn.com). He has 13-179-2 in about two and a half games and has played only 18 snaps with new QB Kyler Murray, so the 15.0 ppg so far is noise. Week 5 is questionable, Week 6 is the bye. Bumped one tier above base T5 because the injury discount is temporary. FantasyCalc at 6,122 is the cheapest he will be all year.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    14.4
    Above repl.
    +5.5
    Wks 14–17
    17.5
    Games
    11.5
    Horus St. Brown →
  28. 28WR11Nico CollinsHOU · Hanging with HernandezHold15.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.2, likely 8.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.6
    2. Week 5: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.1
    3. Week 6: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.2
    4. Week 7: expected 15.8, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.1
    7. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.3
    8. Week 11: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.2
    9. Week 12: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.5
    10. Week 13: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.1
    11. Week 14: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.1
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.3
    13. Week 16: expected 15.3, likely 8.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–26.8
    14. Week 17: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–27.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Back from a two-week hamstring absence and fully cleared for Week 4 (nbcsports.com). He plays fewer snaps than most top WRs, which caps volume, but he is Houston's clear No. 1 and ESPN's 15.6 is fair. Week 8 bye, 15.8 for Weeks 14-17. PAR sits at the top of T5; the market at 5,454 prices him as a borderline WR1, a bit rich for a hamstring-prone receiver who doesn't play every snap.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    14.4
    Above repl.
    +5.5
    Wks 14–17
    15.7
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  29. 29RB15Bhayshul TutenJAX · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold13.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.9, likely 6.7–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.2
    2. Week 5: expected 12.9, likely 6.7–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.3
    3. Week 6: expected 12.7, likely 6.6–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.8
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.3
    6. Week 9: expected 12.7, likely 6.6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24
    7. Week 10: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.7
    8. Week 11: expected 14.1, likely 8.7–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.7
    9. Week 12: expected 14.3, likely 8.8–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–25
    10. Week 13: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.8
    11. Week 14: expected 13.4, likely 6.9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–25.1
    12. Week 15: expected 12.4, likely 6.4–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.3
    13. Week 16: expected 13.8, likely 7.2–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–25.9
    14. Week 17: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Tuten has won the Jacksonville job, out-touching Chris Rodriguez 13-6 in Week 2 (draftsharks.com). 9.8, 14.2 and 17 — trending up. In line with ESPN at 13.5. The Week 7 bye is early, and his playoff projection (13.2) is steady.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.5
    Above repl.
    +5.3
    Wks 14–17
    13.5
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  30. 30WR12Davante AdamsLAR · Ari's Astounding TeamHold15.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.5, likely 7.4–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.1
    2. Week 5: expected 15.5, likely 7.4–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.1
    3. Week 6: expected 15.4, likely 7.3–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.9
    4. Week 7: expected 14.7, likely 7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–28.5
    5. Week 8: expected 14.9, likely 7.1–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–28.9
    6. Week 9: expected 15.3, likely 7.3–21, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.6
    7. Week 10: expected 15.3, likely 7.3–21, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 15.2, likely 7.2–21, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.5
    10. Week 13: expected 14.8, likely 7–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–28.6
    11. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 7–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–28.6
    12. Week 15: expected 15.7, likely 7.4–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–30.4
    13. Week 16: expected 14.1, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–27.3
    14. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–27.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Carried the Rams with Nacua out: 8-195-2 in Week 2 and 20.7 in Week 3 (nbcsports.com). Nacua is back now, so his share falls, but in this offense he is still the red-zone and deep option. TD-heavy profile, so expect weeks of 6 and weeks of 30. Week 11 bye.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    14.0
    Above repl.
    +5.1
    Wks 14–17
    14.7
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  31. 31WR13Michael WilsonARI · Kirkland SignatureBuy15.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.5, likely 6.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26.2
    2. Week 5: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–28.9
    3. Week 6: expected 14.2, likely 8.3–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.9
    4. Week 7: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.1
    5. Week 8: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–27.8
    6. Week 9: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.8
    7. Week 10: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.4
    8. Week 11: expected 14.7, likely 8.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–25.8
    9. Week 12: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–27.8
    10. Week 13: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.3
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.5
    13. Week 16: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27
    14. Week 17: expected 15.2, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Led Arizona in targets with a share that rose from 18.9% in Week 1 to 26.9% and then 34.0% in Week 3 (draftsharks.com). He has passed Marvin Harrison Jr. as the No. 1 read, and as a starter with Jacoby Brissett he has scored at a WR2 level. Bye is Week 14, the first playoff week, which is the main knock. FantasyCalc at 2,069 is far too cheap for this role.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.9
    Above repl.
    +5.0
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  32. 32RB16Bucky IrvingTB · Free WinHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.8
    2. Week 5: expected 12.9, likely 6.7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.3
    3. Week 6: expected 12.3, likely 6.4–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23.1
    4. Week 7: expected 13.2, likely 6.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.7
    5. Week 8: expected 12.8, likely 6.7–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.1
    6. Week 9: expected 13.1, likely 6.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.6
    9. Week 12: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.8
    10. Week 13: expected 13.4, likely 7–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–25.2
    11. Week 14: expected 12.2, likely 6.3–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23
    12. Week 15: expected 13.8, likely 7.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–26
    13. Week 16: expected 12.2, likely 6.4–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23
    14. Week 17: expected 12.0, likely 6.3–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A glute issue limited him in practice, but he's off the report. The real problem is Baker Mayfield's dislocated throwing thumb, which leaves an 0-3 offense with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for about three weeks (cbssports.com, si.com). Bucky's carries have been 8, 17 and 15, and Kenneth Gainwell takes a share. We're two points under ESPN's 15.1 until Mayfield is back, which the team targets for Week 7 (October 25). Bye Week 10.

    Why not the projection (15.1) Two points under ESPN while Tampa plays an undrafted rookie QB and Gainwell splits work.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +4.9
    Wks 14–17
    12.6
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  33. 33RB17Breece HallNYJ · Los Angeles LesbiansHold14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 7.4, likely 0–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.1 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.7
    4. Week 7: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.6
    5. Week 8: expected 14.9, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.2
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.9
    7. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.2
    8. Week 11: expected 14.3, likely 8.8–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.9
    9. Week 12: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.6
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 14.0, likely 7.3–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–26.2
    12. Week 15: expected 15.4, likely 9.5–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–26.9
    13. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25
    14. Week 17: expected 13.1, likely 6.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A quad injury in Week 3 is called week-to-week after an MRI with 'good news', and the hope is he avoids IR (nbcsports.com). Before that he was at 3.2 yards per carry (51 for 163) and played only 57.5% of snaps (si.com). ESPN already zeroes Week 4. We add Week 5 as questionable and set him at 14.5, under ESPN's 16.3, because Braelon Allen keeps a share. Bye Week 13.

    Why not the projection (16.3) Under ESPN's 16.3 on a 14.2 ppg start and a 57.5% snap share; Week 5 questionable with the week-to-week quad.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    11.9
    Above repl.
    +4.7
    Wks 14–17
    14.2
    Games
    11.5
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  34. 34WR14Parker WashingtonJAX · Free WinHold14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.4
    2. Week 5: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–25
    3. Week 6: expected 14.0, likely 6.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–27.2
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.2
    6. Week 9: expected 14.4, likely 8.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.2
    7. Week 10: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.1
    8. Week 11: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.4
    9. Week 12: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.4
    10. Week 13: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.1
    11. Week 14: expected 14.1, likely 8.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.6
    12. Week 15: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27
    13. Week 16: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.5
    14. Week 17: expected 15.1, likely 8.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.4
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Trevor Lawrence's clear No. 1: 15-221-2 through three games, with Brian Thomas getting one target in Week 3 (nbcsports.com). After his 29-507-3 finish last year, the floor looks real. Week 7 bye, ESPN 14.2 for Weeks 14-17. A steady WR2 at a fair market price.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    +4.6
    Wks 14–17
    14.6
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  35. 35WR15Christian WatsonGB · Free WinSell14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.4, likely 7.3–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.8
    2. Week 5: expected 14.4, likely 6.9–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–28
    3. Week 6: expected 15.2, likely 7.2–21, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.5
    4. Week 7: expected 15.4, likely 7.3–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–29.8
    5. Week 8: expected 14.3, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–27.6
    6. Week 9: expected 13.7, likely 5–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–29.7
    7. Week 10: expected 13.3, likely 4.8–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–28.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 13.5, likely 4.9–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–29.4
    10. Week 13: expected 14.6, likely 6.9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–28.3
    11. Week 14: expected 15.0, likely 7.1–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–29.1
    12. Week 15: expected 15.2, likely 7.2–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–29.4
    13. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 6.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–27.5
    14. Week 17: expected 13.9, likely 5.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–30.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Four TDs in three games on 29 targets, 23.1 ppg (nbcsports.com). The usage is real, but a deep threat scoring a TD every seven targets will cool off, and Golden is the one getting more looks. We go a bit over ESPN's 13.6 for the role. At 3,822 the market is paying for the TDs, so sell.

    Why not the projection (13.6) Raised 0.9 over ESPN for a near co-lead target share, not the four-TD pace.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.4
    Above repl.
    +4.5
    Wks 14–17
    14.6
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  36. 36TE3George KittleSF · Ari's Astounding TeamHold14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.1, likely 7.3–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.1
    2. Week 5: expected 14.1, likely 7.3–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.1
    3. Week 6: expected 15.1, likely 7.8–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–27.9
    4. Week 7: expected 14.4, likely 7.5–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 14.7, likely 7.6–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–27.1
    7. Week 10: expected 15.3, likely 8–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–28.4
    8. Week 11: expected 13.8, likely 7.2–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–25.5
    9. Week 12: expected 14.2, likely 7.4–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.3
    10. Week 13: expected 14.7, likely 7.6–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–27.1
    11. Week 14: expected 14.3, likely 7.4–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.4
    12. Week 15: expected 14.6, likely 7.6–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–27
    13. Week 16: expected 14.6, likely 7.6–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–26.9
    14. Week 17: expected 14.6, likely 7.6–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–27
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Back from a January Achilles tear and off the pitch count: 45% of snaps in Week 1, then 4-80-1 in Week 2 and 6-82-2 on a team-high seven targets in Week 3 (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). The 49ers receiver room is beat up (Mike Evans rib strain, two WRs on IR), which props up his target share for now (nbcsports.com). Expect volume to dip a bit when Evans returns, but the efficiency and red-zone role travel. Week 8 bye; ESPN 14.1 PPG for Weeks 14-17.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    +4.4
    Wks 14–17
    14.5
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  37. 37RB18Jaylen WarrenPIT · Hanging with HernandezHold12.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.1, likely 8.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.7
    2. Week 5: expected 13.2, likely 6.9–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.8
    3. Week 6: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.4
    4. Week 7: expected 12.9, likely 6.7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.3
    5. Week 8: expected 12.8, likely 6.6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 12.3, likely 6.4–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23.1
    8. Week 11: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22
    9. Week 12: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.8
    10. Week 13: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.5
    11. Week 14: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.7
    12. Week 15: expected 12.3, likely 6.4–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23.1
    13. Week 16: expected 13.0, likely 6.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.5
    14. Week 17: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.5
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Warren's 20.6 in Week 3 came with Rico Dowdle (toe) out: 53 of 59 RB snaps. NFL Network says there's 'a pretty good chance' Dowdle is back in Week 5 (nbcsports.com). With Dowdle playing, Warren scored 10.3 and 9.7. ESPN's 15.0 treats Warren as the bell cow, and that likely ends in Week 5. Bye Week 9.

    Why not the projection (15.0) Below ESPN's 15.0 because Dowdle is expected back in Week 5 and Warren was at about 10 ppg when they split.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    11.6
    Above repl.
    +4.4
    Wks 14–17
    12.3
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  38. 38QB2Brock PurdySF · London BridgeSell20.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    2. Week 5: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.5
    3. Week 6: expected 22.8, likely 17.4–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.8–31.7
    4. Week 7: expected 20.5, likely 15.6–24, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–28.5
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 21.8, likely 16.6–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 12.2–30.3
    7. Week 10: expected 22.1, likely 16.8–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–30.7
    8. Week 11: expected 18.9, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    9. Week 12: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    10. Week 13: expected 21.4, likely 16.3–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 12–29.8
    11. Week 14: expected 20.1, likely 15.2–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–27.9
    12. Week 15: expected 21.0, likely 16–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.8–29.2
    13. Week 16: expected 19.8, likely 13.1–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.7
    14. Week 17: expected 20.8, likely 15.8–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–29
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    27.0 ppg and a 9:1 TD:INT through three weeks, including 297 yards and four scores on only 27 attempts in Week 3 (cbssports.com). That efficiency is not sustainable on that volume, and an 80-yard hook-and-lateral is not a repeatable skill. The playoff schedule (LAR, @LAC, @KC, PHI) is tough. He is a solid QB1, but London Bridge holding four starting QBs means this is the one to cash in while the box scores still look like Allen's.

    Why not the projection (19.5) Above ESPN's 19.5 for a real hot start and a loaded supporting cast, but well below his 27.0 actual pace.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +4.3
    Wks 14–17
    20.4
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  39. 39WR16Matthew GoldenGB · Ankit's Awesome TeamBuy14.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.4
    2. Week 5: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.7
    3. Week 6: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.2
    4. Week 7: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.5
    5. Week 8: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27.1
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    7. Week 10: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.1
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.5
    10. Week 13: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–25
    11. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 8.5–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–25.8
    12. Week 15: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.1
    13. Week 16: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.9
    14. Week 17: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Leads Green Bay with 30 targets, one more than Christian Watson (nbcsports.com), and went 5-100-1 on 12 targets in Week 3. The second-year receiver is getting volume, not just TD luck, which makes him the safer Packer. Week 11 bye. FantasyCalc at 1,934 is cheap for a team target leader.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.0
    Above repl.
    +4.1
    Wks 14–17
    14.3
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  40. 40RB19Cam SkatteboNYG · Hanging with HernandezHold12.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.1, likely 9.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.4
    2. Week 5: expected 12.4, likely 6.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.4
    3. Week 6: expected 13.2, likely 6.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.9
    4. Week 7: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.6
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.3
    7. Week 10: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.5
    8. Week 11: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.9
    9. Week 12: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.8
    10. Week 13: expected 11.3, likely 5.9–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.2
    11. Week 14: expected 9.9, likely 5.1–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.5
    12. Week 15: expected 12.2, likely 6.4–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23
    13. Week 16: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.5
    14. Week 17: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Tyrone Tracy Jr. (knee) went from no practice to full practice going into Week 4 (giants.com), so the Giants' two-back split is back. Skattebo's 12.2 ppg is steady, with short-yardage and goal-line work. A small trim from ESPN's 12.8. Bye Week 8.

    Why not the projection (12.8) A small trim from ESPN now that Tracy is healthy.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    11.2
    Above repl.
    +4.0
    Wks 14–17
    11.7
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  41. 41RB20Quinshon JudkinsCLE · London BridgeHold12.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.2
    2. Week 5: expected 11.8, likely 6.2–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.2
    3. Week 6: expected 12.0, likely 6.2–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.5
    4. Week 7: expected 12.2, likely 6.3–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.9
    5. Week 8: expected 11.3, likely 5.9–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.2
    6. Week 9: expected 12.4, likely 6.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.4
    7. Week 10: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.7
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 12.6, likely 6.6–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.7
    10. Week 13: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.5
    11. Week 14: expected 12.0, likely 6.2–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.5
    12. Week 15: expected 12.6, likely 6.6–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.7
    13. Week 16: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.5
    14. Week 17: expected 13.0, likely 6.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.4
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Dylan Sampson's knee injury put him on IR for at least four weeks (profootballrumors.com), so Judkins is the lead back. The volume hasn't turned into points yet: 7, 9.8 and 9.9 behind a weak Browns offense, with Raheim Sanders taking passing-down work. 12 is the middle ground between his 8.9 actual and ESPN's 13.9. Bye Week 11.

    Why not the projection (13.9) Below ESPN's 13.9 because he's scored under 10 every week despite lead-back volume.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    11.2
    Above repl.
    +4.0
    Wks 14–17
    12.3
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  42. 42QB3Lamar JacksonBAL · Ari's Astounding TeamHold21.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 22.1, likely 16.8–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–30.8
    2. Week 5: expected 10.3, likely 0–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.5 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 20.5, likely 15.6–24, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–28.5
    4. Week 7: expected 21.6, likely 16.5–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 12.1–30.1
    5. Week 8: expected 22.0, likely 16.7–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–30.5
    6. Week 9: expected 20.7, likely 15.7–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–28.7
    7. Week 10: expected 21.8, likely 16.5–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 12.2–30.2
    8. Week 11: expected 21.3, likely 16.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–29.6
    9. Week 12: expected 19.7, likely 13–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.4
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 20.7, likely 15.8–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–28.8
    12. Week 15: expected 19.6, likely 13–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.4
    13. Week 16: expected 21.2, likely 16.1–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–29.5
    14. Week 17: expected 20.9, likely 15.9–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–29.1
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Ankle injury on a sack at the end of the first half against Tennessee in Week 4; he sat the second half with a 24-7 lead, left in a boot, and Ian Rapoport calls him day-to-day, with Baltimore optimistic for Week 5 at Atlanta but likely limiting his practice (nbcsports.com). Week 5 is marked questionable; the bigger risk is a gimpy ankle quietly capping the rushing that makes him a top-five QB. At 20.1 ppg through three weeks he has been fine, not elite, and the playoff run (TB, @PIT, CLE, @CIN) has two divisional road games.

    Why not the projection (20.1) Week 5 questionable for the ankle; ppg nudged above ESPN's 20.1 because his rushing ceiling is higher than his slow start shows.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    18.7
    Above repl.
    +3.9
    Wks 14–17
    20.6
    Games
    12.5
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  43. 43RB21Aaron Jones Sr.MIN · Horus St. BrownSell11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.1, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.1
    2. Week 5: expected 15.5, likely 9.6–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.1
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.8
    5. Week 8: expected 11.0, likely 5.7–15, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.7
    6. Week 9: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.5
    7. Week 10: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.4
    8. Week 11: expected 10.1, likely 5.3–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–19
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.5
    10. Week 13: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.5
    11. Week 14: expected 10.1, likely 5.3–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–19
    12. Week 15: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.4
    13. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.6
    14. Week 17: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Jordan Mason's broken thumb (IR) makes Jones the bell cow until Week 7 (si.com). He's playing in a knee brace and Minnesota is managing his practices (espn.com). Even as the bell cow he's at 11.6 ppg (17 carries for 58 in Week 3, si.com). ESPN's 18-point projections for Weeks 4-5 are the peak, then Mason is back after the Week 6 bye. Sell before Mason returns.

    Why not the projection (12.9) Under ESPN's 12.9 (which ESPN props up with 18-point Weeks 4-5): he scored 11.6 ppg as the bell cow, and Mason returns Week 7.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    10.7
    Above repl.
    +3.5
    Wks 14–17
    10.7
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  44. 44QB4Patrick MahomesKC · London BridgeHold19.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 20.5, likely 15.6–24, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–28.5
    4. Week 7: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    5. Week 8: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.5
    6. Week 9: expected 20.1, likely 15.3–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–27.9
    7. Week 10: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    8. Week 11: expected 22.1, likely 16.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–30.7
    9. Week 12: expected 20.7, likely 15.7–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–28.8
    10. Week 13: expected 18.0, likely 11.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.7
    11. Week 14: expected 19.5, likely 12.9–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 7–32.2
    12. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 12.6–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.6
    13. Week 16: expected 19.6, likely 13–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.4
    14. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    22.2 ppg through three weeks after a down 2025,, with a 29-point Week 2 showing the ceiling is still there. The bye is Week 5, and the playoff run (@CIN, NE, SF, @LAC) is middling to tough. Name value makes him easy to sell, but he is not a big upgrade over the other QB1s here.

    Why not the projection (18.5) ESPN's 18.5 trails his 22.2 start; 19.5 splits the difference and still assumes some regression.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    18.1
    Above repl.
    +3.3
    Wks 14–17
    19.5
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  45. 45WR17George PickensDAL · I have a dreamHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    2. Week 5: expected 12.7, likely 6.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.6
    3. Week 6: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    4. Week 7: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.9
    5. Week 8: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    7. Week 10: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.5
    8. Week 11: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.4
    9. Week 12: expected 13.0, likely 6.4–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.2
    10. Week 13: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.1
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.2
    13. Week 16: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.5
    14. Week 17: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Slow start at 16-150-0, though he led Dallas with 11 targets in Week 3 and is drawing the coverage that frees Lamb (fantasypros.com). Volume is fine and the scoreless start won't last. His bye is Week 14, the first playoff week. At 3,875 the market already pays for the 2025 version, so hold rather than buy.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.2
    Wks 14–17
    9.7
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  46. 46WR18Luther Burden IIICHI · Marvins RoomBuy13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.0, likely 6.4–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.3
    2. Week 5: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    3. Week 6: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.3
    4. Week 7: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.1
    5. Week 8: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    6. Week 9: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.2
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    9. Week 12: expected 13.7, likely 6.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.7
    10. Week 13: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    11. Week 14: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    12. Week 15: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.8
    13. Week 16: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    14. Week 17: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Second-year breakout in progress: his target share rose from 19.2% to 23.3% to 32.4%, and he led Chicago with 11 targets (7-61-1) in Week 3 (draftsharks.com). He still played only 61% of snaps, so there is room to grow. Week 10 bye, 12.8 for Weeks 14-17. A cheap buy at 1,477.

