UIUC Fantasy FootballEst. 2018 · 2026 season

Week 3 boardUpdated Sun, Oct 4 · Weeks 4–17

Week 3 Player Board: Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Only Tier 1, Saquon Barkley Lands in Tier 6

Gibbs projects 25.0 points a week, 17.8 above the best free-agent back, the only player in Tier 1. Barkley lands in Tier 6 after a 7-ppg start and a Week 4 hamstring. Kenneth Walker III, Brock Purdy and A.J. Brown are the biggest sells against the market. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 14.8 · RB 7.2 · WR 8.9 · TE 9.1 · K 8.4 · DEF 5.5

  1. 1TETrey McBrideARI · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold18.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 18.1, likely 11.1–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.4
    2. Week 5: expected 20.0, likely 12.3–26, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–33.5
    3. Week 6: expected 17.7, likely 10.9–23, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.7
    4. Week 7: expected 17.7, likely 10.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.8
    5. Week 8: expected 19.4, likely 12–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.6
    6. Week 9: expected 17.6, likely 10.8–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–29.5
    7. Week 10: expected 17.9, likely 11–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–30
    8. Week 11: expected 18.2, likely 11.2–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–30.6
    9. Week 12: expected 19.3, likely 11.9–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–32.5
    10. Week 13: expected 18.5, likely 11.4–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.1
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 18.6, likely 11.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    13. Week 16: expected 18.9, likely 11.6–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–31.7
    14. Week 17: expected 18.6, likely 11.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–31.2
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The safest volume at the position: double-digit targets and at least eight catches in every game, with a 32.5% first-read target share from Jacoby Brissett, whose short-area habits funnel the ball to him (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Actual 19.7 PPG through three weeks backs a level above ESPN's 17.8. The one real knock is a Week 14 bye, which takes him out of a playoff week; ESPN still has him at 18 PPG for Weeks 14-17 otherwise. Top PAR at tight end on this board.

    Why not the projection (17.8) Raised to 18.5 from ESPN's