    Why not the projection (12.4) Raised 0.6 over ESPN for a target share that has risen every week.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.2
    Wks 14–17
    13.5
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  47. 47WR19Mike EvansSF · Horus St. BrownHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.5, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    2. Week 5: expected 12.7, likely 6.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.6
    3. Week 6: expected 13.8, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.8
    4. Week 7: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.4
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    7. Week 10: expected 14.0, likely 6.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–27.1
    8. Week 11: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–24
    9. Week 12: expected 12.8, likely 6.3–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.9
    10. Week 13: expected 13.4, likely 6.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.9
    11. Week 14: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    12. Week 15: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    13. Week 16: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.5
    14. Week 17: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Playing through fractured ribs: active for Week 4 in protective padding (49erswebzone.com). He had 12-137-2 through three weeks before getting hurt (lastwordonsports.com). The 49ers' WR room is thin: Kirk, Robinson, Pearsall and Stribling are all on IR, with Kirk not expected back before Week 6 (rotowire.com), so the targets are there if the ribs hold up. Week 8 bye.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.2
    Wks 14–17
    13.2
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  48. 48WR20Tee HigginsCIN · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold13.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.5, likely 6.6–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26.1
    2. Week 5: expected 7.0, likely 0–13, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.4 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    5. Week 8: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.8
    7. Week 10: expected 13.1, likely 6.4–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.3
    8. Week 11: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27
    9. Week 12: expected 14.0, likely 6.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–27.1
    10. Week 13: expected 13.0, likely 6.4–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.2
    11. Week 14: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    12. Week 15: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    13. Week 16: expected 13.8, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.7
    14. Week 17: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Picked up an adductor injury on a fourth-quarter sideline catch in Week 4 and missed the final drive; severity unknown, Week 5 status unclear (nbcsports.com). Before that he was a 14.8 ppg No. 2, and he becomes a WR1 any week Chase sits. Week 5 is questionable, Week 6 is the bye.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.2
    Wks 14–17
    13.5
    Games
    12.5
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  49. 49TE4Tyler WarrenIND · Abhinav's TeamHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.0, likely 8.6–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.6
    2. Week 5: expected 12.8, likely 7.9–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–21.5
    3. Week 6: expected 13.1, likely 8.1–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–22.1
    4. Week 7: expected 12.2, likely 7.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–20.4
    5. Week 8: expected 13.0, likely 8–17, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–21.8
    6. Week 9: expected 13.7, likely 8.4–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 5–23
    7. Week 10: expected 13.5, likely 8.3–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–22.8
    8. Week 11: expected 12.6, likely 7.8–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–21.2
    9. Week 12: expected 13.1, likely 8.1–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–22
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 12.8, likely 7.9–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–21.6
    12. Week 15: expected 12.9, likely 7.9–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–21.7
    13. Week 16: expected 13.1, likely 8.1–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–22
    14. Week 17: expected 12.5, likely 7.7–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–21
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Steady volume: 10.3, 14.4 and 14.7 points, capped by a career-high nine catches on 10 targets in Week 3 (fantasypros.com). Short-area usage keeps the yardage modest (55 yards on those nine catches), so the ceiling needs touchdowns. Keenan Allen being out and Alec Pierce's heel injury push even more targets his way in the short term (nbcsports.com). Week 13 bye, nothing in the playoffs to worry about.

    Why not the projection (12.1) Raised to 13.0 from ESPN's 12.1 to match his 13.1 actual PPG on a stable short-target role.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.0
    Wks 14–17
    12.8
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  50. 50QB5Joe BurrowCIN · I have a dreamHold19.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    2. Week 5: expected 20.4, likely 15.5–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–28.4
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.6
    5. Week 8: expected 19.8, likely 13.1–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.7
    6. Week 9: expected 18.7, likely 12.3–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.8
    7. Week 10: expected 17.8, likely 11.7–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.3
    8. Week 11: expected 19.8, likely 13.1–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.7
    9. Week 12: expected 20.3, likely 15.4–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–28.2
    10. Week 13: expected 18.0, likely 11.9–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.7
    11. Week 14: expected 18.2, likely 12–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.1
    12. Week 15: expected 18.8, likely 12.4–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31
    13. Week 16: expected 19.5, likely 12.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 7–32.1
    14. Week 17: expected 18.9, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    282 yards and three TDs at Pittsburgh in Week 3, spreading them to Chase, Higgins and Gesicki, though his fumble ended the final drive (fantasypros.com). Scoring has climbed each week (14.2, 16.2, 22.6) as the volume returns. The fantasy playoff slate (KC, @CAR, @IND, BAL) is one of the better QB runs on this board. A steady, unspectacular QB1 who could finish higher than his slow start suggests.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    17.6
    Above repl.
    +2.8
    Wks 14–17
    18.9
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  51. 51QB6Tyler ShoughNO · London BridgeHold19.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    2. Week 5: expected 16.9, likely 11.2–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.9
    3. Week 6: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    4. Week 7: expected 17.4, likely 11.5–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 19.1, likely 12.6–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.6
    7. Week 10: expected 20.0, likely 15.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–27.8
    8. Week 11: expected 18.8, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    9. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.5
    10. Week 13: expected 20.8, likely 15.8–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–28.9
    11. Week 14: expected 19.0, likely 12.6–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.4
    12. Week 15: expected 17.7, likely 11.7–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.2
    13. Week 16: expected 21.7, likely 16.5–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 12.1–30.1
    14. Week 17: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    23.1 ppg and three straight 22+ games, capped by four TDs (all to tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant) at Las Vegas in Week 3 (nbcsports.com). Volume is the engine: a bad Saints defense forces pass-heavy scripts. He has lost fumbles under pressure, but the playoff schedule (@CAR, @TB, ARI, @ATL) is the softest of any QB here. A legitimate low-end QB1, not a fluke.

    Why not the projection (18.3) Above ESPN's 18.3 because volume plus the softest playoff slate here support a QB1 floor; still well under his 23.1 pace.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    17.6
    Above repl.
    +2.8
    Wks 14–17
    19.2
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  52. 52WR21Malik NabersNYG · Free WinSell12.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.6
    2. Week 5: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    3. Week 6: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    4. Week 7: expected 11.9, likely 5.8–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.2
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    7. Week 10: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25
    8. Week 11: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–24
    9. Week 12: expected 12.6, likely 6.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.5
    10. Week 13: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–24
    11. Week 14: expected 11.5, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    12. Week 15: expected 12.0, likely 5.9–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.2
    13. Week 16: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    14. Week 17: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Jaxson Dart is out for the regular season with MCL, PCL and meniscus damage, so it's Jameis Winston the rest of the way (giants.com). In Winston's first start the Giants ran 33 times to 22 passes, and Nabers turned a 27% target share into 5-26 (nbcsports.com). The talent and share are elite, but 7.2 ppg in three weeks and a run-first plan cap him. Week 8 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.6
    Above repl.
    +2.7
    Wks 14–17
    12.4
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  53. 53QB7Dak PrescottDAL · London BridgeHold18.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.6, likely 11.6–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–29
    2. Week 5: expected 18.7, likely 12.3–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.8
    3. Week 6: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    4. Week 7: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.6
    5. Week 8: expected 21.2, likely 16.1–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–29.5
    6. Week 9: expected 19.6, likely 12.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.3
    7. Week 10: expected 18.7, likely 12.4–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.9
    8. Week 11: expected 19.8, likely 13.1–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.7
    9. Week 12: expected 18.7, likely 12.4–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.9
    10. Week 13: expected 16.5, likely 10.9–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27.1
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 17.1, likely 11.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.3
    13. Week 16: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.5
    14. Week 17: expected 20.0, likely 15.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–27.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    21.0 ppg so far, swinging from 14.4 to 29.8, which is normal for a high-volume passer. The real problem is the Week 14 bye, which takes him out of the first playoff week; @LAR, JAX, NYG after that is fine. On London Bridge he is one of four QBs, and the most movable after Purdy.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    17.4
    Above repl.
    +2.6
    Wks 14–17
    13.9
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  54. 54WR22Rashee RiceKC · London Bridge · out Wk 6Hold14.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.7
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: out
    4. Week 7: expected 6.7, likely 0–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.4 (questionable)
    5. Week 8: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.8
    6. Week 9: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.6
    7. Week 10: expected 13.8, likely 6.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.8
    8. Week 11: expected 14.6, likely 8.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.6
    9. Week 12: expected 14.6, likely 8.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.6
    10. Week 13: expected 13.5, likely 6.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26.2
    11. Week 14: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.6
    12. Week 15: expected 13.6, likely 6.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.4
    13. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.8
    14. Week 17: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Left Week 4 in the first quarter with a hamstring injury. Reid called it a tweak, but Mike Silver reports he could miss several weeks, and the Chiefs are already looking at veteran receivers (nbcsports.com). Week 5 is a bye, so we mark Week 6 out and Week 7 questionable. When healthy he scored 12.7 a game. Selling now means selling at the bottom, so hold and stash.

    Why not the projection (14.8) Week 6 out and Week 7 questionable for a hamstring reported to cost several weeks; ppg trimmed to 14.0 toward his 12.7 actual.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.5
    Above repl.
    +2.6
    Wks 14–17
    14.0
    Games
    11.5
    London Bridge →
  55. 55RB22David MontgomeryHOU · Ari's Astounding TeamSell10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.5, likely 4.6–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–24.1
    2. Week 5: expected 10.6, likely 4.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–22.3
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.3
    4. Week 7: expected 11.5, likely 4.6–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–24.3
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 10.4, likely 4.2–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 1–21.9
    7. Week 10: expected 10.4, likely 4.1–15, 10th–90th percentile 1–21.8
    8. Week 11: expected 11.4, likely 4.6–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–23.9
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 4.1–15, 10th–90th percentile 1–21.8
    10. Week 13: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.3
    11. Week 14: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–22.5
    12. Week 15: expected 9.9, likely 4–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.9
    13. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.3
    14. Week 17: expected 10.9, likely 4.4–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–22.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    After a 28.9 opener he scored 4.4 and 6.8. In Week 2 he got a 33% rush share and a 3.6% target share, with Woody Marks splitting the red-zone carries (fantasypros.com). Houston is a committee and Montgomery isn't getting the targets. We're nearly two points under ESPN's 12.3, and every week depends on a TD. The Week 8 bye is fine.

    Why not the projection (12.3) Below ESPN's 12.3 because Woody Marks is taking a share of carries and red-zone work.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    9.8
    Above repl.
    +2.6
    Wks 14–17
    10.3
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  56. 56TE5Travis KelceKC · Horus St. BrownSell12.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.0, likely 5.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.9
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 12.6, likely 5–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.9
    4. Week 7: expected 12.0, likely 4.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–24.8
    5. Week 8: expected 11.9, likely 4.8–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.6
    6. Week 9: expected 12.5, likely 5–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.8
    7. Week 10: expected 12.3, likely 4.9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.4
    8. Week 11: expected 13.0, likely 5.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.7
    9. Week 12: expected 13.0, likely 5.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.8
    10. Week 13: expected 12.0, likely 4.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–24.8
    11. Week 14: expected 12.5, likely 5–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.8
    12. Week 15: expected 12.2, likely 4.9–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.1
    13. Week 16: expected 12.6, likely 5.1–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.1
    14. Week 17: expected 12.5, likely 5–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    16.4 PPG on 14 catches, 231 yards and 2 TDs, but the catch counts swing wildly (3, 9, 2) and the points rest on long plays and back-to-back scores (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). We land between his actual production and ESPN's 11.3 because the yards per catch and touchdown rate will come down. The market still pays for a TE1 name (1,699), so this is the time to cash him out. Week 5 bye.

    Why not the projection (11.3) Raised to 12.5 from ESPN's 11.3 because he is still Mahomes' top-two target, but well below his 16.4 actual because the touchdowns and big plays will not hold.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.6
    Above repl.
    +2.5
    Wks 14–17
    12.5
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  57. 57RB23Ollie Gordon IIMIA · Ankit's Awesome TeamBuy10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.1
    2. Week 5: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.2
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 10.1, likely 5.2–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–19
    5. Week 8: expected 10.3, likely 5.4–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.4
    6. Week 9: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–21.9
    7. Week 10: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.1
    8. Week 11: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.6
    9. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 5.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–20
    10. Week 13: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.7
    11. Week 14: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.8
    12. Week 15: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.4
    14. Week 17: expected 11.0, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.6
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    De'Von Achane's torn ACL ends his season (nbcsports.com), and Gordon is expected to lead Miami in touches from here. Analysts warn it won't look like Achane's role, with Jaylen Wright in the mix and Malik Willis running at QB (profootballnetwork.com). Lead-back touches plus a receiving role are worth about 10.5 in full PPR, near ESPN's 11. At 520 market value he costs almost nothing. Bye Week 6.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    9.7
    Above repl.
    +2.5
    Wks 14–17
    10.9
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  58. 58RB24Tony PollardTEN · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–17
    2. Week 5: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.8
    3. Week 6: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.4
    4. Week 7: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.6
    5. Week 8: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.6
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.8
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.3
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 5–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–17.9
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 5.8–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–21
    11. Week 14: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.9
    12. Week 15: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 5.5–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.8
    14. Week 17: expected 10.3, likely 5.4–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.4
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Pollard's ankle cleared before Week 4 and he leads the backfield, with Tyjae Spears getting three touches in Week 3. But the Titans offense is unproductive and makes him 'only a moderate FLEX' (nbcsports.com). He's at 8.5 ppg (4.4, 7.5, 13.6), and we take him three points under ESPN's 13.7 because the offense caps him. Bye Week 9.

    Why not the projection (13.7) Three points below ESPN on an 8.5 ppg start in a bad Titans offense.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    9.7
    Above repl.
    +2.5
    Wks 14–17
    10.8
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  59. 59QB8Jalen HurtsPHI · Los Angeles LesbiansHold18.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    2. Week 5: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.5
    3. Week 6: expected 19.4, likely 12.8–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–32.1
    4. Week 7: expected 20.3, likely 15.4–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–28.1
    5. Week 8: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    6. Week 9: expected 19.6, likely 13–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.4
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 17.4, likely 11.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.7
    9. Week 12: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    10. Week 13: expected 20.0, likely 15.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–27.8
    11. Week 14: expected 20.0, likely 13.2–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–32.9
    12. Week 15: expected 16.5, likely 10.9–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27.2
    13. Week 16: expected 17.5, likely 11.5–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.9
    14. Week 17: expected 17.1, likely 11.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 3 was ugly: 153 passing yards, an INT, and a 27-7 loss at Chicago, with Hurts briefly evaluated for a concussion (nbcsports.com). The offense managed 248 yards on 47 plays; his rushing TDs keep the floor alive, but the passing side has scored 16.2 and 12.6 in the last two weeks. The playoff schedule (IND, SEA, HOU, @SF) is the worst in this QB group, a real knock for a back-end QB1.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    17.2
    Above repl.
    +2.4
    Wks 14–17
    17.8
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  60. 60WR23DeVonta SmithPHI · Team Cash Money SquaHold15.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 7.3, likely 0–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.3 (questionable)
    4. Week 7: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.5
    5. Week 8: expected 15.2, likely 8.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.7
    6. Week 9: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.1
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 14.4, likely 8.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.2
    9. Week 12: expected 15.6, likely 9–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.2
    10. Week 13: expected 15.3, likely 8.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–26.8
    11. Week 14: expected 15.3, likely 8.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.7
    12. Week 15: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.9
    13. Week 16: expected 14.4, likely 8.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.3
    14. Week 17: expected 14.8, likely 8.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–25.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Out Week 4 with a hamstring injury that the Inquirer says could cost 2-3 games; if he misses all three, his target return is Week 7 vs Dallas (sports.yahoo.com). It's a recurring hamstring that also cost him training camp. ESPN already zeroes Weeks 4-5, so we add Week 6 as questionable. When healthy he is the Eagles' top option at 16.2 ppg, but expect a lower grade until he's back. Week 10 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.2
    Above repl.
    +2.3
    Wks 14–17
    14.7
    Games
    10.5
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  61. 61WR24Jalen CokerCAR · Abhinav's TeamHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 13.0, likely 6.4–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.2
    4. Week 7: expected 12.9, likely 6.3–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–25.1
    5. Week 8: expected 13.6, likely 6.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.3
    6. Week 9: expected 12.6, likely 6.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.5
    7. Week 10: expected 13.5, likely 6.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26.3
    8. Week 11: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    9. Week 12: expected 12.8, likely 6.2–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.7
    10. Week 13: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.5
    11. Week 14: expected 13.7, likely 6.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.6
    12. Week 15: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    13. Week 16: expected 12.7, likely 6.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.6
    14. Week 17: expected 12.7, likely 6.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Was Carolina's leading receiver (18-222-2) before a quad injury in Week 3; he was questionable and then out for Week 4 (espn.com). With the Week 5 bye, he has two weeks to heal, and ESPN already zeroes both. Expect him back in Week 6 as Bryce Young's most reliable read, but the ceiling is limited.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.2
    Above repl.
    +2.3
    Wks 14–17
    13.1
    Games
    12
    Abhinav's Team →
  62. 62WR25Tetairoa McMillanCAR · Abhinav's TeamSell12.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.0, likely 6.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–27.1
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 11.7, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.8
    4. Week 7: expected 11.7, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.8
    5. Week 8: expected 12.3, likely 6–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–23.9
    6. Week 9: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.1
    7. Week 10: expected 12.3, likely 6–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.8
    8. Week 11: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.6
    9. Week 12: expected 11.5, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    10. Week 13: expected 10.9, likely 5.3–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.1
    11. Week 14: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.2
    12. Week 15: expected 12.1, likely 6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.6
    13. Week 16: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    14. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Carolina's No. 1, but Bryce Young's offense held him to 2-17 on five targets in Week 3 once Coker left and defenses keyed on him (nbcsports.com). 9.8 ppg through three weeks and a Week 5 bye. More volume while Coker and Legette are out helps, but the QB play caps him. At 2,768 the market still pays for draft-day hype.

    Why not the projection (13.6) Cut 1.6 below ESPN for a 9.8 ppg start with a weak passing game.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.1
    Above repl.
    +2.2
    Wks 14–17
    11.9
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  63. 63QB9Jared GoffDET · Ari's Astounding TeamHold18.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.5
    2. Week 5: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 19.3, likely 12.8–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.9
    5. Week 8: expected 16.3, likely 10.8–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27
    6. Week 9: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    7. Week 10: expected 16.9, likely 11.2–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.9
    8. Week 11: expected 17.7, likely 11.7–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.2
    9. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.6
    10. Week 13: expected 17.4, likely 11.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.7
    11. Week 14: expected 18.7, likely 12.4–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.9
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 10.3–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.8
    13. Week 16: expected 18.8, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    14. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 11.8–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    21.9 ppg through three weeks in the league's most reliable dome offense, carried by a 29.8-point Week 2. ESPN's 17.4 is too low for a Lions offense this good; the realistic number is about 18. Weeks 14-17 (TEN, @MIN, NYG, @CHI) are favorable, and that matters more for Ari's Astounding Team, which also rosters Lamar and Kyler.

    Why not the projection (17.4) Above ESPN's 17.4 for Detroit's efficiency and a kind playoff slate.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.7
    Above repl.
    +1.9
    Wks 14–17
    17.7
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  64. 64QB10Trevor LawrenceJAX · Abhinav's TeamHold18.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.6, likely 11.6–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–29.1
    2. Week 5: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    3. Week 6: expected 16.8, likely 11.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.7
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 19.5, likely 12.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 7–32.1
    6. Week 9: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.5
    7. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 12–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.9
    8. Week 11: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    9. Week 12: expected 18.9, likely 12.5–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    10. Week 13: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.6
    11. Week 14: expected 17.1, likely 11.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.2
    12. Week 15: expected 16.4, likely 10.8–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27
    13. Week 16: expected 18.9, likely 12.5–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    14. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 13–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seven TD passes to two INTs, but passing yardage has dropped in consecutive games, down to 182 in a 35-6 rout of New England (cbssports.com). The TD rate is carrying a 17.3 ppg start that included a 6.2-point dud in Week 2. Weeks 14-17 (PIT, @HOU, @DAL, WSH) open with two good defenses, so he is a streamable QB1-adjacent, not a weekly edge.

    Why not the projection (18.9) Shaded below ESPN's 18.9 because yardage is trending down and the TD rate is doing the lifting.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.7
    Above repl.
    +1.9
    Wks 14–17
    18.0
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  65. 65WR26Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · Team Cash Money SquaHold11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.9, likely 3.9–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.6
    2. Week 5: expected 11.0, likely 4–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.9
    3. Week 6: expected 12.2, likely 4.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–26.6
    4. Week 7: expected 11.5, likely 4.2–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 11.8, likely 4.3–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.8
    7. Week 10: expected 12.2, likely 4.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–26.6
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 3.9–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.5
    9. Week 12: expected 11.2, likely 4.1–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.3
    10. Week 13: expected 11.8, likely 4.3–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.8
    11. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 4.1–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.6
    12. Week 15: expected 11.7, likely 4.2–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.4
    13. Week 16: expected 11.4, likely 4.1–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.9
    14. Week 17: expected 11.6, likely 4.2–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.3
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Mostly a schemed-touch player: 9-79-1 in Weeks 1-2, then an 80-yard hook-and-ladder score in Week 3 without a catch (cbssports.com). With four 49ers WRs on IR he is the de facto No. 2, but Christian Kirk could return around Week 6 (rotowire.com). Week 8 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.7
    Above repl.
    +1.8
    Wks 14–17
    11.5
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  66. 66RB25Omarion HamptonLAC · Team Cash Money SquaSell9.6ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.1
    2. Week 5: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.2
    3. Week 6: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.9
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 8.7, likely 4.5–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.3
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.8
    7. Week 10: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.3
    9. Week 12: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.7
    11. Week 14: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.7
    12. Week 15: expected 9.5, likely 5–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–17.9
    13. Week 16: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.1
    14. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–17.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The first-round pedigree is doing the heavy lifting: Hampton played under 45% of snaps in Week 3 as the Chargers got more comfortable using Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal in high-leverage spots (heavy.com), and he's at 10.5 PPG behind an 0-3 offense averaging under 4.0 yards a carry. He's still the early-down lead, so the floor is a flex, but Mitchell's snaps went from 17 to 26 and the passing-down work is leaving with them. Weeks 14-17 look fine on ESPN's sheet (11.1), but that assumes a role he's currently losing.

    Why not the projection (10.7) Trimmed about a point from ESPN because Week 3 showed a three-way split with Mitchell and Vidal eating into his snaps and receiving work.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    8.9
    Above repl.
    +1.7
    Wks 14–17
    9.9
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  67. 67TE6Dalton KincaidBUF · Marvins RoomHold11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.1, likely 5.2–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–27
    2. Week 5: expected 11.1, likely 4.4–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.9
    3. Week 6: expected 11.4, likely 4.5–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 11.6, likely 4.6–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.8
    6. Week 9: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    7. Week 10: expected 11.4, likely 4.5–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.4
    8. Week 11: expected 11.7, likely 4.7–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.2
    9. Week 12: expected 11.4, likely 4.6–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.6
    10. Week 13: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.8
    11. Week 14: expected 11.6, likely 4.6–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.9
    12. Week 15: expected 11.4, likely 4.5–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.4
    13. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.6
    14. Week 17: expected 11.7, likely 4.7–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The part-time label is gone: at least 66% of snaps in all three games, after never consistently reaching that in 2025, and he led Buffalo in targets, catches and yards over Weeks 1-2 (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He has only 17 targets in three games and 263 yards on 14 catches, so production depends on big plays (Week 3: 2 catches, 3.8 points). Above ESPN's 9.4 but below the 14.8 he has averaged. Week 7 bye.

    Why not the projection (9.4) Raised to 11.5 from ESPN's 9.4 because his snap share is up to 66%+ and he is a top Bills target, but efficiency will cool.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.7
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  68. 68TE7Sam LaPortaDET · London BridgeHold11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21
    2. Week 5: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–22
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–22
    5. Week 8: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–20.1
    6. Week 9: expected 12.0, likely 6.2–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–22.2
    7. Week 10: expected 11.2, likely 5.8–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–20.7
    8. Week 11: expected 11.3, likely 5.9–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–20.9
    9. Week 12: expected 11.6, likely 6–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.4
    10. Week 13: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.1
    11. Week 14: expected 11.6, likely 6–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.4
    12. Week 15: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–20
    13. Week 16: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.6
    14. Week 17: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Healthy after back surgery and running as Detroit's No. 2 or No. 3 target behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs: 23 targets in three games, 9.8, 17.2 and 7.4 points (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). That is a low-end TE1 with weekly touchdown variance, which is about what ESPN's 11.3 says. Only about 1.5 points a week better than the waiver wire. Week 6 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.7
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  69. 69WR27Denzel BostonCLE · Los Angeles LesbiansHold11.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.9, likely 5.4–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.2
    2. Week 5: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.7
    3. Week 6: expected 11.5, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.3
    4. Week 7: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    5. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.9
    6. Week 9: expected 11.6, likely 5.7–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.5
    7. Week 10: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.4
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 11.5, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    10. Week 13: expected 11.5, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.3
    11. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 5.6–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    12. Week 15: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    13. Week 16: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.9
    14. Week 17: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–23
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie has 2 TDs in three games and played 89% of snaps in Week 3. NBC calls him Cleveland's emerging primary receiving weapon while Jerry Jeudy fades (nbcsports.com). His 14.2 PPG is propped up by TDs (only 4 targets in Week 3), and Deshaun Watson's passing caps the offense, so we land between ESPN and his actual output. The every-down role is real.

    Why not the projection (10.9) Bumped above ESPN's 10.9 for an every-down rookie role (89% snaps) and 2 early TDs, but not to his 14.2 actual since the TD pace won't last on this offense.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.5
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.5
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  70. 70WR28Jakobi MeyersJAX · Horus St. BrownBuy11.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.4, likely 6.7–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–20
    2. Week 5: expected 11.2, likely 6.6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.6
    3. Week 6: expected 10.9, likely 6.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–19.2
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 11.7, likely 6.9–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–20.4
    6. Week 9: expected 11.3, likely 6.7–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.8
    7. Week 10: expected 11.2, likely 6.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.6
    8. Week 11: expected 11.3, likely 6.7–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.9
    9. Week 12: expected 11.3, likely 6.7–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.9
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 6.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.6
    11. Week 14: expected 11.0, likely 6.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–19.2
    12. Week 15: expected 10.9, likely 6.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–19.1
    13. Week 16: expected 11.8, likely 7–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–20.8
    14. Week 17: expected 11.8, likely 7–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–20.6
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Meyers led Jacksonville with 9 targets in Week 3 and has caught 10 of 11 targets for 132 yards and 2 TDs this season (cbssports.com). Brian Thomas Jr. has played as few as 23 snaps, so Meyers and Parker Washington are Trevor Lawrence's main wideouts. Reliable hands in a rising offense at a ~550 price make him a cheap WR3.

    Why not the projection (10.7) Above ESPN's 10.7: he's become the Jaguars' target leader while BTJ's snaps shrink.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.5
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  71. 71WR29Stefon DiggsWSH · Marvins RoomHold11.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.7
    2. Week 5: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    3. Week 6: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    6. Week 9: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.9
    7. Week 10: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.9
    8. Week 11: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    9. Week 12: expected 11.7, likely 5.7–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.6
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    11. Week 14: expected 10.9, likely 5.3–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.1
    12. Week 15: expected 11.1, likely 5.5–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    13. Week 16: expected 10.1, likely 5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.7
    14. Week 17: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Diggs is Washington's clear No. 2 behind Terry McLaurin. He has 14.8 PPG, but that rests on TDs in Weeks 1-2, and his 4-33 on 7 targets in Week 3 is the floor (nbcsports.com). At 32 his target share is steady but not dominant, and TDs will slow, so he's an 11-point WR3 who loses value to TD regression rather than to any change in role. His Week 7 bye is clean for the playoffs.

    Why not the projection (10.9) Slightly above ESPN's 10.9 given 7+ targets a week as the WR2, well below his 14.8 actual because the two early TDs inflate it.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.5
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    10.8
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  72. 72WR30Josh DownsIND · Marvins RoomHold11.2ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.0, likely 8.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–24.5
    2. Week 5: expected 12.5, likely 7.4–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–21.9
    3. Week 6: expected 12.9, likely 7.6–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–22.6
    4. Week 7: expected 11.9, likely 7.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–20.9
    5. Week 8: expected 10.5, likely 6.2–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.5
    6. Week 9: expected 11.1, likely 6.6–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–19.5
    7. Week 10: expected 11.0, likely 6.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–19.2
    8. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 6–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 4–17.9
    9. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 6.3–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 10.4, likely 6.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.2
    12. Week 15: expected 10.4, likely 6.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.6, likely 6.3–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–18.5
    14. Week 17: expected 10.1, likely 6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 4–17.7
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Downs led the Colts with 11 targets in Week 3 (5-77) with Alec Pierce out with a heel injury, as Indianapolis worked the middle of the field (nbcsports.com). Keenan Allen (groin) was ruled out for Week 4, which pushed even more volume his way (nbcsports.com). The slot role gives him a steady 10-12 PPR floor, and his Week 13 bye is outside the playoff window. Fair price at ~1,375.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.4
    Above repl.
    +1.5
    Wks 14–17
    10.4
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  73. 73QB11Bryce YoungCAR · Hanging with HernandezHold17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 20.8, likely 14.6–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–30.9
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 16.5, likely 9.5–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–30
    4. Week 7: expected 17.5, likely 10.1–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–31.8
    5. Week 8: expected 18.6, likely 10.7–26, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.7
    6. Week 9: expected 16.5, likely 9.5–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–29.9
    7. Week 10: expected 18.4, likely 10.6–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.4
    8. Week 11: expected 17.9, likely 10.3–25, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–32.4
    9. Week 12: expected 16.6, likely 9.5–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–30.1
    10. Week 13: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–27
    11. Week 14: expected 19.3, likely 11.1–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–35
    12. Week 15: expected 18.3, likely 10.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.1
    13. Week 16: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–28.6
    14. Week 17: expected 15.9, likely 9.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–28.7
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    31.4 and 24.1 to open the year, then 13.6 against Cleveland in Week 3. Nothing in his track record supports a 23-point pace, so expect him to settle near 17. The playoff schedule (NO, CIN, @PIT, SEA) mixes two soft spots with two good defenses. At 23.1 ppg so far the market is right to stay skeptical.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.2
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    17.3
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  74. 74QB12Kyler MurrayMIN · Ari's Astounding TeamBuy17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 18.9, likely 12.5–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    2. Week 5: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 18.1, likely 11.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.8
    5. Week 8: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    6. Week 9: expected 18.2, likely 12–24, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–30
    7. Week 10: expected 17.3, likely 11.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.6
    8. Week 11: expected 15.9, likely 10.5–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.2
    9. Week 12: expected 16.9, likely 11.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.8
    10. Week 13: expected 17.5, likely 11.6–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.9
    11. Week 14: expected 15.2, likely 10–20, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–25
    12. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 12.6–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.6
    13. Week 16: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    14. Week 17: expected 16.0, likely 10.6–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.5
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    His 3.3 ppg is misleading: a concussion on a late hit five plays into Week 1 knocked him out of that game and out of Week 2 (vikings.com). Healthy, he is Minnesota's starter in a good passing offense, and his legs add points most QBs in this range cannot. Playoff slate (@NE, DET, WSH, @NYJ) is friendly outside Detroit. Cheap QB2 insurance with low-end QB1 upside.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.2
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    17.2
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  75. 75QB13Matthew StaffordLAR · Los Angeles LesbiansHold17.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.3, likely 10.8–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–26.9
    2. Week 5: expected 18.6, likely 12.3–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.8
    3. Week 6: expected 19.3, likely 12.7–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–31.8
    4. Week 7: expected 17.0, likely 11.2–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–28.1
    5. Week 8: expected 17.8, likely 11.8–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.4
    6. Week 9: expected 18.1, likely 11.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.8
    7. Week 10: expected 18.6, likely 12.2–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 18.6, likely 12.3–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.7
    10. Week 13: expected 16.7, likely 11–22, 10th–90th percentile 6–27.6
    11. Week 14: expected 16.2, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.7
    12. Week 15: expected 18.7, likely 12.4–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.9
    13. Week 16: expected 14.8, likely 9.8–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–24.4
    14. Week 17: expected 16.2, likely 10.7–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.7
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    17.3 ppg in a pass-first offense, though the range is wide (4.1 in Week 1, 27.0 in Week 2). Zero rushing means his floor depends on TDs. The playoff run is rough (@SF, DAL, @SEA, @TB) with two division road trips, so he is a matchup QB2 in December.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.2
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    16.5
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  76. 76WR31DJ MooreBUF · London BridgeSell11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.8
    2. Week 5: expected 5.6, likely 0–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.9 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 11.6, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.8
    6. Week 9: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21
    7. Week 10: expected 11.5, likely 5.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.4
    8. Week 11: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    9. Week 12: expected 11.6, likely 5.7–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.5
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.8
    11. Week 14: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–23
    12. Week 15: expected 11.6, likely 5.7–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.6
    13. Week 16: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.5
    14. Week 17: expected 12.0, likely 5.9–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Left Week 4 in the second quarter with his second shoulder injury of the season and was downgraded to doubtful (buffalobills.com). The Week 4 injury report had already listed an AC joint sprain (nbcsports.com). Even healthy in Buffalo he was boom-bust (21.0, -0.1, 12.7). Week 5 is questionable, Week 7 is the bye.

    Why not the projection (13.3) Trimmed 1.8 below ESPN for a reinjured shoulder and an 11.2 ppg start in a spread-out Bills passing game.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.3
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    11.6
    Games
    12.5
    London Bridge →
  77. 77RB26Saquon BarkleyPHI · Marvins Room · out Wk 5Sell11.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.5
    2. Week 5: out
    3. Week 6: expected 5.8, likely 0–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.9 (questionable)
    4. Week 7: expected 5.8, likely 0–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.8 (questionable)
    5. Week 8: expected 11.1, likely 5.7–15, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.8
    6. Week 9: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.4
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.4
    9. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.9
    10. Week 13: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22
    11. Week 14: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22
    12. Week 15: expected 9.9, likely 5.1–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.6
    13. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 5.5–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.7
    14. Week 17: expected 10.1, likely 5.2–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Two injuries in three games. He left Week 2 with a stinger and has played in neck padding since (inquirer.com), then strained his hamstring on his second carry of Week 4 and was ruled out (nbcsports.com). No timeline yet (espn.com). Even before that, he had 34 carries and 3 catches through three games: 7 ppg with no tush-push TDs and almost no receiving. We have him out Week 5 and questionable Weeks 6-7, then at 11 ppg, way under ESPN's 15.2. The market (4,765) is still paying for the name.

    Why not the projection (15.2) Down from ESPN's 15.2 to 11 on a 7 ppg start and almost no receiving role; out Week 5 and questionable Weeks 6-7 for the Week 4 hamstring.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    8.6
    Above repl.
    +1.4
    Wks 14–17
    10.6
    Games
    11
    Marvins Room →
  78. 78WR32Jaylen WaddleDEN · Team Cash Money SquaHold11.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.4, likely 4.1–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.8
    2. Week 5: expected 10.9, likely 3.9–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.7
    3. Week 6: expected 10.5, likely 3.8–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.8
    4. Week 7: expected 11.4, likely 4.1–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.8
    5. Week 8: expected 10.9, likely 4–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.7
    6. Week 9: expected 10.8, likely 3.9–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.4
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 11.0, likely 4–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–23.9
    9. Week 12: expected 10.5, likely 3.8–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.7
    10. Week 13: expected 11.6, likely 4.2–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.2
    11. Week 14: expected 10.8, likely 3.9–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.5
    12. Week 15: expected 10.9, likely 3.9–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.6
    13. Week 16: expected 11.6, likely 4.2–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.2
    14. Week 17: expected 10.4, likely 3.8–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Waddle is Denver's volume WR1 on paper: he tied for the team lead with 7 targets in Week 3 but turned them into 2 catches for 10 yards, and has 12 receiving yards combined in Weeks 1 and 3 around a 138-yard Week 2 (rotowire.com). Bo Nix's passing game under first-time play-caller Davis Webb hasn't produced many big plays yet, so the boom weeks come with a 1.2-point floor. The playoff schedule is neutral, and the market (~1,850) is still paying for his Miami ceiling.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.2
    Above repl.
    +1.3
    Wks 14–17
    10.9
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  79. 79RB27Josh JacobsGB · Kirkland SignatureBuy14.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 7.5, likely 0–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.3 (questionable)
    6. Week 9: expected 13.4, likely 6.9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–25.1
    7. Week 10: expected 12.8, likely 6.6–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 12.4, likely 6.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.4
    10. Week 13: expected 14.4, likely 8.9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.2
    11. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.6
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.3
    13. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.9
    14. Week 17: expected 13.4, likely 7–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Jacobs has been on the Commissioner's Exempt list since late August after pleading no contest to misdemeanor battery and property-damage charges (sports.yahoo.com); ESPN's Jeremy Fowler expects a 4-6 game ban, and exempt-list games count toward it, with a ruling likely by mid-October (oddsshopper.com). ESPN starts him in Week 8, a reasonable middle case, and he could be back as early as Weeks 6-7 if the league credits time served. I've marked Week 8 questionable because an 8-game ban is possible. On return he takes back a backfield that MarShawn Lloyd hasn't secured, and he's a 14-point back for the playoff weeks (ESPN W14-17: 13.4). Moved up one tier from base T6 because all of his value lands in Weeks 8-17, when it counts.

    Why not the projection (13.0) ppg above ESPN's 13.0 because he was a 13-TD workhorse in 2025 and no Packers back has claimed the job; Week 8 questionable in case the suspension runs past six games.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    8.5
    Above repl.
    +1.3
    Wks 14–17
    14.5
    Games
    8.5
    Kirkland Signature →
  80. 80QB14Jayden DanielsWSH · Marvins RoomBuy19.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 10.6, likely 0–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.6 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 18.6, likely 10.7–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.8
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 19.5, likely 11.2–27.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–35.4
    6. Week 9: expected 18.7, likely 10.8–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–34
    7. Week 10: expected 20.3, likely 14.2–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–30.2
    8. Week 11: expected 20.5, likely 14.3–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–30.5
    9. Week 12: expected 21.6, likely 15.1–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.1
    10. Week 13: expected 20.0, likely 11.5–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 4–36.2
    11. Week 14: expected 19.0, likely 10.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–34.4
    12. Week 15: expected 20.1, likely 14–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 9–29.8
    13. Week 16: expected 17.0, likely 9.8–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.8
    14. Week 17: expected 18.2, likely 10.5–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–33
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Out since dislocating his left elbow (the same one he dislocated last November) in Week 2. He practiced on a limited basis before Week 4, and Washington is targeting Week 5 against the Giants if he gets through a full week of practice (covers.com). Week 5 is marked questionable. Schefter reports the elbow could need offseason surgery, so re-injury risk is real, but at a 431 market value you get a rushing QB with a 20-point ceiling and a decent playoff slate (HOU, ATL, @MIN, @JAX).

    Why not the projection (19.2) Week 5 questionable: the return hinges on a clean practice week.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.0
    Above repl.
    +1.2
    Wks 14–17
    18.6
    Games
    11.5
    Marvins Room →
  81. 81TE8Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · Team Cash Money SquaHold11.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.2, likely 4.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.1
    2. Week 5: expected 10.9, likely 4.4–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.5
    3. Week 6: expected 11.1, likely 4.5–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23
    4. Week 7: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.6
    5. Week 8: expected 10.6, likely 4.2–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.8
    6. Week 9: expected 11.3, likely 4.5–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.2
    7. Week 10: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 4.4–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.8
    10. Week 13: expected 11.1, likely 4.5–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23
    11. Week 14: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.6
    12. Week 15: expected 11.1, likely 4.4–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.9
    13. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.7
    14. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 4.6–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.6
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Two touchdowns on 7 of 9 targets in Week 3 inflated the 12.9 PPG (24.1 that week, 4.1 and 10.4 before) (nbcsports.com). James Palmer calls him Cleveland's No. 3 pass catcher behind rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, though Deshaun Watson's checkdown style keeps feeding him (nbcsports.com). A back-end TE1 who needs touchdowns, roughly 1 point a week over replacement. Week 11 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.3
    Above repl.
    +1.2
    Wks 14–17
    11.1
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  82. 82WR33Ladd McConkeyLAC · Marvins RoomHold11.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.8
    2. Week 5: expected 5.4, likely 0–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.3 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.7
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 10.9, likely 5.3–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21
    6. Week 9: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.6
    7. Week 10: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.1
    8. Week 11: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    9. Week 12: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.4
    10. Week 13: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.3
    11. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.9
    12. Week 15: expected 11.5, likely 5.6–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.3
    13. Week 16: expected 11.9, likely 5.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.1
    14. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    McConkey led the Chargers with 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD through three games, but a foot injury made him questionable for Week 4 (sports.yahoo.com), and he aggravated it and was ruled out of that game (draftsharks.com). There's no timeline yet, so Week 5 is a coin flip. When he plays he's Justin Herbert's most reliable target, about 11-12 PPR points a game, but his ~1,950 market price is a lot for a player who keeps showing up on the injury report.

    Why not the projection (11.3) Level kept at ESPN's 11.3; Week 5 marked questionable after he re-aggravated the foot in Week 4.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.1
    Above repl.
    +1.2
    Wks 14–17
    11.5
    Games
    12.5
    Marvins Room →
  83. 83RB28TreVeyon HendersonNE · Abhinav's TeamSell9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.4
    2. Week 5: expected 9.4, likely 3.8–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.7
    3. Week 6: expected 9.2, likely 3.7–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.3
    4. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 3.6–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.1
    5. Week 8: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 1–20
    6. Week 9: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.3
    7. Week 10: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 8.9, likely 3.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.6
    10. Week 13: expected 9.3, likely 3.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.5
    11. Week 14: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17
    12. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 3.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.1
    13. Week 16: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.3
    14. Week 17: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Henderson took the lead from Rhamondre Stevenson once he came back from his Week 1 ankle injury (16-76-1 in Week 2), then went 8 carries for 23 yards in Week 3 while the two backs combined for 45 rushing yards against Jacksonville (sports.yahoo.com). The talent is real, but in a committee where Stevenson still catches passes, his weeks will swing between 13.6 and 3.9. A flex with upside, priced like more than that.

    Why not the projection (9.8) Shaded under ESPN because the Stevenson split is still unsettled and the Week 3 dud is as likely as the Week 2 spike.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    +1.2
    Wks 14–17
    8.4
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  84. 84TE9Juwan JohnsonNO · Abhinav's TeamSell11.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.5, likely 4.6–17, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.7
    2. Week 5: expected 10.8, likely 4.3–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.4
    3. Week 6: expected 11.7, likely 4.7–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24
    4. Week 7: expected 11.3, likely 4.5–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.2
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 10.6, likely 4.2–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.8
    7. Week 10: expected 10.8, likely 4.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.2
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 4.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.2
    9. Week 12: expected 10.8, likely 4.3–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.4
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 4.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23
    11. Week 14: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22
    12. Week 15: expected 10.5, likely 4.2–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.6
    13. Week 16: expected 11.3, likely 4.5–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.3
    14. Week 17: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    TE4 in PPR on 15 catches, 173 yards and 3 TDs from 19 targets, with a career-best 78.9% catch rate, and he is clearly out-snapping Noah Fant (158 to 109) (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Two of those touchdowns came in Week 3, and Jordyn Tyson's return from IR around late October takes away targets. Scored at 11.0, not his 16.1 actual. Sell the TE4 finish while it's still current. Week 8 bye.

    Why not the projection (10.1) Raised to 11.0 from ESPN's 10.1 because he is the clear TE1 for Tyler Shough, but well below his 16.1 actual because the touchdown rate and Tyson's absence will not last.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.2
    Above repl.
    +1.1
    Wks 14–17
    10.8
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  85. 85RB29Zach CharbonnetSEA · Marvins RoomHold11.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 5.1, likely 0–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.7 (questionable)
    4. Week 7: expected 10.6, likely 5.5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 3–19.9
    5. Week 8: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.7
    6. Week 9: expected 12.2, likely 6.3–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.9
    7. Week 10: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.5
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–19.1
    10. Week 13: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22
    11. Week 14: expected 11.8, likely 6.1–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.2
    12. Week 15: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.3
    14. Week 17: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seattle opened Charbonnet's 21-day PUP practice window on Oct 1, and he has to miss at least one more game; the team has been vague on how much of the window it will use, and his left quad is still visibly smaller than his right eight months after the ACL tear (nbcsports.com). With Jadarian Price on IR until Week 8 and Emanuel Wilson averaging 3.4 yards a carry (sports.yahoo.com), he should walk into lead work for Weeks 6-7, then split with Price, who has had fumble problems. Week 6 is marked questionable for the ramp-up, and I've shaded his ppg below ESPN's because a back coming off an ACL usually takes a few weeks to get to full speed.

    Why not the projection (12.6) ppg is 1.6 under ESPN because he's coming off a January ACL tear with a visibly weaker quad and will share with Price after Week 8; Week 6 is questionable because the activation date is open.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    +1.1
    Wks 14–17
    10.8
    Games
    10.5
    Marvins Room →
  86. 86DEF1Vikings D/STMIN · Marvins RoomHold7.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 1.4–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–24
    2. Week 5: expected 7.7, likely 1.2–13, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.4
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 1.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.3
    5. Week 8: expected 5.0, likely 0.8–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.4
    6. Week 9: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.7
    7. Week 10: expected 7.1, likely 1.1–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–19
    8. Week 11: expected 4.7, likely 0.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.5
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.7
    10. Week 13: expected 8.0, likely 1.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.2, likely 1.2–14, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.9
    12. Week 15: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.3
    13. Week 16: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.4
    14. Week 17: expected 8.6, likely 1.3–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.8
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    13.3 ppg through three weeks (5, 16, 19), the best of any rostered D/ST. Expect regression from a 19-point pace, but the unit has produced in all three games. Playoff slate (@NE, DET, WSH, @NYJ) is attractive outside Detroit. The one D/ST worth holding all season.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    6.5
    Above repl.
    +1.0
    Wks 14–17
    7.4
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  87. 87WR34Carnell TateTEN · I have a dreamHold10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.9, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–17.3
    2. Week 5: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.9
    3. Week 6: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.9
    4. Week 7: expected 10.3, likely 5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.9
    5. Week 8: expected 10.5, likely 5.1–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.3
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 10.6, likely 5.2–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.5
    8. Week 11: expected 11.1, likely 5.4–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.4
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 5.1–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.2
    10. Week 13: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.3
    11. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 5.5–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.9
    12. Week 15: expected 10.9, likely 5.3–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.1
    13. Week 16: expected 10.4, likely 5.1–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.2
    14. Week 17: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.8
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie leads Tennessee with a ~23% target share, but the offense is bad enough that his best game was 6-58 on nine targets (nbcsports.com). ESPN's 14.0 assumes a passing game the Titans don't have; at 8.4 actual he is near replacement level. Bench stash for dynasty-minded managers, not a weekly starter yet.

    Why not the projection (14.0) ESPN's 14.0 is far above his 8.4 actual in a weak Titans passing game; we set 10.5 for a team-leading share in a bad offense.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.8
    Above repl.
    +0.9
    Wks 14–17
    10.7
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  88. 88WR35Terry McLaurinWSH · Los Angeles LesbiansHold12.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 6.2, likely 0–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.7 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 12.0, likely 5.9–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.3
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 12.0, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    6. Week 9: expected 11.7, likely 5.7–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.6
    7. Week 10: expected 12.2, likely 6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.6
    8. Week 11: expected 12.2, likely 6–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.7
    9. Week 12: expected 12.6, likely 6.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.4
    10. Week 13: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    11. Week 14: expected 11.8, likely 5.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.9
    12. Week 15: expected 12.1, likely 5.9–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.4
    13. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.4
    14. Week 17: expected 11.9, likely 5.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.1
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A Friday hamstring tweak got worse and made him inactive for Week 4 (nbcsports.com). Jayden Daniels also sat with Marcus Mariota starting (si.com). Week 5 vs the Giants is questionable for him, and the offense swings with Daniels' elbow. 10.0 ppg so far, Week 7 bye.

    Why not the projection (12.6) Trimmed 0.6 for a 10.0 ppg start and QB uncertainty; Week 5 questionable for the hamstring.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.8
    Above repl.
    +0.9
    Wks 14–17
    11.7
    Games
    11.5
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  89. 89K1Brandon AubreyDAL · I have a dreamHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    2. Week 5: expected 10.2, likely 6.1–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–17.6
    3. Week 6: expected 10.1, likely 6.1–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.5
    4. Week 7: expected 9.6, likely 5.8–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.7
    5. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 6.5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–18.6
    6. Week 9: expected 10.1, likely 6.1–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.5
    7. Week 10: expected 10.1, likely 6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.4
    8. Week 11: expected 10.5, likely 6.3–14, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–18.1
    9. Week 12: expected 10.1, likely 6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.4
    10. Week 13: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 9.6, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    13. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.3
    14. Week 17: expected 10.6, likely 6.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–18.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The best leg in football in a Dallas offense that moves the ball and stalls in the red zone often enough to give him 10-plus a week. 9.7 ppg so far, after a 2-point Week 1. The catch: a Week 14 bye takes him out of the first playoff week.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.9
    Wks 14–17
    7.6
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  90. 90WR36Malik WashingtonMIA · Marvins RoomHold10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.2, likely 4.5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.9
    2. Week 5: expected 10.6, likely 5.2–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.6
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 10.4, likely 5.1–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.1
    5. Week 8: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.8
    6. Week 9: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22
    7. Week 10: expected 10.7, likely 5.3–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.8
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 5.3–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21
    9. Week 12: expected 10.5, likely 5.2–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.4
    10. Week 13: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    11. Week 14: expected 10.6, likely 5.2–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.5
    12. Week 15: expected 10.7, likely 5.3–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.8
    13. Week 16: expected 10.6, likely 5.2–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.6
    14. Week 17: expected 11.0, likely 5.4–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–21.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Has a team-high 23 targets, but only 12-152 from them (rotowire.com), and the volume came with rookie Caleb Douglas hurt (ankle, out Weeks 3-4: nbcsports.com). When Douglas returns, the share drops. A flex for desperate managers.

    Why not the projection (11.9) Lowered 1.4 from ESPN because his 8.7 ppg came with Douglas out, and the share shrinks when Douglas returns.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.7
    Above repl.
    +0.8
    Wks 14–17
    10.7
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  91. 91TE10Tucker KraftGB · Los Angeles LesbiansBuy10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.9
    2. Week 5: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–19.8
    3. Week 6: expected 11.3, likely 5.9–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–20.9
    4. Week 7: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.1
    5. Week 8: expected 10.5, likely 5.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–19.4
    6. Week 9: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–18.8
    7. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 5.1–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–18.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–18.6
    10. Week 13: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–20
    11. Week 14: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–20.6
    12. Week 15: expected 11.2, likely 5.8–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–20.8
    13. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 5.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–19.4
    14. Week 17: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–19.2
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The box scores are ugly (6.5 PPG, TE32 through Week 3), but the usage is that of a starter: every one of 50 snaps and a 94% route rate in Week 2, and a 15.1% target share (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). A 52.9% catch rate and two drops with Jordan Love look like a post-ACL rust problem, not a role problem, and he was the TE1 by PPG over Weeks 1-8 of 2025. Moved up one tier (base T7) for rebound upside. A buy at 997. Week 11 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    9.8
    Above repl.
    +0.7
    Wks 14–17
    10.8
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  92. 92RB30Rhamondre StevensonNE · I have a dreamSell8.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.2
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.5
    3. Week 6: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.2
    4. Week 7: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.1
    5. Week 8: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.8
    6. Week 9: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–17
    7. Week 10: expected 9.1, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–17.1
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.5
    11. Week 14: expected 7.7, likely 4–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.5
    12. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.8
    13. Week 16: expected 8.3, likely 4.3–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.6
    14. Week 17: expected 8.2, likely 4.3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    TreVeyon Henderson took the lead in Week 2 (16 carries for 76 and a TD) and out-carried Stevenson again in Week 3 (cbssports.com). Stevenson scored 3.6 and 6.8 and is 'in the danger zone' (si.com). We cut nearly four points from ESPN's 12.2. A bench back now. Bye Week 11.

    Why not the projection (12.2) Nearly four points below ESPN because Henderson has taken the lead role.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.9
    Above repl.
    +0.7
    Wks 14–17
    8.0
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  93. 93RB31Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH · Free WinHold8.4ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.2
    2. Week 5: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.4
    3. Week 6: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.2
    6. Week 9: expected 7.7, likely 4–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.4
    7. Week 10: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.5
    8. Week 11: expected 8.7, likely 4.5–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.3
    9. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–17
    10. Week 13: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.8
    11. Week 14: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.8
    12. Week 15: expected 8.3, likely 4.3–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.6
    13. Week 16: expected 7.1, likely 3.7–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.3
    14. Week 17: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–10, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.8
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    With Rachaad White's shoulder injury keeping him out of Week 4 and making him questionable for Week 5 (nbcsports.com), Croskey-Merritt is the early-down lead for now. Washington re-signed Austin Ekeler for third downs, which caps his receiving work. Once White is healthy it's a three-man rotation, and his 7.9 PPG with White in the lineup is the more honest number for the rest of the season.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.8
    Above repl.
    +0.6
    Wks 14–17
    7.7
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  94. 94RB32Kyle MonangaiCHI · Los Angeles LesbiansBuy8.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.6
    2. Week 5: expected 4.6, likely 0–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.3 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.5
    4. Week 7: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.4
    5. Week 8: expected 7.5, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.7
    6. Week 9: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.3
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 9.4, likely 3.7–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.7
    9. Week 12: expected 9.2, likely 3.7–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.3
    10. Week 13: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.5
    11. Week 14: expected 9.3, likely 3.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.5
    12. Week 15: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.3
    13. Week 16: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.1
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Monangai left Week 4 against the Jets late with a thumb injury that Ben Johnson said is being evaluated (heavy.com), so Week 5 at Green Bay is questionable. The bigger story is D'Andre Swift's knee, which cost him practice the week before (nbcsports.com); every Swift absence makes Monangai a must-start. He's at 711 on FantasyCalc, which is cheap for the best contingent back in a run-first offense, if the thumb turns out to be a sprain.

    Why not the projection (9.2) Week 5 questionable for the thumb injury still under evaluation.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.8
    Above repl.
    +0.6
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    12.5
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  95. 95QB15Jordan LoveGB · Horus St. BrownHold16.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.1, likely 10–20, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–25
    2. Week 5: expected 17.1, likely 11.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.3
    3. Week 6: expected 18.1, likely 12–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.9
    4. Week 7: expected 18.2, likely 12–24, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30
    5. Week 8: expected 17.2, likely 11.3–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–28.3
    6. Week 9: expected 14.7, likely 9.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–24.3
    7. Week 10: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.9
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 14.2, likely 9.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.5
    10. Week 13: expected 16.8, likely 11.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.8
    11. Week 14: expected 17.9, likely 11.8–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.6
    12. Week 15: expected 18.8, likely 12.4–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31
    13. Week 16: expected 16.1, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.6
    14. Week 17: expected 15.5, likely 10.2–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Steady 13.8-19.5 range in a balanced Packers offense, which is exactly replacement-plus. The ceiling is capped by a run-first script. The playoff run is mixed: BUF, MIA, @CHI, HOU. Fine as a bye-week fill-in, not a starter you build around.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    15.3
    Above repl.
    +0.5
    Wks 14–17
    17.1
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  96. 96WR37DK MetcalfPIT · Kirkland SignatureHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.8, likely 3.2–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.1
    2. Week 5: expected 10.6, likely 3.8–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.1
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    4. Week 7: expected 10.5, likely 3.8–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.8
    5. Week 8: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.6
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 10.1, likely 3.7–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.9
    8. Week 11: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.5
    9. Week 12: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.9
    10. Week 13: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.4
    11. Week 14: expected 10.0, likely 3.6–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.7
    12. Week 15: expected 10.3, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.1
    14. Week 17: expected 10.1, likely 3.7–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Under 40 yards in all three games, his longest catch is 16, and he dropped a key third down in Week 3; Aaron Rodgers prefers intermediate throws to the deep shots Metcalf needs (nbcsports.com). He is TD-or-nothing at 8.9 ppg. ESPN's 11.5 is too generous, and he is roughly a replacement-level receiver until the connection improves. Week 9 bye.

    Why not the projection (11.5) Cut 1.5 below ESPN after three games under 40 yards with Rodgers avoiding deep shots.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    10.2
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  97. 97WR38Emeka EgbukaTB · Marvins RoomSell10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.2, likely 5.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.7
    2. Week 5: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–19
    3. Week 6: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.4
    4. Week 7: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–19
    5. Week 8: expected 9.9, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    6. Week 9: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.7, likely 5.3–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.8
    9. Week 12: expected 9.9, likely 4.9–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.3
    10. Week 13: expected 10.1, likely 4.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.5
    11. Week 14: expected 9.9, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    12. Week 15: expected 10.3, likely 5.1–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20
    13. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 4.8–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 4.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.5
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Egbuka leads the Bucs with 20 targets through three weeks, including 9 in Week 3 (cbssports.com). But Baker Mayfield dislocated his throwing thumb and is out until Week 7 at the earliest, with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starting (nfl.com). His 10-11 PPR floor drops for Weeks 5-6, and ~1,550 is a WR2 price for a WR3 producer, so sell now and let someone else wait out Daniels.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    9.9
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  98. 98WR39Jordan AddisonMIN · Free WinHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.0, likely 4.7–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–28.2
    2. Week 5: expected 9.8, likely 3.5–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.2
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.6
    5. Week 8: expected 10.3, likely 3.7–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.3
    6. Week 9: expected 10.1, likely 3.6–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.9
    7. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 3.5–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.2
    8. Week 11: expected 9.5, likely 3.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.7
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 3.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.6
    10. Week 13: expected 9.5, likely 3.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.7
    11. Week 14: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    12. Week 15: expected 10.4, likely 3.8–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.6
    13. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 3.6–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.8
    14. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Addison's 20-point Week 3 (5-90-1 on 9 targets) came with Justin Jefferson leaving after 7 snaps, and his 0 and 4.1 before that came with Carson Wentz under center after Kyler Murray's concussion (nbcsports.com). Jefferson's ankle sprain is short-term and he's expected back for Week 5 (profootballrumors.com), which puts Addison back at WR2 on a team with QB problems. He's a boom-or-bust FLEX, not the steady 11-point player ESPN projects.

    Why not the projection (11.4) ESPN's 11.4 is too high for a WR2 behind a healthy Jefferson with a shaky QB situation; Weeks 1-2 (4.1 total) are closer to his floor than Week 3 is to his median.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    9.7
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  99. 99WR40Kalif RaymondCHI · Abhinav's TeamHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.1, likely 6–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.6
    2. Week 5: expected 10.1, likely 4.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.6
    3. Week 6: expected 9.5, likely 4.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    4. Week 7: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–18.2
    5. Week 8: expected 9.2, likely 4.5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.8
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.3
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.0, likely 4.9–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.4
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 5.1–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.1
    10. Week 13: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–19
    11. Week 14: expected 10.1, likely 5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.6
    12. Week 15: expected 10.1, likely 4.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.5
    13. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 4.9–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.4
    14. Week 17: expected 10.5, likely 5.1–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Raymond has been the surprise of Chicago's offense: 19 catches on 21 targets for 214 yards and a TD through Week 3, ahead of Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III (fantasypros.com). He knows Ben Johnson's system from Detroit, and short targets suit Case Keenum. When Caleb Williams returns around Week 5-6, the ball should go downfield to Odunze more often, so we expect about 10 PPR points, not 15.5.

    Why not the projection (8.2) Well above ESPN's 8.2 for a real slot role (21 targets, 19 catches), but below his 15.5 because Caleb Williams' return should move targets to Odunze.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    10.2
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  100. 100WR41Rome OdunzeCHI · Hanging with HernandezBuy10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 3.3–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.6
    2. Week 5: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.2
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    4. Week 7: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.9
    5. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.3
    6. Week 9: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.2
    9. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 3.8–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23
    10. Week 13: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.6
    11. Week 14: expected 10.3, likely 3.7–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.5
    12. Week 15: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.3
    13. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 3.7–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–22.2
    14. Week 17: expected 10.7, likely 3.9–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–23.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Odunze has scored exactly 7.2, 7.3 and 7.4 as the deep threat in Ben Johnson's offense, which matters less with Case Keenum checking it down while Caleb Williams is out (nbcsports.com). Williams' Grade 2 hamstring strain from Week 2 carries a 3-4 week timeline, which points to a Week 5-6 return (espn.com). With his real QB back he's a 10-11 point WR2/3 with spike weeks, so ~730 is a buy-low price.

    Why not the projection (11.0) Shaded below ESPN's 11.0 because Kalif Raymond has taken the short targets and Odunze's role depends on Williams, but well above his 7.3 actual since Williams is due back soon.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    10.4
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  101. 101DEF2Seahawks D/STSEA · Team Cash Money SquaHold6.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.9, likely 1.2–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.9
    2. Week 5: expected 4.3, likely 0.6–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.5
    3. Week 6: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.5
    4. Week 7: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.1
    5. Week 8: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.4
    6. Week 9: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.4
    7. Week 10: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 4.2, likely 0.6–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.2
    10. Week 13: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.6, likely 1.3–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–23
    12. Week 15: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.3
    13. Week 16: expected 5.6, likely 0.8–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15
    14. Week 17: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.2
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Defending champions with a good pass rush; 9.3 ppg so far, but they gave up 33 to Washington in Week 3. Playoff slate (NYG, @PHI, LAR, @CAR) opens with a great matchup.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.9
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    7.2
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  102. 102DEF3Steelers D/STPIT · Los Angeles LesbiansHold6.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.2, likely 1.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.8
    2. Week 5: expected 7.1, likely 1.1–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–19
    3. Week 6: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.3
    4. Week 7: expected 6.0, likely 0.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–16
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 1.2–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.1
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.6
    8. Week 11: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.2
    9. Week 12: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.1
    10. Week 13: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.6
    11. Week 14: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.1
    12. Week 15: expected 4.0, likely 0.6–6.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.7
    13. Week 16: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.7
    14. Week 17: expected 7.1, likely 1.1–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    10.3 ppg, led by a 19-point Week 1. The early schedule is good, but Weeks 14-17 (@JAX, BAL, CAR, @TEN) average 5.7 projected. Stream them now, swap them out for December.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.9
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 14–17
    5.7
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  103. 103K2Eddy PineiroSF · Free WinHold9.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16
    2. Week 5: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    3. Week 6: expected 10.0, likely 6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.4
    4. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 9.8, likely 5.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.9
    7. Week 10: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.4
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.5
    9. Week 12: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.9
    10. Week 13: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.4
    11. Week 14: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    12. Week 15: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    13. Week 16: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    14. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    San Francisco's offense generates long drives, which is ideal kicker volume. 7.7 ppg so far is below what this offense should produce. Weeks 14-17 (LAR, @LAC, @KC, PHI) are tougher for the offense, a slight knock.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    +0.3
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  104. 104K3Jason MyersSEA · Ari's Astounding TeamHold9.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.6
    2. Week 5: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    3. Week 6: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–15
    4. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    5. Week 8: expected 9.6, likely 5.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.6
    6. Week 9: expected 10.0, likely 6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.2
    7. Week 10: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    10. Week 13: expected 9.8, likely 5.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.9
    11. Week 14: expected 9.8, likely 5.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.9
    12. Week 15: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    13. Week 16: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–16
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    7.7 ppg so far, 7-7-9, in a Seattle offense that has been disrupted by Darnold's glute injury. With Darnold back he should settle near 9. Playoff slate (NYG, @PHI, LAR, @CAR) is fine.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    +0.3
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  105. 105RB33J.K. DobbinsDEN · Marvins RoomHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.5, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–15.8
    2. Week 5: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.8
    3. Week 6: expected 7.1, likely 2.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15
    4. Week 7: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.3
    5. Week 8: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.1
    6. Week 9: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.4
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–17.9
    9. Week 12: expected 7.5, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 3.6–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19
    11. Week 14: expected 7.9, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.5
    12. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.9
    13. Week 16: expected 8.4, likely 3.4–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.6
    14. Week 17: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.1
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Dobbins is Denver's early-down back but barely catches passes, and he's at 4.5 ppg (3.6, 3.6, 6.3). A hip injury was a full-practice non-issue going into Week 4 (nbcsports.com). Without targets or efficiency he's a TD-or-bust bench back. We have him at 8, under ESPN's 10.7. Bye Week 10.

    Why not the projection (10.7) Nearly three points under ESPN because he's scored 4.5 ppg with no receiving role.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.5
    Above repl.
    +0.3
    Wks 14–17
    8.0
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  106. 106TE11Kenyon SadiqNYJ · Hanging with HernandezHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.6, likely 4.2–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.9
    2. Week 5: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20
    3. Week 6: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.8
    4. Week 7: expected 10.4, likely 4.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.5
    5. Week 8: expected 10.0, likely 4–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.6
    6. Week 9: expected 9.9, likely 4–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.4
    7. Week 10: expected 10.4, likely 4.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.5
    8. Week 11: expected 10.0, likely 4–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.6
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 4.1–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.4
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.8
    12. Week 15: expected 10.3, likely 4.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.2
    13. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20
    14. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The 16th overall pick broke out in Week 3 for 7-105-1 on eight targets when Mason Taylor (thumb) sat and his snap share jumped to 57% (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Taylor is week-to-week and Sadiq played through a back injury in Week 4 as the unquestioned Jets TE1 (nbcsports.com). The role shrinks when Taylor returns, so this is a near-replacement TE with rookie upside. Week 13 bye.

    Why not the projection (9.3) Raised to 10.0 from ESPN's 9.3 for a bigger role while Taylor is out, tempered by a time-share once he returns.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.2
    Wks 14–17
    9.8
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  107. 107WR42Dontayvion WicksPHI · Hanging with HernandezHold9.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.8, likely 4.3–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–25.8
    2. Week 5: expected 11.2, likely 4–17, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–24.3
    3. Week 6: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.2
    4. Week 7: expected 9.9, likely 3.6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.6
    5. Week 8: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21
    6. Week 9: expected 9.5, likely 3.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.7
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    9. Week 12: expected 9.8, likely 3.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.4
    10. Week 13: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    11. Week 14: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21
    12. Week 15: expected 9.0, likely 3.3–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    14. Week 17: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Wicks has turned 15 targets into 9-179-1 as Philadelphia's deep-threat WR2 (cbssports.com). DeVonta Smith's hamstring sidelines him for multiple games (no more than three expected, no IR), which makes Wicks the No. 1 receiver for now (profootballrumors.com). That boost is short-lived: ESPN's 11+ in Weeks 4-5 drops to about 9 when Smith returns. He's a usable bridge starter at a ~480 price.

    Why not the projection (9.3) A touch above ESPN's 9.3: he's outplayed Makai Lemon for the WR2 job and is the WR1 while Smith is out.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.1
    Above repl.
    +0.2
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  108. 108RB34RJ HarveyDEN · Abhinav's TeamHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.2, likely 3.8–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.6
    2. Week 5: expected 8.0, likely 4.2–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–15.1
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.3
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.8
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.9
    6. Week 9: expected 8.0, likely 4.2–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–15
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.3
    9. Week 12: expected 7.8, likely 4–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.6
    10. Week 13: expected 8.5, likely 4.4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 4.1–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.9
    12. Week 15: expected 8.0, likely 4.2–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–15
    13. Week 16: expected 8.3, likely 4.3–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.7
    14. Week 17: expected 7.8, likely 4–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Harvey is Denver's passing-down specialist. He missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and isn't the early-down back (profootballnetwork.com). In full PPR that's a fringe flex: 8 when healthy, not ESPN's 11.2. Bye Week 10.

    Why not the projection (11.2) Three points under ESPN because he's a receiving specialist behind Dobbins and only gets a couple of carries.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    +0.2
    Wks 14–17
    8.0
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  109. 109RB35Travis Etienne Jr.NO · Kirkland SignatureHold11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 11.6, likely 6–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–21.9
    7. Week 10: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.4
    8. Week 11: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.5
    9. Week 12: expected 11.2, likely 5.8–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–21
    10. Week 13: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.7
    11. Week 14: expected 11.4, likely 6–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.5
    12. Week 15: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.3
    13. Week 16: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.4
    14. Week 17: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.1
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A Week 3 hamstring injury put Etienne on IR, with no surgery needed, and the Saints' Week 8 bye makes Week 9 his earliest return, which matches ESPN's sheet (nbcsports.com). Before the injury he led New Orleans with 30 carries for 128 yards, about 4.3 a carry, at 10.3 PPG, and coach Kellen Moore has shown a willingness to give goal-line work to CJ Donaldson. A low-end RB2 for Weeks 9-17 and the playoff run, with the usual hamstring re-aggravation risk.

    Why not the projection (12.6) Trimmed under ESPN's 12.6 to match his actual 10.3 PPG plus some upside, given the shared goal-line work and an offense that has struggled.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    +0.2
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    9
    Kirkland Signature →
  110. 110QB16Sam DarnoldSEA · Marvins RoomHold16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.6, likely 10.9–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 6–27.3
    2. Week 5: expected 15.8, likely 10.4–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.1
    3. Week 6: expected 14.2, likely 9.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.4
    4. Week 7: expected 15.6, likely 10.3–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.7
    5. Week 8: expected 16.7, likely 11–22, 10th–90th percentile 6–27.5
    6. Week 9: expected 18.1, likely 12–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.9
    7. Week 10: expected 15.9, likely 10.5–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 15.0, likely 9.9–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.7
    10. Week 13: expected 17.6, likely 11.6–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–29
    11. Week 14: expected 17.0, likely 11.2–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–28.1
    12. Week 15: expected 15.0, likely 9.9–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.8
    13. Week 16: expected 15.0, likely 9.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.8
    14. Week 17: expected 16.0, likely 10.6–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A glute injury knocked him out five plays into Week 1 and cost him Week 2; he returned in Week 3 (profootballrumors.com) and scored 27.7. Healthy, he is a mid-QB2 who can spike with the Seattle passing game. Weeks 14-17 (NYG, @PHI, LAR, @CAR) are mostly playable.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    14.9
    Above repl.
    +0.1
    Wks 14–17
    15.8
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  111. 111DEF4Rams D/STLAR · Kirkland SignatureHold6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.5
    2. Week 5: expected 4.1, likely 0.6–7, 10th–90th percentile 0–11
    3. Week 6: expected 7.1, likely 1.1–12, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.8
    4. Week 7: expected 6.5, likely 1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.3
    5. Week 8: expected 7.5, likely 1.1–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.9
    6. Week 9: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.6
    7. Week 10: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.5
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.1
    10. Week 13: expected 5.0, likely 0.8–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.4
    11. Week 14: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.1
    12. Week 15: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.6
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.5
    14. Week 17: expected 7.9, likely 1.2–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–21
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    5.7 ppg in a volatile start (1, 11, 5). Weeks 14-17 (@SF, DAL, @SEA, @TB) is a gauntlet of good offenses. Replacement-level with a decent pass rush.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    +0.1
    Wks 14–17
    5.7
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  112. 112QB17Bo NixDEN · I have a dreamHold16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.9, likely 9.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.6
    2. Week 5: expected 16.0, likely 10.5–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.3
    3. Week 6: expected 14.2, likely 9.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.5
    4. Week 7: expected 17.6, likely 11.6–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.1
    5. Week 8: expected 15.5, likely 10.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.6
    6. Week 9: expected 16.1, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 16.8, likely 11.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–27.7
    9. Week 12: expected 14.3, likely 9.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.5
    10. Week 13: expected 18.5, likely 12.2–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.5
    11. Week 14: expected 15.5, likely 10.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–25.6
    12. Week 15: expected 15.9, likely 10.5–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.3
    13. Week 16: expected 17.7, likely 11.7–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–29.2
    14. Week 17: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–24
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    5.4 in Week 1, 24.1 in Week 3: Nix's rushing gives him spike weeks, but the passing efficiency is still middling. Denver's playoff schedule (@NYJ, @LV, BUF, @NE) is softer than most. He is a streamer exactly at replacement level.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    14.8
    Above repl.
    0.0
    Wks 14–17
    15.9
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  113. 113WR43Xavier WorthyKC · Ari's Astounding TeamBuy9.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.5
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    4. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.9
    5. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    6. Week 9: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21
    7. Week 10: expected 9.5, likely 3.4–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.6
    8. Week 11: expected 10.1, likely 3.7–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.9
    9. Week 12: expected 10.0, likely 3.6–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.2, likely 3.3–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20
    11. Week 14: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.9
    12. Week 15: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.3
    13. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 3.5–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.1
    14. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Worthy has been the No. 2 behind Rashee Rice, who drew 9 targets to Worthy's 2 in Week 3. But Rice pulled up with a left hamstring injury in Week 4 and was downgraded to doubtful (si.com). If Rice misses time, Worthy becomes Patrick Mahomes' top wideout heading into the Week 5 bye. At ~330 that's cheap, and the boom/bust profile is part of the price.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.9
    Above repl.
    0.0
    Wks 14–17
    9.5
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  114. 114K4Will ReichardMIN · Horus St. BrownHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.3
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–16
    5. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    6. Week 9: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–16
    7. Week 10: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    8. Week 11: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    9. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    11. Week 14: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    12. Week 15: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    14. Week 17: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    11.0 ppg with a 16-point Week 3, kicking indoors for a Vikings offense getting Kyler Murray back. A useful K with a dome edge, though the playoff weeks include @NE and @NYJ outdoors in December.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    0.0
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  115. 115RB36Jaylen WrightMIA · Hanging with HernandezHold7.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.8
    2. Week 5: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.4
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.5
    5. Week 8: expected 7.5, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–15.8
    6. Week 9: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.5
    7. Week 10: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.4
    8. Week 11: expected 7.6, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–15.9
    9. Week 12: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.2
    10. Week 13: expected 7.0, likely 2.8–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–14.8
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.8
    12. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.5
    13. Week 16: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.5
    14. Week 17: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    De'Von Achane's season-ending torn ACL (thebiglead.com) puts Wright, healthy again after a stinger and foot injury, in a committee with Ollie Gordon II; Jeremy Fowler reports Miami will share the load short term, with Wright as the big-play back and Gordon the every-down type (sports.yahoo.com). An 0-3 offense limits the touchdown upside. A volatile flex until one of them takes over the job.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.2
    Above repl.
    0.0
    Wks 14–17
    7.9
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  116. 116RB37Jordan MasonMIN · Marvins RoomHold9.2ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.1
    5. Week 8: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.6
    6. Week 9: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.4
    7. Week 10: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.4
    8. Week 11: expected 8.2, likely 4.3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.5
    9. Week 12: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.1
    11. Week 14: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.9
    12. Week 15: expected 9.9, likely 5.1–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–17.9
    14. Week 17: expected 8.7, likely 4.5–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Mason went on IR Sept. 16 with a small thumb fracture that Kevin O'Connell said has been fixed, and Minnesota's Week 6 bye makes him eligible for Week 7, which is right where ESPN starts him. He led the Week 1 win with 15 carries for 59 yards and a TD (vikings.com), but Aaron Jones is still on the roster, so this is an early-down and goal-line share, not a workhorse role. Useful RB3 depth for the second half, nothing more.

    Why not the projection (10.7) Under ESPN's 10.7 because Aaron Jones remains on the roster and Mason's Week 1 role was a 15-carry share, not a featured back's workload.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.2
    Above repl.
    0.0
    Wks 14–17
    9.1
    Games
    11
    Marvins Room →
  117. 117WR44Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · Hanging with HernandezHold9.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.5, likely 4.6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    2. Week 5: expected 9.1, likely 4.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.7
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 4.7–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.7
    4. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 4.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.7
    5. Week 8: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–18.2
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 9.5, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    8. Week 11: expected 9.9, likely 4.9–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.3
    9. Week 12: expected 9.3, likely 4.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–18.1
    10. Week 13: expected 9.9, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    11. Week 14: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.7
    12. Week 15: expected 9.8, likely 4.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–19
    13. Week 16: expected 9.3, likely 4.6–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–18
    14. Week 17: expected 9.1, likely 4.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Robinson comfortably led Tennessee in targets (11) and catches (7) in Week 3 and scored his first Titans TD (nbcsports.com). With Calvin Ridley pushed aside, he and rookie Carnell Tate are the two reliable targets, though Cam Ward's accuracy caps the upside. He's a PPR WR3/FLEX with a volume floor (8.8, 1.9, 18.7) at a ~460 price.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.8
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    9.6
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  118. 118K5Cam LittleJAX · Team Cash Money SquaHold8.9ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    3. Week 6: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–15
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.4
    6. Week 9: expected 8.6, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.9
    7. Week 10: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    9. Week 12: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    10. Week 13: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    11. Week 14: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    12. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    13. Week 16: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    14. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Jacksonville's offense is scoring TDs, not kicking: 12, 7, 4 so far. A steady, replacement-plus kicker with range. Playoff slate (PIT, @HOU, @DAL, WSH) is mixed.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    9.0
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  119. 119K6Evan McPhersonCIN · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    2. Week 5: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 8.6, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    5. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    6. Week 9: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.5
    7. Week 10: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    8. Week 11: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    9. Week 12: expected 9.4, likely 5.7–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.3
    10. Week 13: expected 8.6, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–15
    11. Week 14: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    12. Week 15: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    13. Week 16: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.5
    14. Week 17: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    14.0 ppg (19, 12, 11) leads this group, in a Burrow offense that has climbed every week. He will not hold that pace, but long-range attempts give him a ceiling. The playoff run (KC, @CAR, @IND, BAL) includes a dome game.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  120. 120K7Harrison ButkerKC · Abhinav's TeamHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    5. Week 8: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    6. Week 9: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16
    7. Week 10: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    8. Week 11: expected 9.7, likely 5.8–13, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.8
    9. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.6, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    11. Week 14: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    12. Week 15: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    13. Week 16: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    14. Week 17: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    9.3 ppg so far with a 16-point Week 2. Kansas City's offense keeps him in a good spot. The bye is Week 5; the playoff run (@CIN, NE, SF, @LAC) is fine.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    9.0
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  121. 121K8Spencer ShraderIND · Marvins RoomHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    2. Week 5: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    3. Week 6: expected 9.4, likely 5.7–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.3
    4. Week 7: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.3
    5. Week 8: expected 8.4, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    6. Week 9: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    7. Week 10: expected 9.7, likely 5.8–13, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.8
    8. Week 11: expected 8.4, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 8.6, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    12. Week 15: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–16
    14. Week 17: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    12.7 ppg (7, 14, 17) for an Indianapolis offense moving the ball well. The Week 13 bye is before the playoffs; Weeks 14-17 (@PHI, @TEN, CIN, @CLE) are a mix.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  122. 122K9Tyler LoopBAL · Kirkland SignatureHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.3
    2. Week 5: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    3. Week 6: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    4. Week 7: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.9
    5. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    6. Week 9: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    7. Week 10: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.5
    9. Week 12: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    12. Week 15: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.9
    14. Week 17: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    10.3 ppg (14, 5, 12) in a Ravens offense that scores often. Lamar's ankle is the risk to his volume. Week 13 bye, then TB, @PIT, CLE, @CIN for the playoffs.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  123. 123DEF5Ravens D/STBAL · Horus St. BrownHold5.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.5
    2. Week 5: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.1
    3. Week 6: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.2
    4. Week 7: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.2
    5. Week 8: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.7
    6. Week 9: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.5
    7. Week 10: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.8
    8. Week 11: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14
    9. Week 12: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.5
    12. Week 15: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.4
    13. Week 16: expected 8.2, likely 1.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.8
    14. Week 17: expected 5.0, likely 0.7–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Only 4.7 ppg so far, but the playoff schedule (TB, @PIT, CLE, @CIN) projects best among these units at 6.7 per game. A December hold more than an October start.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.4
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    6.7
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  124. 124DEF6Texans D/STHOU · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold5.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 4.7, likely 0.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.5
    2. Week 5: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.8
    3. Week 6: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    4. Week 7: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.5
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.8
    7. Week 10: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.5
    8. Week 11: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.6
    9. Week 12: expected 3.7, likely 0.6–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.8
    10. Week 13: expected 6.0, likely 0.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.1
    11. Week 14: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.2
    12. Week 15: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.3
    14. Week 17: expected 5.9, likely 0.9–10, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Drafted as a top D/ST, but has scored 4.3 ppg (-4, 7, 10) as an 0-3 team. The pass rush is real; the offense putting the defense on the field is the problem. Playoff slate (@WSH, JAX, @PHI, @GB) is not friendly.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.4
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    5.4
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  125. 125TE12Dalton SchultzHOU · Free WinHold9.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    2. Week 5: expected 9.4, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.3
    3. Week 6: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.6
    4. Week 7: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.6
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 3.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.4
    7. Week 10: expected 9.0, likely 3.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.7
    8. Week 11: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.1
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 3.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.8
    11. Week 14: expected 9.8, likely 3.9–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.1
    12. Week 15: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.7
    13. Week 16: expected 9.3, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.3
    14. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 3.9–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Leads Houston with 25 targets through three weeks, but 14 came in Week 2 (12-140) while Nico Collins was out; with Collins back in Week 3 he had three targets (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). That spread makes him a streamer, not a starter. Above ESPN's 8.0 on the volume, still about replacement level. Week 8 bye.

    Why not the projection (8.0) Raised to 9.5 from ESPN's 8.0 because he leads the team in targets, though most came without Collins.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.9
    Above repl.
    -0.2
    Wks 14–17
    9.6
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  126. 126WR45A.J. BrownNE · Hanging with HernandezSell13.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–24.5
    6. Week 9: expected 13.9, likely 6.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–26.9
    7. Week 10: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–25.4
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 13.4, likely 6.6–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–26
    10. Week 13: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–24.8
    11. Week 14: expected 12.5, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.2
    12. Week 15: expected 13.2, likely 6.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.6
    13. Week 16: expected 13.3, likely 6.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–25.8
    14. Week 17: expected 12.8, likely 6.3–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Brown has been on IR since a Week 1 high-ankle sprain and is eligible for Week 6. The Patriots 'hope' he's back then, but NFL Network called that aspirational after an initial 6-8 week estimate (nbcsports.com). When healthy he's Drake Maye's alpha (13-14 PPR) in a thin receiver room. Paying the ~2,840 market price means betting on a 29-year-old's ankle and getting maybe 10 games, so sell it to the market. We keep ESPN's Week 8 return as the base case; if he really makes Week 6, that's two bonus starts the board doesn't count.

    Why not the projection (13.9) Slightly below ESPN's 13.9 for a high-ankle sprain that may limit him in his first games back.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    -0.2
    Wks 14–17
    13.0
    Games
    9
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  127. 127RB38Keaton MitchellLAC · Ankit's Awesome TeamBuy7.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 4.9, likely 1.9–7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.2
    2. Week 5: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.2
    3. Week 6: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 7.2, likely 2.9–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.1
    6. Week 9: expected 7.6, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16
    7. Week 10: expected 7.6, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16
    8. Week 11: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.9
    9. Week 12: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.4
    10. Week 13: expected 7.6, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–15.9
    11. Week 14: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.5
    12. Week 15: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.2
    13. Week 16: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.5
    14. Week 17: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.1
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Mitchell's snaps went from 17 to 23-26 in Week 3, and he turned 8 carries into 52 yards plus a TD (13.7 points), while the Chargers coaches have shown they trust him and Vidal in high-leverage spots over Hampton (heavy.com). He's a big-play back, so the weekly range is wide, but at a FantasyCalc value of 192 he's the cheapest way to own the side of the LA backfield that's gaining work.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -0.2
    Wks 14–17
    7.9
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  128. 128RB39Rachaad WhiteWSH · Ari's Astounding TeamHold8.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 4.5, likely 0–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.9 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 8.2, likely 4.3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 8.5, likely 4.4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.9
    6. Week 9: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.3
    7. Week 10: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.6
    8. Week 11: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.6
    9. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 4.7–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–17.1
    10. Week 13: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.3, likely 4.3–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.6
    12. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 4.4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16
    13. Week 16: expected 7.7, likely 4–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.5
    14. Week 17: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    White missed every practice in Week 4 with a shoulder injury and was ruled out, and NBC calls him questionable for Week 5 (nbcsports.com). When healthy he had been Washington's most productive back (14.3 and 11.1 in Weeks 2-3), but the Austin Ekeler signing takes some of his third-down work. A flex when active, and a shoulder can linger.

    Why not the projection (7.7) Above ESPN's 7.7 because he scored 10.0 PPG with the role intact; Week 5 questionable for the shoulder.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -0.2
    Wks 14–17
    8.2
    Games
    11.5
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  129. 129RB40Woody MarksHOU · Kirkland SignatureHold7.6ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.2, likely 4.3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.5
    2. Week 5: expected 7.6, likely 4–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.3
    3. Week 6: expected 7.2, likely 3.7–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.4
    4. Week 7: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.3
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.1
    7. Week 10: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.1
    8. Week 11: expected 8.0, likely 4.2–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.1
    9. Week 12: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.1
    10. Week 13: expected 7.2, likely 3.7–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.5
    11. Week 14: expected 7.6, likely 4–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.4
    12. Week 15: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.7
    13. Week 16: expected 7.1, likely 3.7–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.4
    14. Week 17: expected 7.8, likely 4.1–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Marks and David Montgomery have split the Houston backfield almost exactly (78 to 81 snaps through two weeks), with Marks at about a 45% snap share, a 37% route share and some red-zone carries (fantasypros.com). That's a steady 7-8 points a week (5.0, 8.5, 9.1 so far), a replacement-level flex with a little standalone receiving value.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -0.2
    Wks 14–17
    7.5
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  130. 130K10Daniel CarlsonNO · Los Angeles LesbiansHold8.7ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    2. Week 5: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    3. Week 6: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–15
    4. Week 7: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.3
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    7. Week 10: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    8. Week 11: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    9. Week 12: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.5
    10. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    11. Week 14: expected 8.6, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    12. Week 15: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    13. Week 16: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    14. Week 17: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Volatile start (5, 13, 3) in a high-volume Saints passing offense. Shough's yardage creates chances, and the playoff slate (@CAR, @TB, ARI, @ATL) is soft and includes a dome game.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.1
    Above repl.
    -0.3
    Wks 14–17
    8.7
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  131. 131RB41Alvin KamaraNO · London BridgeSell7.4ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.7
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.6
    3. Week 6: expected 9.9, likely 5.1–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.6
    4. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 4.9–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.6
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.3
    7. Week 10: expected 6.7, likely 3.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.5
    8. Week 11: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.2
    9. Week 12: expected 6.4, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12
    10. Week 13: expected 6.8, likely 3.5–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.8
    11. Week 14: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.1
    12. Week 15: expected 6.1, likely 3.2–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.5
    13. Week 16: expected 7.0, likely 3.6–9.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.2
    14. Week 17: expected 6.1, likely 3.2–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Etienne's IR stint gives Kamara the lead-back window for Weeks 4-7 (ESPN ~10.5 a week), but the Saints are expected to split the work with Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson, and he has struggled to run efficiently this season (nbcsports.com). He's at 4.1 PPG so far, and from Week 9 on ESPN has him at about 7. Sell now, while the 'Kamara is the lead back again' headlines still move the price.

    Why not the projection (8.3) Below ESPN's 8.3 because his efficiency has fallen off (4.1 PPG through three weeks) and even the Etienne-less stretch is a committee.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    6.9
    Above repl.
    -0.3
    Wks 14–17
    6.4
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  132. 132QB18Jacoby BrissettARI · Team Cash Money SquaHold15.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.8, likely 10.5–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.1
    2. Week 5: expected 18.3, likely 12.1–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30.2
    3. Week 6: expected 13.7, likely 7.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.4
    4. Week 7: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.9
    5. Week 8: expected 16.4, likely 10.9–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–27.1
    6. Week 9: expected 13.0, likely 6.9–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–25.1
    7. Week 10: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–24
    8. Week 11: expected 14.2, likely 9.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.5
    9. Week 12: expected 17.4, likely 11.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–28.7
    10. Week 13: expected 15.4, likely 10.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–25.3
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 15.9, likely 10.5–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.2
    13. Week 16: expected 16.2, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.7
    14. Week 17: expected 16.3, likely 10.8–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–26.9
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Cardinals starter, cleared from a hip issue before Week 3 (nbcsports.com), then threw 52 times against San Francisco for 25.6. Arizona's bad defense guarantees volume, but NBC notes he could be a midseason trade candidate and Carson Beck is behind him, so the job is not secure. The Week 14 bye hurts.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    14.4
    Above repl.
    -0.4
    Wks 14–17
    12.1
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  133. 133TE13Mark AndrewsBAL · Ari's Astounding TeamSell9.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.7
    2. Week 5: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.2
    3. Week 6: expected 9.1, likely 4.7–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.9
    4. Week 7: expected 9.5, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–17.6
    5. Week 8: expected 9.8, likely 5.1–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–18.2
    6. Week 9: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2–17.7
    7. Week 10: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.2
    9. Week 12: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.1
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.9
    12. Week 15: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.1
    13. Week 16: expected 9.1, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–17.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Isaiah Likely's departure was supposed to open things up, yet Andrews has 8.9, 10.9 and 5.4 points with just one red-zone target in three weeks (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He hurt his hand in Week 3, playing 47% of snaps and running 13 routes; he practiced fully for Week 4 (nbcsports.com). At 9.3 PPG he is a replacement-level tight end; Hockenson on waivers gives you about the same. Week 13 bye.

    Why not the projection (10.4) Cut from ESPN's 10.4 to 9.3 because his actual 8.4 PPG and lack of red-zone looks do not support a TE1 projection.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    -0.4
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  134. 134K11Ka'imi FairbairnHOU · London BridgeHold8.6ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    2. Week 5: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    3. Week 6: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    4. Week 7: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    7. Week 10: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    9. Week 12: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–15
    10. Week 13: expected 8.0, likely 4.8–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.8
    11. Week 14: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    12. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    13. Week 16: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.2
    14. Week 17: expected 8.6, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.9
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Houston is 0-3 with a struggling offense (10 sacks allowed, no Nico Collins: cbssports.com), so fewer field-goal tries: 9, 6, 5 so far. He is accurate enough that the volume, not the leg, is the problem. Playoff slate (@WSH, JAX, @PHI, @GB) has no dome bonus.

    Why not the projection (9.4) Below ESPN's 9.4 because the Texans' offense is not reaching field-goal range often.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.0
    Above repl.
    -0.4
    Wks 14–17
    8.5
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  135. 135DEF7Broncos D/STDEN · I have a dreamHold5.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.4
    2. Week 5: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.2
    3. Week 6: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    4. Week 7: expected 5.7, likely 0.9–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.2
    5. Week 8: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.2
    6. Week 9: expected 5.6, likely 0.8–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 6.4, likely 1–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–17
    9. Week 12: expected 6.4, likely 1–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–17
    10. Week 13: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.7
    11. Week 14: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.7
    12. Week 15: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6
    13. Week 16: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.6
    14. Week 17: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    6.7 ppg (2, 9, 9), steady if unspectacular. Playoff slate (@NYJ, @LV, BUF, @NE) gives them two soft offenses in Weeks 14-15.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.1
    Above repl.
    -0.4
    Wks 14–17
    5.8
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  136. 136TE14Dallas GoedertPHI · Horus St. BrownHold10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 5.3, likely 0–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.7 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 10.3, likely 4.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.3
    4. Week 7: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.7
    5. Week 8: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    6. Week 9: expected 10.5, likely 4.2–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 4.1–15, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21
    9. Week 12: expected 10.9, likely 4.4–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.5
    10. Week 13: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    11. Week 14: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    12. Week 15: expected 10.1, likely 4–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.8
    13. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 4.1–15, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21
    14. Week 17: expected 10.4, likely 4.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.5
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Sprained his MCL in Week 2 and was ruled out for Week 4, his second straight absence, after not practicing all week; the original timeline was 'a few weeks' (nbcsports.com). Week 5 is a coin flip, so we score it at half. When healthy he scored 23.7 on two touchdowns in Week 1, but Philadelphia's passing game is sputtering and rookie Eli Stowers is on the roster (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Even healthy, he barely beats the waiver wire. Stash him only if you have the bench spot. Week 10 bye.

    Why not the projection (11.0) Week 5 marked questionable because he had not practiced since the Week 2 MCL sprain as of Week 4's final report.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.6
    Above repl.
    -0.5
    Wks 14–17
    10.4
    Games
    11.5
    Horus St. Brown →
  137. 137WR46Jameson WilliamsDET · Team Cash Money SquaSell9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 3.2–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.5
    2. Week 5: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.4
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.4
    5. Week 8: expected 8.5, likely 3.1–13, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.5
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.5
    7. Week 10: expected 8.8, likely 3.2–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.1
    8. Week 11: expected 8.9, likely 3.2–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.3
    9. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.9, likely 3.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.4
    11. Week 14: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.9
    12. Week 15: expected 8.4, likely 3–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.2
    13. Week 16: expected 9.2, likely 3.3–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.1
    14. Week 17: expected 9.0, likely 3.3–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.6
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Williams hasn't topped four catches in a game: a 12.5% target share in Week 3 trailed both Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown (8 each), and NBC says he's 'tumbling back into the WR3 ranks' (nbcsports.com). Without a big target share he needs long TDs, and he scored 8.5, 5.3 and 8.9 without any. Sell to anyone still paying for the 2024 breakout at ~960.

    Why not the projection (10.4) Below ESPN's 10.4: a 12.5% target share in Detroit's offense makes him a TD-or-bust WR4 until the usage changes.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    -0.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  138. 138WR47Tre TuckerLV · London BridgeHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 3.5–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.8
    2. Week 5: expected 9.0, likely 3.3–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.6
    3. Week 6: expected 10.0, likely 3.6–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–21.7
    4. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 3.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–19.8
    5. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 3.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.3
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 3.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20.4
    7. Week 10: expected 8.4, likely 3.1–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.3
    8. Week 11: expected 8.2, likely 3–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.9
    9. Week 12: expected 8.5, likely 3.1–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 8.9, likely 3.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.4
    12. Week 15: expected 8.4, likely 3–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.2
    13. Week 16: expected 8.9, likely 3.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–19.4
    14. Week 17: expected 9.2, likely 3.3–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–20
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Tucker is a 57% snap player (40 of 70 in Week 3), and Brock Bowers takes the volume (13 targets that day) (cbssports.com). He's turned 15 targets into 11-189-1, and one 22.9-point spike accounts for most of his 12.0 PPG. Expect 8-9 points with occasional big games. Speculative FLEX at a ~260 price.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    -0.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  139. 139K12Cairo SantosCHI · Hanging with HernandezHold8.4ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    2. Week 5: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    3. Week 6: expected 8.1, likely 4.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.1
    4. Week 7: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.3
    5. Week 8: expected 7.6, likely 4.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–13.1
    6. Week 9: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    9. Week 12: expected 8.6, likely 5.2–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.9
    10. Week 13: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    12. Week 15: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    13. Week 16: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    14. Week 17: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    8.7 ppg in a Bears offense running through backup QBs until Caleb Williams returns around Week 6. Replacement-level until then. The playoff slate (@MIA, @BUF, GB, DET) has two December games in Chicago and one in Buffalo.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.8
    Above repl.
    -0.6
    Wks 14–17
    8.7
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  140. 140DEF8Chiefs D/STKC · I have a dreamHold5.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.5, likely 1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.3
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.5
    4. Week 7: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.9
    5. Week 8: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.2
    6. Week 9: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6
    7. Week 10: expected 3.9, likely 0.6–6.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.4
    8. Week 11: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.1
    9. Week 12: expected 3.4, likely 0.5–5.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.1
    10. Week 13: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.6
    11. Week 14: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.6
    12. Week 15: expected 7.0, likely 1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6
    13. Week 16: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.8
    14. Week 17: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    7.3 ppg led by a 14-point Week 1. The bye is Week 5; the playoff run (@CIN, NE, SF, @LAC) is mixed. Matchup play.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.9
    Above repl.
    -0.6
    Wks 14–17
    5.5
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  141. 141DEF9Patriots D/STNE · London BridgeSell5.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 2.8, likely 0.4–4.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.5
    2. Week 5: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.9
    3. Week 6: expected 6.5, likely 1–11, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.2
    4. Week 7: expected 4.3, likely 0.6–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.4
    5. Week 8: expected 6.9, likely 1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.4
    6. Week 9: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.7
    7. Week 10: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.9
    10. Week 13: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.5
    11. Week 14: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.4
    12. Week 15: expected 3.4, likely 0.5–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.9
    13. Week 16: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.2
    14. Week 17: expected 5.7, likely 0.9–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    9.0 ppg is inflated by a 20-point Week 2; a zero followed in Week 3 as Jacksonville scored 35 in a blowout. Weeks 14-17 (MIN, @KC, @NYJ, DEN) average 5.4 projected. Sell the early number.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.9
    Above repl.
    -0.6
    Wks 14–17
    5.4
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  142. 142QB19Caleb WilliamsCHI · Free WinHold18.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 16.9, likely 9.7–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.7
    4. Week 7: expected 16.9, likely 9.7–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.6
    5. Week 8: expected 15.0, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 3–27.2
    6. Week 9: expected 17.2, likely 9.9–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–31.2
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 18.9, likely 10.9–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–34.2
    9. Week 12: expected 19.3, likely 11.1–27, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–34.9
    10. Week 13: expected 17.0, likely 9.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.9
    11. Week 14: expected 18.9, likely 10.8–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–34.2
    12. Week 15: expected 18.3, likely 10.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–33.2
    13. Week 16: expected 19.0, likely 10.9–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–34.5
    14. Week 17: expected 20.0, likely 14–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 9–29.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Grade 2 hamstring from a non-contact injury in Week 2, with a 3-4 week timeline; he did not practice before Week 4 (espn.com). NBC calls Week 5 at Green Bay murky but possible (nbcsports.com), so ESPN's Week 6 return at Atlanta is the right base case, with some upside to come back early. When healthy he posted 37.3 in Week 1, and ESPN projects him at 18.8 ppg for Weeks 14-17. Base tier is 7 because of the two missed weeks; moved up one for that playoff ceiling.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    14.1
    Above repl.
    -0.7
    Wks 14–17
    19.1
    Games
    11
    Free Win →
  143. 143TE15Isaiah LikelyNYG · Hanging with HernandezSell9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.6
    2. Week 5: expected 9.4, likely 3.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.4
    3. Week 6: expected 9.4, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.3
    4. Week 7: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.1
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.2
    7. Week 10: expected 9.3, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.2
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 3.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.6
    9. Week 12: expected 9.2, likely 3.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.9
    10. Week 13: expected 9.0, likely 3.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.6
    11. Week 14: expected 8.4, likely 3.4–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.4
    12. Week 15: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.9
    13. Week 16: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.7
    14. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 3.8–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    His 27.8-point Week 1 came with Jaxson Dart, who is now out for the regular season after MCL/PCL/meniscus surgery (nbcnewyork.com). With Jameis Winston he has 8.3 and 3.3 points, including 2 catches on 5 targets in Week 3, and his snap share has run 49-69% (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). ESPN's 13.1 is still pricing in the Dart version of this offense. At 9.0 he is roughly the same player as T.J. Hockenson on waivers, before counting a Week 8 bye.

    Why not the projection (13.1) Cut from ESPN's 13.1 to 9.0 because Dart's season-ending knee injury left him with Winston, with whom he has averaged 5.8 PPR points.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    -0.7
    Wks 14–17
    9.0
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  144. 144WR48Devaughn VeleNO · Abhinav's TeamHold8.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.3, likely 6–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–23.9
    2. Week 5: expected 11.4, likely 5.6–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–22.2
    3. Week 6: expected 12.4, likely 6.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–24.1
    4. Week 7: expected 11.9, likely 5.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23.1
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    7. Week 10: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.3
    8. Week 11: expected 7.3, likely 3.6–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.2
    9. Week 12: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.3
    10. Week 13: expected 7.7, likely 3.8–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    11. Week 14: expected 7.2, likely 3.6–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14.1
    12. Week 15: expected 7.1, likely 3.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.7
    13. Week 16: expected 7.8, likely 3.8–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.1
    14. Week 17: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Vele is New Orleans' clear No. 2 receiver with 22 targets, 15 catches, 172 yards and a TD through three games (nbcsports.com). ESPN's shape is right: about 10-11 a week until Jordyn Tyson returns (Week 9 most likely), then about 6 as the WR3. We scale him up for the role he's earned, but his playoff value depends on how healthy Tyson is.

    Why not the projection (7.6) Above ESPN's 7.6 average because his 12.7 actual PPG on 7 targets a game says the pre-Tyson projection is too low; ESPN's post-Week 9 drop is kept.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.2
    Above repl.
    -0.7
    Wks 14–17
    7.3
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  145. 145DEF10Bears D/STCHI · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold5.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–18
    2. Week 5: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    3. Week 6: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.5
    4. Week 7: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.2
    5. Week 8: expected 4.4, likely 0.7–7.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.8
    6. Week 9: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.2
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.1
    9. Week 12: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.6
    10. Week 13: expected 4.3, likely 0.6–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.4
    11. Week 14: expected 7.2, likely 1.1–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.1
    12. Week 15: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.9, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.6
    14. Week 17: expected 3.5, likely 0.5–6, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    7.7 ppg, capped by 13 against Philadelphia in a 27-7 Week 3 win. Playoff slate (@MIA, @BUF, GB, DET) is the toughest of any D/ST here. Ride the early matchups, then drop.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.7
    Above repl.
    -0.8
    Wks 14–17
    5.0
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  146. 146DEF11Commanders D/STWSH · London BridgeHold5.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 5.9, likely 0.9–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.7
    2. Week 5: expected 7.0, likely 1.1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.7
    3. Week 6: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.7
    6. Week 9: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.1
    7. Week 10: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.1
    8. Week 11: expected 4.5, likely 0.7–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.1
    9. Week 12: expected 5.8, likely 0.9–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.4
    10. Week 13: expected 5.6, likely 0.8–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.8
    11. Week 14: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.5
    12. Week 15: expected 3.7, likely 0.6–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.9
    13. Week 16: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.2
    14. Week 17: expected 4.1, likely 0.6–6.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.8
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    3.3 ppg so far, and the offense was down to rookie Athan Kaliakmanis in Week 4 until Daniels returns. Playoff slate (HOU, ATL, @MIN, @JAX) is decent, but this is a streamer.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.7
    Above repl.
    -0.8
    Wks 14–17
    4.5
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  147. 147RB42Blake CorumLAR · Team Cash Money SquaHold6.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.7, likely 3.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.6
    2. Week 5: expected 7.0, likely 3.6–9.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.2
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.2
    4. Week 7: expected 6.8, likely 3.5–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.7
    5. Week 8: expected 7.0, likely 3.7–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.2
    6. Week 9: expected 6.8, likely 3.6–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.9
    7. Week 10: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.6
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.8
    10. Week 13: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.2
    11. Week 14: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.7
    12. Week 15: expected 7.2, likely 3.7–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.5
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 3–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–11
    14. Week 17: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.2
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Corum split carries evenly with Kyren Williams in Weeks 1-2, then fell behind in Week 3 with 6 carries for 15 yards and two catches for no gain, while Williams played 71% of snaps (heavy.com). The Rams want to limit Williams' workload, so Corum keeps a role, but 6.4 PPG is what that role has produced. Hold him as the handcuff to a back the Rams are trying to keep fresh for January.

    Why not the projection (8.2) Below ESPN's 8.2 to match his 6.4 PPG actual and a shrinking Week 3 share.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    6.3
    Above repl.
    -0.9
    Wks 14–17
    6.4
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  148. 148DEF12Browns D/STCLE · Ari's Astounding TeamSell5.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.2
    2. Week 5: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.6
    3. Week 6: expected 2.8, likely 0.4–4.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.4
    4. Week 7: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.3
    5. Week 8: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 0.7–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.6
    7. Week 10: expected 5.2, likely 0.8–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.7
    10. Week 13: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.3
    11. Week 14: expected 3.7, likely 0.6–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–10
    12. Week 15: expected 7.3, likely 1.1–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.4
    13. Week 16: expected 2.5, likely 0.4–4.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–6.6
    14. Week 17: expected 6.0, likely 0.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–16
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    2.7 ppg (-1, 5, 4) despite a defense with a strong reputation. Weeks 14-17 (ATL, @NYG, @BAL, IND) include a Week 16 trip to Baltimore that projects 2.7. Streamable only in specific matchups.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.6
    Above repl.
    -0.9
    Wks 14–17
    4.9
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  149. 149K13Cameron DickerLAC · Ankit's Awesome TeamSell8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.5, likely 4.5–10, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–12.9
    2. Week 5: expected 8.0, likely 4.8–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.8
    3. Week 6: expected 7.7, likely 4.6–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–13.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 7.7, likely 4.6–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–13.3
    6. Week 9: expected 8.1, likely 4.8–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–14
    7. Week 10: expected 7.8, likely 4.7–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.6
    8. Week 11: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    9. Week 12: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.1
    10. Week 13: expected 7.8, likely 4.7–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.6
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 4.8–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.9
    12. Week 15: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.1
    13. Week 16: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    14. Week 17: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.1
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    4.0 ppg (2, 1, 9) is what an 0-3 Chargers offense that stalls on penalties and drops looks like (nbcsports.com). The leg is elite, the opportunities are not. Playoff slate includes SF and KC.

    Why not the projection (8.6) Below ESPN's 8.6 because the Chargers' offense is not reaching scoring range.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.0
    Wks 14–17
    8.2
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  150. 150DEF13Bills D/STBUF · Free WinHold4.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.6
    2. Week 5: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.4
    3. Week 6: expected 5.0, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.2
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 3.0, likely 0.4–5, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.9
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 0.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.5
    7. Week 10: expected 5.4, likely 0.8–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.4
    8. Week 11: expected 6.6, likely 1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.5
    9. Week 12: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.9
    10. Week 13: expected 5.3, likely 0.8–9, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.1
    11. Week 14: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.2
    12. Week 15: expected 3.9, likely 0.6–6.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.3
    13. Week 16: expected 4.5, likely 0.7–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.9
    14. Week 17: expected 6.7, likely 1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.9
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    4.0 ppg (5, 2, 5) with no sack or turnover spikes yet. Week 15 vs Chicago is the one useful playoff matchup; @GB, @DEN, @MIA otherwise.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    4.5
    Above repl.
    -1.0
    Wks 14–17
    4.9
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  151. 151RB43Braelon AllenNYJ · Los Angeles LesbiansHold6.6ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.7
    2. Week 5: expected 6.3, likely 3.3–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–11.9
    3. Week 6: expected 5.8, likely 3–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.9
    4. Week 7: expected 6.8, likely 3.5–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.8
    5. Week 8: expected 6.4, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12
    6. Week 9: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.6
    7. Week 10: expected 6.4, likely 3.3–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.1
    8. Week 11: expected 6.1, likely 3.2–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.5
    9. Week 12: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.3
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 5.9, likely 3.1–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.2
    12. Week 15: expected 6.6, likely 3.4–9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.4
    13. Week 16: expected 6.1, likely 3.2–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.5
    14. Week 17: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.5
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Breece Hall's quad injury, which Rapoport said brought good MRI news (nbcsports.com), made Allen the lead back while Hall sits. ESPN assumes Hall is back in Week 5, after which Allen returns to the 19-carries-in-three-games backup role, with Isaiah Davis also around. If Hall misses more time Allen is a short-term RB2, but the projection can't show that, so treat him as a handcuff.

    Why not the projection (7.3) Slightly under ESPN because his behind-Hall role produced 5.7 PPG and most of his remaining weeks are in that role.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.1
    Above repl.
    -1.1
    Wks 14–17
    6.1
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  152. 152DEF14Eagles D/STPHI · Hanging with HernandezHold4.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.1
    2. Week 5: expected 3.9, likely 0.6–6.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.4
    3. Week 6: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.2
    4. Week 7: expected 3.5, likely 0.5–6, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.3
    5. Week 8: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.2
    6. Week 9: expected 7.4, likely 1.1–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 5.7, likely 0.9–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.1
    9. Week 12: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.6
    10. Week 13: expected 5.6, likely 0.8–9.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.9
    11. Week 14: expected 6.2, likely 0.9–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.6
    12. Week 15: expected 4.6, likely 0.7–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.4
    13. Week 16: expected 5.9, likely 0.9–10, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.7
    14. Week 17: expected 2.8, likely 0.4–4.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    2.7 ppg (5, 4, -1), and an offense that held the ball for about 23 minutes in Week 3 keeps them on the field. Playoff slate (IND, SEA, HOU, @SF) is unfriendly. Below waiver level for now.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    4.4
    Above repl.
    -1.1
    Wks 14–17
    4.9
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  153. 153TE16Colston LovelandCHI · I have a dreamSell8.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.8
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.2
    3. Week 6: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.1
    4. Week 7: expected 8.2, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.9
    5. Week 8: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.6
    6. Week 9: expected 8.2, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.9
    9. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 3.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.6
    10. Week 13: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.6
    11. Week 14: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.2
    12. Week 15: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18
    13. Week 16: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.1, likely 3.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    5 catches in three games despite 86%+ snap shares, and Caleb Williams' hamstring has already cost him Weeks 3 and 4, with Tyson Bagent expected to start (fantasyfootballcalculator.com, nbcsports.com). Week 3's four catches and a near-touchdown show a pulse, and Williams' return (possibly Week 5) is the path to ESPN's 10.0 PPG over Weeks 14-17. For now he is below replacement, and the market still pays sophomore-breakout prices. Week 10 bye.

    Why not the projection (9.6) Cut to 8.5 from ESPN's 9.6 because he has 2.8 actual PPG and more backup-QB weeks ahead.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.9
    Above repl.
    -1.2
    Wks 14–17
    8.8
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  154. 154TE17Jake FergusonDAL · Kirkland SignatureHold8.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.8
    2. Week 5: expected 8.2, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.9
    3. Week 6: expected 8.6, likely 3.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.8
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 3.3–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.2
    5. Week 8: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.1
    6. Week 9: expected 8.6, likely 3.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.8
    7. Week 10: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 8.4, likely 3.4–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.4
    9. Week 12: expected 8.4, likely 3.4–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.4
    10. Week 13: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.6
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.7
    13. Week 16: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.6
    14. Week 17: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Three touchdowns on just 11 targets and 9 catches for 72 yards: pure touchdown variance behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He caught 82 passes in 2025, so the role can grow, but 3.7 targets a game will not support the 10.7 actual PPG. Below replacement, plus a Week 14 bye in the playoffs. A bye-week streamer only.

    Why not the projection (7.2) Raised to 8.5 from ESPN's 7.2 for his red-zone role, but well below his 10.7 actual because three TDs on 11 targets will not repeat.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.9
    Above repl.
    -1.2
    Wks 14–17
    6.3
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  155. 155QB20C.J. StroudHOU · Free WinHold14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.2, likely 10.7–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.7
    2. Week 5: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–24
    3. Week 6: expected 13.6, likely 7.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.3
    4. Week 7: expected 15.4, likely 10.2–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–25.4
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 14.4, likely 9.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.7
    7. Week 10: expected 13.8, likely 7.3–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.6
    8. Week 11: expected 15.7, likely 10.4–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–25.9
    9. Week 12: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–24
    10. Week 13: expected 12.9, likely 6.8–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–24.9
    11. Week 14: expected 15.3, likely 10.1–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–25.2
    12. Week 15: expected 14.0, likely 9.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 5–23.1
    13. Week 16: expected 13.5, likely 7.2–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 3–26
    14. Week 17: expected 15.1, likely 10–20, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Houston is 0-3, Stroud has been sacked 10 times, and without Nico Collins (hamstring) he managed 167 yards in Week 3 (cbssports.com). 15.1 ppg with a broken line and no WR1 is below the waiver wire. Collins' return is the only path to a bounce, and the playoff schedule (@WSH, JAX, @PHI, @GB) offers little help.

    Why not the projection (15.1) Below ESPN's 15.1: no Collins, 10 sacks in three games and an 0-3 team make the projection look generous.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    -1.3
    Wks 14–17
    14.5
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  156. 156QB21Drake MayeNE · Kirkland SignatureSell14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 15.0, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 3–27.2
    2. Week 5: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–27
    3. Week 6: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.4
    4. Week 7: expected 14.3, likely 8.2–20, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–25.8
    5. Week 8: expected 15.5, likely 8.9–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–28.1
    6. Week 9: expected 15.7, likely 9–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–28.4
    7. Week 10: expected 16.2, likely 9.3–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–29.3
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.7
    10. Week 13: expected 15.7, likely 9–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–28.4
    11. Week 14: expected 12.8, likely 5.3–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–27.6
    12. Week 15: expected 13.1, likely 5.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–28.4
    13. Week 16: expected 13.8, likely 5.7–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–29.9
    14. Week 17: expected 13.4, likely 5.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–28.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    7.2 ppg and seven turnovers through three weeks, the most by a Patriot that early in 30 years, and New England pulled him for Tommy DeVito in the 35-6 loss to Jacksonville (fantasynerds.com). He is not running enough to save weeks like 2025. The playoff slate (MIN, @KC, @NYJ, DEN) is brutal. Below the waiver wire until he proves otherwise, and a hook for DeVito is now on the table.

    Why not the projection (16.9) ESPN's 16.9 assumes the 2025 version; three games of turnover-driven duds and a mid-game benching justify 14.5.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    -1.3
    Wks 14–17
    13.3
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  157. 157WR49Khalil ShakirBUF · Los Angeles LesbiansHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.5
    2. Week 5: expected 7.9, likely 3.8–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.2
    3. Week 6: expected 8.1, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.9
    6. Week 9: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.7
    7. Week 10: expected 8.1, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    8. Week 11: expected 8.4, likely 4.1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.3
    9. Week 12: expected 8.1, likely 4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.7
    10. Week 13: expected 7.8, likely 3.8–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.3, likely 4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–16
    12. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.7
    13. Week 16: expected 7.7, likely 3.8–11, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15
    14. Week 17: expected 8.4, likely 4.1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Shakir's role is secure (72.6% of snaps, second among Bills WRs in routes in Week 3), but it produced 1 catch for 6 yards on 3 targets (nbcsports.com). Buffalo spreads the ball around, which makes him a low-aDOT PPR filler: 9.0, 6.8, 1.6 so far. Desperation FLEX only. At a ~190 price there's nothing to sell.

    Why not the projection (9.8) Below ESPN's 9.8: 5.8 actual PPG, and his snap share isn't turning into targets.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.5
    Above repl.
    -1.4
    Wks 14–17
    8.1
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  158. 158WR50Courtland SuttonDEN · Horus St. BrownHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.3, likely 4.1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.2
    2. Week 5: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    4. Week 7: expected 8.3, likely 4.1–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.2
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    6. Week 9: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.2
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    9. Week 12: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.5, likely 4.2–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.5
    11. Week 14: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.3
    12. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    13. Week 16: expected 8.4, likely 4.1–12, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.4
    14. Week 17: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Sutton tied for the team lead with 7 targets and led Denver with 46 yards in Week 3, and NBC still had him 'off the FLEX radar' because the passing game is stuck in neutral (nbcsports.com). With Waddle there he's the No. 2 option, and 5.4 PPG with 3.1/5.5/7.6 is a long way from ESPN's 10. Red-zone size gives him some TD equity, but he's a bye-week fill-in.

    Why not the projection (10.1) Cut from ESPN's 10.1: 5.4 actual PPG as the WR2 behind Waddle in a passing game that isn't producing.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.0
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  159. 159WR51KC ConcepcionCLE · Hanging with HernandezSell8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    2. Week 5: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    3. Week 6: expected 8.1, likely 4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.8
    4. Week 7: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    5. Week 8: expected 7.6, likely 3.7–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.8
    6. Week 9: expected 8.3, likely 4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–16
    7. Week 10: expected 7.8, likely 3.8–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.9
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 3.9–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.6
    12. Week 15: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.8
    13. Week 16: expected 7.9, likely 3.9–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.4
    14. Week 17: expected 8.5, likely 4.2–12, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie gets volume but nothing else: 20 targets for 80 yards (4.0 per catch) through three games, including 2 catches for 9 yards on a team-high 9 targets in Week 3 (nbcsports.com). Cleveland uses him underneath behind Deshaun Watson, so there's no big-play upside, and NBC ranks him outside the WR4s. The target share keeps him rosterable, but ESPN's 10.5 assumes efficiency he hasn't shown.

    Why not the projection (10.5) Well below ESPN's 10.5: 6.3 PPG on 20 targets, 4.0 yards per catch, and a QB who isn't improving.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.2
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  160. 160WR52Roman WilsonPIT · Free WinHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.2, likely 3–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.9
    2. Week 5: expected 8.5, likely 3.1–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.4
    3. Week 6: expected 7.7, likely 2.8–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–16.8
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 3–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–18.2
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 2.9–12, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.1
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 8.0, likely 2.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 7.9, likely 2.9–12, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.2
    9. Week 12: expected 7.6, likely 2.8–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–16.6
    10. Week 13: expected 7.8, likely 2.8–12, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.1
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 2.9–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.3
    12. Week 15: expected 8.2, likely 3–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.8
    13. Week 16: expected 8.1, likely 2.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.6
    14. Week 17: expected 8.0, likely 2.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–17.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Wilson led Pittsburgh with 6 targets and scored a 38-yard TD in Week 3 (fantasypros.com), but his snap share fell to about 39% with Michael Pittman back. He's the third receiver behind DK Metcalf and Pittman in an Aaron Rodgers offense ranked last in EPA per pass (si.com). Waiver-level value that becomes interesting only if Pittman's plantar fascia flares again.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.5
    Wks 14–17
    8.1
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  161. 161RB44Rico DowdlePIT · Team Cash Money SquaHold7.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 3.8, likely 0–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.5 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 6.7, likely 3.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.6
    4. Week 7: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–10, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–13.8
    5. Week 8: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.7
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 6.9, likely 3.6–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–13
    8. Week 11: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.3
    9. Week 12: expected 6.9, likely 3.6–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.9
    10. Week 13: expected 6.7, likely 3.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.6
    11. Week 14: expected 6.4, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.1
    12. Week 15: expected 6.9, likely 3.6–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–13
    13. Week 16: expected 7.4, likely 3.9–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14
    14. Week 17: expected 7.1, likely 3.7–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.3
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A toe injury from Week 2 has kept Dowdle out of Weeks 3-4, and Ian Rapoport says there's a pretty good chance he plays Week 5 against Indianapolis after the mini-bye (nbcsports.com). The problem is Jaylen Warren, who ran 17 times for 127 yards and caught 3 passes for 49 in Week 3 and has been a true workhorse since. Dowdle comes back to a committee he may not lead, so his 3.5 PPG actual is closer to the truth than ESPN's 8.2.

    Why not the projection (8.2) Below ESPN because Warren has taken over the lead role during Dowdle's absence; Week 5 questionable for the toe.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.7
    Above repl.
    -1.5
    Wks 14–17
    7.0
    Games
    11.5
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  162. 162WR53Keenan AllenIND · I have a dreamHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 5.0, likely 0–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.9 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 10.2, likely 5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.9
    4. Week 7: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.3
    5. Week 8: expected 8.6, likely 4.2–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.8
    6. Week 9: expected 9.1, likely 4.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.7
    7. Week 10: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 8.3, likely 4.1–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.2
    9. Week 12: expected 8.7, likely 4.2–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.8
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 8.5, likely 4.2–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.5
    12. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 4.2–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–16.6
    13. Week 16: expected 8.7, likely 4.3–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.8
    14. Week 17: expected 8.3, likely 4.1–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–16
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Allen (groin) was limited all week and ruled out for Week 4 against Washington; no longer-term timeline has been reported (nbcsports.com). At 34, a soft-tissue injury could linger, so Week 5 is questionable. When active he's a short-area target behind Josh Downs, with 9.2, 1.5 and 18.3 so far. Bench depth.

    Why not the projection (9.1) Level near ESPN; Week 5 marked questionable because a groin injury at 34 tends to linger past one missed game.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.3
    Above repl.
    -1.6
    Wks 14–17
    8.5
    Games
    11.5
    I have a dream →
  163. 163RB45Brian Robinson Jr.ATL · I have a dreamHold6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.2, likely 2.5–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.9
    2. Week 5: expected 5.9, likely 2.4–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.3
    3. Week 6: expected 6.4, likely 2.6–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–13.5
    4. Week 7: expected 5.7, likely 2.3–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12
    5. Week 8: expected 5.6, likely 2.3–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–11.8
    6. Week 9: expected 6.1, likely 2.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.7
    7. Week 10: expected 5.7, likely 2.3–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 5.1, likely 2–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.7
    10. Week 13: expected 6.6, likely 2.7–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–13.9
    11. Week 14: expected 5.9, likely 2.4–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.5
    12. Week 15: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.7
    13. Week 16: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.5
    14. Week 17: expected 6.5, likely 2.6–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–13.6
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The Week 3 11.0 came on 10 carries and a 7-yard TD after Bijan Robinson had already taken 29 carries in a blowout (nbcsports.com). He's one of the best pure handcuffs available and almost unstartable on his own. His value is insurance on Bijan.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    -1.6
    Wks 14–17
    6.1
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  164. 164DEF15Packers D/STGB · Horus St. BrownSell4.2ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.1, likely 0.9–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–16.3
    2. Week 5: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.9
    3. Week 6: expected 2.9, likely 0.4–4.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.7
    4. Week 7: expected 2.4, likely 0.4–4, 10th–90th percentile 0–6.3
    5. Week 8: expected 4.9, likely 0.7–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–13
    6. Week 9: expected 5.1, likely 0.8–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.6
    7. Week 10: expected 4.5, likely 0.7–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 2.7, likely 0.4–4.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.1
    10. Week 13: expected 4.0, likely 0.6–6.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.6
    11. Week 14: expected 2.8, likely 0.4–4.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.3
    12. Week 15: expected 6.8, likely 1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.2
    13. Week 16: expected 3.2, likely 0.5–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.4
    14. Week 17: expected 4.8, likely 0.7–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–12.8
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    1.7 ppg (4, 7, -6). Weeks 14-17 (BUF, MIA, @CHI, HOU) include two softer offenses, but ESPN projects only 4.4 ppg. Replaceable by any streamer.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.9
    Above repl.
    -1.6
    Wks 14–17
    4.4
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  165. 165TE18Darren WallerCAR · Los Angeles LesbiansHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.5, likely 5–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.7
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.7
    4. Week 7: expected 7.5, likely 3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.5
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.3
    6. Week 9: expected 7.4, likely 2.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.2
    7. Week 10: expected 7.9, likely 3.1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.2
    8. Week 11: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.1
    9. Week 12: expected 7.4, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.4
    10. Week 13: expected 7.1, likely 2.8–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–14.6
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.4
    12. Week 15: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.1
    13. Week 16: expected 7.4, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.3
    14. Week 17: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A red-zone specialist in a three-way split with Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans: 44% of snaps in Week 2 (two TDs), then 5-51 on eight targets in Week 3 (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He practiced fully through a toe injury, and with Xavier Legette out ESPN's Week 4 number spikes to 10.1, but the base role stays part-time. A 34-year-old below replacement outside of good weeks. Week 5 bye.

    Why not the projection (6.5) Raised to 8.0 from ESPN's 6.5 because his red-zone usage and 8-target Week 3 beat ESPN's baseline, though the snap share caps him.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.7
    Wks 14–17
    7.7
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  166. 166RB46Jadarian PriceSEA · Free WinSell8.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.7
    6. Week 9: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.5
    7. Week 10: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 7.8, likely 4.1–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.7
    10. Week 13: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.8
    11. Week 14: expected 9.1, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–17
    12. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.9
    13. Week 16: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.8
    14. Week 17: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.1
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seattle put the rookie on IR on Oct 3 after he re-aggravated a Week 2 chest injury in practice; Week 8 against the Bears (Nov. 2) is his earliest return, which matches ESPN's sheet (nbcsports.com). He has scored 7.8, 5.0 and 1.2 with fumble problems, and by Week 8 Zach Charbonnet should be back and could push him for the starting job (nbcsports.com). The first-round draft capital is the only thing keeping his price up.

    Why not the projection (10.5) Two points below ESPN because he returns to a likely split with Charbonnet after averaging 4.7 PPG with ball-security problems.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.5
    Above repl.
    -1.7
    Wks 14–17
    8.4
    Games
    9
    Free Win →
  167. 167QB22Justin HerbertLAC · Team Cash Money SquaHold14.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.3, likely 6.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–23.8
    2. Week 5: expected 13.6, likely 7.2–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.2
    3. Week 6: expected 13.4, likely 7.1–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–25.8
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 12.8, likely 6.8–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–24.8
    6. Week 9: expected 13.9, likely 7.4–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–26.8
    7. Week 10: expected 13.9, likely 7.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–26.9
    8. Week 11: expected 14.9, likely 9.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–24.6
    9. Week 12: expected 14.0, likely 9.3–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.2
    10. Week 13: expected 13.6, likely 7.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.3
    11. Week 14: expected 14.5, likely 9.6–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.9
    12. Week 15: expected 14.4, likely 9.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.7
    13. Week 16: expected 16.0, likely 10.5–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–26.4
    14. Week 17: expected 14.1, likely 9.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–23.3
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    11.3 ppg on an 0-3 team: 226 yards and a TD in Week 3 at Buffalo under constant pressure, and NBC now calls him firmly a QB2 as Mike McDaniel's new offense keeps stalling on penalties and drops (nbcsports.com). Talent says he should rebound, but nothing on film supports projecting more than ESPN's 14.2. Not startable over the waiver wire right now.

    Tier
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    13.0
    Above repl.
    -1.8
    Wks 14–17
    14.8
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  168. 168WR54Michael Pittman Jr.PIT · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold7.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.5
    2. Week 5: expected 7.8, likely 3.8–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–15.1
    3. Week 6: expected 7.1, likely 3.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.8
    4. Week 7: expected 7.7, likely 3.8–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.9
    5. Week 8: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.4
    8. Week 11: expected 7.3, likely 3.6–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14.1
    9. Week 12: expected 7.0, likely 3.4–10, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.6
    10. Week 13: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    11. Week 14: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.3
    12. Week 15: expected 7.5, likely 3.7–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.6
    13. Week 16: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.4
    14. Week 17: expected 7.4, likely 3.6–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Pittman's plantar fascia flare-up cost him Week 2 and is a recurring issue that could keep him on injury reports all season (si.com). He's a near every-down WR2 behind DK Metcalf, but Aaron Rodgers averages 5.2 yards per attempt with no 20-yard completions through two weeks, and Pittman has 4.1 PPG. Bench depth.

    Why not the projection (8.1) Shaded below ESPN's 8.1: a lingering foot issue and the league's least efficient passing game.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -1.9
    Wks 14–17
    7.4
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  169. 169WR55Romeo DoubsNE · Los Angeles LesbiansSell7.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.2, likely 4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–16
    2. Week 5: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.4
    3. Week 6: expected 8.9, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–17.3
    4. Week 7: expected 8.8, likely 4.3–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–17.1
    5. Week 8: expected 7.2, likely 3.5–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14
    6. Week 9: expected 7.1, likely 3.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.9
    7. Week 10: expected 7.5, likely 3.7–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–14.5
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 6.9, likely 3.4–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.4
    10. Week 13: expected 7.3, likely 3.6–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–14.1
    11. Week 14: expected 6.4, likely 3.1–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.4
    12. Week 15: expected 6.8, likely 3.3–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–13.1
    13. Week 16: expected 6.8, likely 3.3–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–13.3
    14. Week 17: expected 6.6, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.8
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Even with A.J. Brown out, Doubs has 6 catches in three games and NBC calls him 'an afterthought in the New England offense' (nbcsports.com). ESPN's 10+ projections for Weeks 4-7 assume he takes Brown's targets, and that hasn't happened. Brown's return (Week 6 at the earliest) then pushes him to WR3. He's an every-down player with no target share.

    Why not the projection (8.9) Below ESPN's 8.9: 6.8 actual PPG with Brown out, and less once Brown returns.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -1.9
    Wks 14–17
    6.7
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  170. 170TE19Brenton StrangeJAX · Team Cash Money SquaSell7.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.3, likely 2.5–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.9
    2. Week 5: expected 7.5, likely 3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.5
    3. Week 6: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.2
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.1
    6. Week 9: expected 7.6, likely 3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.7
    7. Week 10: expected 7.5, likely 3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.5
    8. Week 11: expected 7.6, likely 3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.7
    9. Week 12: expected 7.6, likely 3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.7
    10. Week 13: expected 7.5, likely 3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.5
    11. Week 14: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.3
    12. Week 15: expected 7.4, likely 2.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.2
    13. Week 16: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.4
    14. Week 17: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Nine targets in three games (3, 2, then 5) and 6.7 PPG, competing with Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington, and analysts already call him touchdown-dependent (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). ESPN's 9.6 assumes volume that has not arrived. He is below replacement; Hockenson on waivers is the better roster spot. Week 7 bye.

    Why not the projection (9.6) Cut to 7.5 from ESPN's 9.6 because about three targets a game behind three receivers does not support his projection.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -2.1
    Wks 14–17
    7.7
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  171. 171RB47Tyjae SpearsTEN · I have a dreamHold5.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.2
    2. Week 5: expected 5.2, likely 2.7–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–9.7
    3. Week 6: expected 5.5, likely 2.9–7.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–10.4
    4. Week 7: expected 5.4, likely 2.8–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–10.2
    5. Week 8: expected 5.3, likely 2.8–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–10.1
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 5.2, likely 2.7–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–9.9
    8. Week 11: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.5
    9. Week 12: expected 5.1, likely 2.6–6.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–9.6
    10. Week 13: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.6
    11. Week 14: expected 5.7, likely 3–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.7
    12. Week 15: expected 5.7, likely 3–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.4, likely 2.8–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–10.1
    14. Week 17: expected 5.3, likely 2.7–7.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–9.9
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Spears was questionable with an ankle injury going into Week 4 and is clearly behind Tony Pollard in a Titans offense that limits even Pollard to a moderate flex (nbcsports.com). His 4.6 PPG and 0.5-point Week 3 are about right. He's a handcuff in a bad offense, so he's only rosterable as depth.

    Why not the projection (6.8) Below ESPN's 6.8 because he's the clear No. 2 behind Pollard in a weak offense and has produced 4.6 PPG.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.1
    Above repl.
    -2.1
    Wks 14–17
    5.5
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  172. 172DEF16Cardinals D/STARI · Abhinav's TeamSell3.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 5.5, likely 0.8–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.5
    2. Week 5: expected 2.5, likely 0.4–4.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–6.7
    3. Week 6: expected 2.6, likely 0.4–4.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–7
    4. Week 7: expected 3.4, likely 0.5–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.9
    5. Week 8: expected 2.5, likely 0.4–4.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–6.6
    6. Week 9: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.8
    7. Week 10: expected 2.9, likely 0.4–4.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.6
    8. Week 11: expected 2.7, likely 0.4–4.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–7.2
    9. Week 12: expected 3.3, likely 0.5–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.7
    10. Week 13: expected 3.8, likely 0.6–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–10
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 4.4, likely 0.7–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.7
    13. Week 16: expected 3.6, likely 0.5–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–9.5
    14. Week 17: expected 5.0, likely 0.7–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.2
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A 12-point Week 1 has been followed by 1 and -4, behind a defense that gave up 36 to San Francisco. The Week 14 bye removes them from the first playoff week. A drop.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.3
    Above repl.
    -2.2
    Wks 14–17
    3.3
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  173. 173RB48Mike Washington Jr.LV · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold5.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 3.3, likely 1.3–4.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–7
    2. Week 5: expected 5.1, likely 2–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.7
    3. Week 6: expected 5.6, likely 2.2–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–11.8
    4. Week 7: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    5. Week 8: expected 5.2, likely 2.1–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–11
    6. Week 9: expected 4.9, likely 1.9–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.2
    7. Week 10: expected 4.6, likely 1.8–6.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–9.6
    8. Week 11: expected 4.8, likely 1.9–6.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10
    9. Week 12: expected 5.1, likely 2.1–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.8
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 5.4, likely 2.2–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–11.3
    12. Week 15: expected 5.1, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.6
    13. Week 16: expected 5.5, likely 2.2–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–11.5
    14. Week 17: expected 5.6, likely 2.2–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–11.7
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Klint Kubiak wouldn't promise any snap split between Washington and Ashton Jeanty (nfl.com), but in practice Jeanty has the job and the rookie gets change-of-pace carries (4.1, 0.7, then 11.4 in Week 3). The burst is real, and he becomes a starter if Jeanty, who dealt with an ankle injury in August, goes down. Until then he's a stash.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    4.7
    Above repl.
    -2.5
    Wks 14–17
    5.4
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  174. 174WR56Makai LemonPHI · Team Cash Money SquaSell6.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 4.4–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.4
    2. Week 5: expected 8.9, likely 4.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–17.3
    3. Week 6: expected 6.0, likely 3–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.7
    4. Week 7: expected 6.4, likely 3.1–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.4
    5. Week 8: expected 6.2, likely 3.1–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    6. Week 9: expected 6.1, likely 3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–11.9
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.3
    10. Week 13: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    11. Week 14: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    12. Week 15: expected 5.8, likely 2.8–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.2
    13. Week 16: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    14. Week 17: expected 6.0, likely 2.9–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The first-round rookie plays a lot of snaps and produces little: 5 targets in his first two games for under 25 yards, while Nick Sirianni praises his blocking (draftsharks.com). DeVonta Smith's multi-game hamstring absence opens some targets (profootballrumors.com), but Dontayvion Wicks is first in line. His 3.4 PPG doesn't support the ~510 price.

    Why not the projection (7.6) Below ESPN's 7.6: 3.4 actual PPG, and Wicks, not Lemon, gets the first look while Smith is out.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.1
    Above repl.
    -2.8
    Wks 14–17
    6.0
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  175. 175WR57Chris Godwin Jr.TB · Ari's Astounding TeamSell6.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.4, likely 3.1–9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.3
    2. Week 5: expected 6.4, likely 3.2–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.5
    3. Week 6: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    4. Week 7: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.5
    5. Week 8: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.6
    6. Week 9: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 7.1, likely 3.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–13.7
    9. Week 12: expected 6.6, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.7
    10. Week 13: expected 6.6, likely 3.3–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.9
    11. Week 14: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.7
    12. Week 15: expected 6.8, likely 3.3–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–13.2
    13. Week 16: expected 6.4, likely 3.1–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.5
    14. Week 17: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.2
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Godwin is third among Tampa Bay receivers in snap share (62%) and hasn't been targeted more than four times in a game (cbssports.com). Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels now starts until Baker Mayfield returns, Week 7 at the earliest (nfl.com). Ted Hurst out-targeted him through three weeks, so he's bench depth.

    Why not the projection (7.2) Below ESPN's 7.2: at most 4 targets a game behind Egbuka and Hurst, with a rookie QB for at least two more weeks.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.0
    Above repl.
    -2.9
    Wks 14–17
    6.5
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  176. 176RB49Emmett JohnsonKC · Abhinav's TeamHold4.6ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 4.7, likely 2.5–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.9
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 4.8, likely 2.5–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.9
    4. Week 7: expected 4.1, likely 2.1–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.7
    5. Week 8: expected 4.4, likely 2.3–5.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–8.2
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 2.4–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.8
    7. Week 10: expected 4.4, likely 2.3–6, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–8.3
    8. Week 11: expected 5.1, likely 2.6–6.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–9.5
    9. Week 12: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.7
    10. Week 13: expected 4.2, likely 2.2–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–7.9
    11. Week 14: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.6
    12. Week 15: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.6
    13. Week 16: expected 4.5, likely 2.3–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.4
    14. Week 17: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.6
    Points by week, 0–10. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    RB coach DeMarco Murray promised the rookie more opportunities (heavy.com), but his snap share fell from 36% in Week 1 to 18% in Week 2, and he has scored 8.8, 5.5, 1.7. He's the handcuff to Kenneth Walker III, who has missed 10 games in four seasons, and that is the only reason to hold him.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    4.2
    Above repl.
    -3.0
    Wks 14–17
    4.6
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  177. 177WR58Jordyn TysonNO · Horus St. BrownHold9.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 0–8, 10th–90th percentile 0–14.9 (questionable)
    7. Week 10: expected 9.6, likely 4.7–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.5
    8. Week 11: expected 9.5, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 4.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.4
    10. Week 13: expected 9.9, likely 4.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    11. Week 14: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.3
    12. Week 15: expected 9.2, likely 4.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17.8
    13. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 4.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.5
    14. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 4.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie has been on IR with a hamstring injury since a mid-August practice. Kellen Moore said Oct. 1 he doesn't expect Tyson to practice next week, so Week 5 is unlikely and Week 6 practice is more realistic (nbcsports.com). With a Week 7 London game and a Week 8 bye, ESPN's Week 9 return date is reasonable, but he's had recurring hamstring problems since college, so Week 9 is questionable. Once back he should take the WR1/2 job from Vele for the playoff run. Tier moved up one (T8 to T7) for playoff-window upside: Weeks 9-17 as a starting outside receiver.

    Why not the projection (10.4) Slightly below ESPN's 10.4 for a rookie returning from a recurring hamstring injury midseason; ESPN's Weeks 4-8 zeroes are correct, and Week 9 is questionable.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.8
    Above repl.
    -3.1
    Wks 14–17
    9.5
    Games
    8.5
    Horus St. Brown →
  178. 178RB50Kaelon BlackSF · Abhinav's TeamHold4.4ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 5.2, likely 2.7–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–9.8
    2. Week 5: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.2
    3. Week 6: expected 4.7, likely 2.5–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.9
    4. Week 7: expected 4.3, likely 2.2–5.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–8
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 2.5–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.9
    7. Week 10: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.6
    8. Week 11: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.6
    9. Week 12: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.6
    10. Week 13: expected 4.7, likely 2.5–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.9
    11. Week 14: expected 4.2, likely 2.2–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–7.9
    12. Week 15: expected 4.5, likely 2.3–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.4
    13. Week 16: expected 4.1, likely 2.1–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–7.7
    14. Week 17: expected 4.4, likely 2.3–6, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–8.3
    Points by week, 0–10. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The third-round rookie won the backup job behind Christian McCaffrey and out-carried him in Week 1 with 14 carries (nbcsportsbayarea.com), but 2.5 and 1.7 points since then show what his role is when McCaffrey is healthy. He's a premium handcuff in the Shanahan system and nothing more until McCaffrey misses time.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    4.1
    Above repl.
    -3.1
    Wks 14–17
    4.3
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  179. 179WR59Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · Kirkland SignatureSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.6
    2. Week 5: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    3. Week 6: expected 5.7, likely 2.8–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.1
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 6.1, likely 3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–11.9
    6. Week 9: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.5
    7. Week 10: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.5
    8. Week 11: expected 6.0, likely 2.9–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.6
    9. Week 12: expected 6.0, likely 2.9–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.6
    10. Week 13: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    11. Week 14: expected 5.8, likely 2.8–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.2
    12. Week 15: expected 5.7, likely 2.8–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.1
    13. Week 16: expected 6.2, likely 3.1–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    14. Week 17: expected 6.2, likely 3–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    BTJ played 23 snaps and drew 1 target in Week 3. Coach Liam Coen pointed to 12-personnel packages, and NBC notes his usage 'has been spotty even in two-receiver sets' (nbcsports.com). Meyers and Parker Washington are ahead of him for targets, and 7, 7, 1.8 is what a rotational player scores. The ~520 market is still paying for the 2024 breakout. Sell while the name still gets offers.

    Why not the projection (7.6) Below ESPN's 7.6: he's a part-time player (23 snaps, 13 routes in Week 3) behind Meyers and Washington.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    -3.3
    Wks 14–17
    6.0
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  180. 180WR60Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · Ari's Astounding TeamSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.6, likely 3.2–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.8
    2. Week 5: expected 6.5, likely 3.2–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.6
    3. Week 6: expected 5.5, likely 2.7–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–10.8
    4. Week 7: expected 5.6, likely 2.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–10.9
    5. Week 8: expected 6.2, likely 3–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12
    6. Week 9: expected 5.5, likely 2.7–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–10.7
    7. Week 10: expected 5.7, likely 2.8–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11
    8. Week 11: expected 5.7, likely 2.8–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.1
    9. Week 12: expected 6.3, likely 3.1–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–12.1
    10. Week 13: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.4
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 5.9, likely 2.9–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.5
    13. Week 16: expected 6.1, likely 3–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–11.7
    14. Week 17: expected 6.0, likely 2.9–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–11.6
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    MHJ drew fewer than 10% of targets on Jacoby Brissett's 52 attempts in Week 3, and Michael Wilson is Brissett's preferred wideout behind Trey McBride (nbcsports.com). Coach Mike LaFleur says he won't manufacture touches, and NBC calls him 'a low-end fantasy WR4 at best.' The only upside is a deadline trade to a team that wants him. At ~600 the market is still paying for his draft slot.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.5
    Above repl.
    -3.4
    Wks 14–17
    4.5
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  181. 181TE20Hunter HenryNE · I have a dreamSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.0, likely 3.7–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–13
    2. Week 5: expected 6.0, likely 3.1–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11
    3. Week 6: expected 5.9, likely 3.1–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11
    4. Week 7: expected 5.9, likely 3.1–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.9
    5. Week 8: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.4
    6. Week 9: expected 6.1, likely 3.1–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.2
    7. Week 10: expected 6.3, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.7
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 5.9, likely 3.1–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.9
    10. Week 13: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.4
    11. Week 14: expected 5.5, likely 2.8–7.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–10.1
    12. Week 15: expected 5.8, likely 3–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 3–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.8
    14. Week 17: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.4
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seven catches in three games, his snap share fell to 71% in Week 3, and A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs and rookie Eli Raridon all compete for the same targets (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Raridon (thigh) returning only makes it worse (nbcsports.com). At 4.7 actual PPG he is well below replacement and can be dropped for Hockenson. Week 11 bye.

    Why not the projection (7.6) Cut to 6.0 from ESPN's 7.6 because 4.7 actual PPG and a shrinking snap share in a crowded offense support no more.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    -3.5
    Wks 14–17
    5.7
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  182. 182TE21Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL · Hanging with HernandezSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.1, likely 2.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.7
    2. Week 5: expected 6.1, likely 2.4–9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.6
    3. Week 6: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.4
    4. Week 7: expected 6.1, likely 2.4–9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.5
    5. Week 8: expected 5.8, likely 2.3–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12
    6. Week 9: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.5
    7. Week 10: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.4
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 5.6, likely 2.2–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–11.4
    10. Week 13: expected 6.5, likely 2.6–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–13.4
    11. Week 14: expected 5.8, likely 2.3–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–11.9
    12. Week 15: expected 6.2, likely 2.5–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.8
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 2.3–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12
    14. Week 17: expected 6.2, likely 2.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.7
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Two catches for 20 yards in three games; Michael Penix's return in Week 3 changed nothing (1 catch on 2 targets), while blocking TE Austin Hooper caught the touchdown (nbcsports.com). Still drafted on hype, still producing like a TE3. Well below replacement; Hockenson on waivers outscores this. Week 11 bye.

    Why not the projection (7.2) Cut to 6.0 from ESPN's 7.2 because he has 1.3 actual PPG and is barely targeted.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    -3.5
    Wks 14–17
    6.0
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  183. 183RB51Justice HillBAL · Team Cash Money SquaHold4.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.6
    2. Week 5: expected 3.8, likely 2–5.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.2
    3. Week 6: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.4
    4. Week 7: expected 4.1, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.6
    5. Week 8: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.6
    6. Week 9: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.4
    7. Week 10: expected 4.1, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.6
    8. Week 11: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.5
    9. Week 12: expected 3.8, likely 2–5.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.1
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.4
    12. Week 15: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.3
    13. Week 16: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.5
    14. Week 17: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.5
    Points by week, 0–10. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Hill is Baltimore's passing-down back behind Derrick Henry, and his touches depend on game script (si.com). Three straight weeks of 3.3-3.8 points show the ceiling when the Ravens aren't trailing. He doesn't belong in a starting lineup and could be cut.

    Why not the projection (4.7) Below ESPN's 4.7 to match a 3.6 PPG floor-only role.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.7
    Above repl.
    -3.5
    Wks 14–17
    4.0
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  184. 184RB52MarShawn LloydGB · London BridgeSell3.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.5
    2. Week 5: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.1
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.3
    4. Week 7: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.1
    5. Week 8: expected 2.5, likely 1.3–3.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.6
    6. Week 9: expected 2.2, likely 1.2–3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.2
    7. Week 10: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–3.9
    10. Week 13: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.5
    11. Week 14: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.5
    12. Week 15: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.8
    13. Week 16: expected 2.3, likely 1.2–3.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.4
    14. Week 17: expected 2.2, likely 1.2–3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.2
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Lloyd went into the season as the fill-in lead back with Josh Jacobs on the exempt list, but he had competition from trade pickup Kaleb Johnson (sports.yahoo.com), and he has scored only 3.7, 8.6 and 3.8. ESPN projects him at about 8.7 for Weeks 5-7 and then about 2.6 once Jacobs is back; since his lead-back stretch has produced 5.4 PPG, I've scaled the whole line down. If anyone sees him as the Packers' starter, sell him this week.

    Why not the projection (4.4) Under ESPN because his lead-back stretch has averaged 5.4 PPG, well short of the 8.7 ESPN projects for Weeks 5-7, and he's a backup once Jacobs returns.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.5
    Above repl.
    -3.7
    Wks 14–17
    2.4
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  185. 185RB53Jonah ColemanDEN · Horus St. BrownHold5.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 2.5, likely 0–4.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.3 (questionable)
    5. Week 8: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    6. Week 9: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    9. Week 12: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    10. Week 13: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    11. Week 14: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    12. Week 15: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    13. Week 16: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    14. Week 17: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.5
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The rookie suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 2, where he scored a TD in a 14.8-point game, and Denver put him on IR on Sept. 26, so he can't return before Week 7 against Arizona (Oct. 25) (nbcsports.com); reports say that's the target date (predominantlyorange.com). That breakout came with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey both hurt. With both healthy he returns as the No. 3 back in a committee, so he's a stash who needs another injury to matter. ESPN projects him at zero all season; this board puts him back in at about 5 points a game from Week 7.

    Why not the projection (5.0) We overwrote ESPN's all-zero projection: he went on IR Sept. 26 with a four-game minimum and is eligible to return in Week 7, so Weeks 7-17 (minus the Week 10 bye) are set at 5.0 as a No. 3 back, with Week 7 questionable for a lingering high-ankle sprain.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.4
    Above repl.
    -3.8
    Wks 14–17
    5.0
    Games
    9.5
    Horus St. Brown →
  186. 186RB54Emanuel WilsonSEA · Ankit's Awesome TeamSell8.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.3, likely 5.4–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.4
    2. Week 5: expected 12.2, likely 6.4–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23
    3. Week 6: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.6
    4. Week 7: expected 5.7, likely 3–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: bye or not projected
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: bye or not projected
    13. Week 16: bye or not projected
    14. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Wilson heads the Seattle depth chart with Jadarian Price on IR (sports.yahoo.com), but he's averaging 3.4 yards a carry (109 yards on 32 attempts), and Zach Charbonnet's PUP window is already open (nbcsports.com). ESPN's shape is right: lead work in Weeks 4-5, a smaller role once Charbonnet is back in Weeks 6-7, and nothing after Price returns in Week 8. As the No. 3 back behind Charbonnet and Price, his zeros after Week 7 are close enough to correct. Any value he has is in the next two weeks.

    Why not the projection (9.5) Under ESPN's 9.5 because 3.4 yards per carry and 3.6 PPG through three weeks don't support a 11-14 point lead-back projection.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    2.4
    Above repl.
    -4.8
    Wks 14–17
    0.0
    Games
    4
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  187. 187TE22Terrance FergusonLAR · Kirkland SignatureSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 6.0, likely 3.1–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.1
    6. Week 9: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.4
    7. Week 10: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.5
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.4
    10. Week 13: expected 6.0, likely 3.1–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11
    11. Week 14: expected 6.0, likely 3.1–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11
    12. Week 15: expected 6.3, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.7, likely 3–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.5
    14. Week 17: expected 5.8, likely 3–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.7
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    On IR with a medial ankle sprain from Week 3; the earliest he can return is Week 8 against the Chargers, and Tyler Higbee (8-62-1 in Week 3) is the Rams' receiving TE for now (nbcsports.com). Before the injury he had 12 targets in three games. ESPN already has him at zero through Week 7, then about 6 points a week, far below replacement. Drop.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.9
    Above repl.
    -5.2
    Wks 14–17
    6.0
    Games
    9
    Kirkland Signature →
  188. 188RB55George HolaniSEA · Free WinHold5.8ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.1
    2. Week 5: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.6
    3. Week 6: expected 3.1, likely 1.6–4.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–5.8
    4. Week 7: expected 3.1, likely 1.6–4.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–5.9
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: bye or not projected
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: bye or not projected
    13. Week 16: bye or not projected
    14. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Holani is No. 2 behind Emanuel Wilson while Price is on IR (52 yards on 15 carries) (sports.yahoo.com), and he drops to No. 4 once Charbonnet (Week 6-ish) and Price (Week 8) return. ESPN zeroing him out after Week 7 is fair, since a fourth-string back with special-teams snaps isn't worth projecting. He's a two-week rental at most, then waiver material.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    1.7
    Above repl.
    -5.5
    Wks 14–17
    0.0
    Games
    4
    Free Win →
  189. 189WR61Calvin RidleyTEN · Ari's Astounding TeamSell2.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 2.1, likely 1–2.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–4
    2. Week 5: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.7
    3. Week 6: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5
    4. Week 7: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.7
    5. Week 8: expected 2.5, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.8
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: expected 2.5, likely 1.2–3.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.9
    8. Week 11: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5
    9. Week 12: expected 2.5, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.8
    10. Week 13: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5.1
    11. Week 14: expected 2.7, likely 1.3–3.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5.2
    12. Week 15: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–5
    13. Week 16: expected 2.5, likely 1.2–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.8
    14. Week 17: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.7
    Points by week, 0–10. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    ESPN's 2.9 is a role projection, not an injury. In Week 3 Ridley played 20 snaps, fourth among Titans WRs behind Carnell Tate (53), Elic Ayomanor (48) and Wan'Dale Robinson (38), and he has 2 catches for 35 yards in three games (cbssports.com). Tennessee is giving his snaps to the younger Ayomanor, so he's a WR4 on a bad offense. Droppable.

    Why not the projection (2.9) Slightly under ESPN's 2.9: he's been passed by Ayomanor and is down to a 20-snap rotation role.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    2.3
    Above repl.
    -6.6
    Wks 14–17
    2.6
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  190. 190WR62Jalen McMillanTB · Kirkland SignatureSell4.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    9. Week 12: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    10. Week 13: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    11. Week 14: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    12. Week 15: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    13. Week 16: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    14. Week 17: expected 4.5, likely 2.2–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–8.7
    Points by week, 0–10. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    McMillan sprained the PCL in his left knee in Week 3, went on IR Sept. 30, and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks (cbssports.com). That points to a Week 9-11 return around Tampa's Week 10 bye. He saw little action before the injury, and rookie Ted Hurst has taken the WR3 job behind Egbuka and Godwin. Even back by Week 11 he's a 4-5 point depth receiver. Droppable. ESPN projects him at zero all season; this board adds him back at 4.5 a game from Week 11.

    Why not the projection (4.5) We overwrote ESPN's all-zero projection: CBS has the PCL sprain at 6-8 weeks from Week 3, so Weeks 11-17 (after Tampa's Week 10 bye) are set at 4.5 as a low-volume WR4.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    2.3
    Above repl.
    -6.6
    Wks 14–17
    4.5
    Games
    7
    Kirkland Signature →
  191. 191RB56Isiah PachecoDET · Kirkland SignatureHold4.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: bye or not projected
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: bye or not projected
    13. Week 16: bye or not projected
    14. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Expected points by week, 0–10.

    Pacheco had back surgery in mid-September with a 12-week recovery timeline, so Rotowire's estimated return is Dec. 6; that's only a chance, and a setback could end his season (rotowire.com). Even healthy, he'd return as Jahmyr Gibbs' backup on a team where Gibbs handled 29 of 31 backfield carries in Week 1, so the best case is a few touches a game in Weeks 14-17. He's an IR stash with little upside, kept only as a possible Gibbs handcuff for the playoffs.

    Why not the projection (0.0) ppg is a placeholder for a low-volume Gibbs backup; we keep ESPN's all-zero projection because the only return estimate (Rotowire's Dec. 6) is a guess, so he carries no value on this board.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    0.0
    Above repl.
    -7.2
    Wks 14–17
    0.0
    Games
    0
    Kirkland Signature →
  192. 192QB23Marcus MariotaWSH · Los Angeles LesbiansSell16.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 16.0, likely 10.6–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–26.4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: bye or not projected
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: bye or not projected
    13. Week 16: bye or not projected
    14. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Only relevant while Daniels was out. Mariota re-injured the right MCL he hurt in preseason during Week 4 against the Colts, and rookie Athan Kaliakmanis finished the game (espn.com). Daniels is targeting Week 5, so ESPN rightly projects nothing after Week 4. A droppable roster spot for Los Angeles Lesbians.

    Why not the projection (18.5) ppg below ESPN's Week 4-only 18.5 because the knee injury makes even a spot start unlikely; no value beyond Week 4 either way.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    1.1
    Above repl.
    -13.7
    Wks 14–17
    0.0
    Games
    1
    Los Angeles Lesbians →

The analyst's notes

The first board of 2026 covers all 192 rostered players, with a projection for every week from 4 through 17 in our scoring. Tiers measure points per week above the best free agent at each position, so the waiver wire sets the scale: Deshaun Watson gives you 14.8 a week at QB, while the best free-agent back, Tyler Allgeier, gives you only 7.2. That gap shapes the whole board. Six of the top eight players are running backs, and Josh Allen projects for 22.3 a week, more than anyone but Gibbs, yet that's only 7.5 above Watson, which puts him in Tier 4 next to Kyren Williams.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Ankit's Awesome Team) is alone at the top. His 25.0 a week is 17.8 above replacement, just under the Tier 1 line. We moved him up because the next-best player, Bijan Robinson, is 5.0 points a week behind him. Tier 3 is Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase. Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the board at 23.0 per game, 2.5 above ESPN, on a league-high 37% target share.

Week 4 cost the board a lot of health, and those injuries are priced in even though the box scores aren't. Chase (concussion), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Ladd McConkey and Justin Jefferson are questionable for Week 5. Rashee Rice is out for Week 6 after the Chiefs' bye. Saquon Barkley is out for Week 5 and questionable for Weeks 6 and 7. Each take cites its source.

Big moves

This is the first edition, so nothing moved yet. These are the calls we're most confident in:

  • Saquon Barkley, 15.2 → 11.0 per game (Tier 6, sell). He had 34 carries and 3 catches through three weeks for 7.0 a game, before he strained his hamstring on his second carry of Week 4. FantasyCalc still values him at 4,765.
  • Isaiah Likely, 13.1 → 9.0 (Tier 7, sell). Jaxson Dart is out for the season. Likely scored 27.8 with Dart and 8.3 and 3.3 with Jameis Winston, so he's no better than T.J. Hockenson on waivers.
  • Big ESPN cuts: Carnell Tate 14.0 → 10.5, Tony Pollard 13.7 → 10.5 and Rhamondre Stevenson 12.2 → 8.5. All three are in bad offenses or committees, and their starts (8.4, 8.5 and a split with TreVeyon Henderson) back that up.
  • Raised above ESPN: Smith-Njigba 20.5 → 23.0, Dalton Kincaid 9.4 → 11.5 and Brock Bowers 15.2 → 16.5. Bowers had 13 targets and a 92% route rate in his debut.
  • Two projections we wrote ourselves. ESPN has Jonah Coleman and Jalen McMillan at zero all season. Both are on short-term IR: Coleman is eligible in Week 7 and McMillan has a 6–8 week timeline. We put them back in at 5.0 and 4.5 a game, which still leaves both in Tier 8. Isiah Pacheco stays at zero, since the only return estimate after his back surgery is a December guess.
  • Marcus Mariota has no value after Week 4. He re-injured his MCL, and Jayden Daniels is targeting Week 5. Daniels is a buy at FantasyCalc's 431.

Where we disagree with the market

Sells:

  • Kenneth Walker III (8,862). The market prices him like McCaffrey because of his 26.4-point start. We take him 0.9 under ESPN because Andy Reid says Emmett Johnson will get more snaps.
  • Brock Purdy (2,320). He's scoring 27.0 a game on a 9:1 TD:INT ratio that won't last. London Bridge rosters four starting QBs, so the surplus is trade bait.
  • A.J. Brown (2,840). The market prices a healthy WR1, but the ankle gives him roughly nine usable games.
  • Malik Nabers (2,984). He's at 7.2 a game with Winston throwing to him.
  • Omarion Hampton (3,016) and TreVeyon Henderson (1,799). Both are committee backs barely above replacement.
  • Colston Loveland (1,177). He's below the waiver wire while Caleb Williams' hamstring heals.

Buys:

  • Justin Jefferson (6,122). The market is discounting a mild ankle sprain.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,384). He's cheaper than Jeremiyah Love, D'Andre Swift and Barkley, but more valuable than all three while Jonathon Brooks is on IR.
  • Michael Wilson (2,069). His target share climbed to 34% in Week 3.
  • Josh Jacobs (1,291). The market is pricing in suspension risk, but he looks like an RB2 in the playoff weeks.
  • Tucker Kraft (997). He's still running a starter's routes.
  • Ollie Gordon II (520). He's Miami's lead back now that De'Von Achane has torn his ACL.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season, kickers and D/ST included. The starting point is ESPN's weekly projections, which ESPN already scores with our league's settings. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. In a one-QB, 12-team league the waiver wire always has a startable QB, kicker and D/ST, so those spots rank lower than their raw points suggest. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (12 teams, 1 QB, PPR). Projections: ESPN weekly projections, Weeks 4–17, in our league's scoring (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-05.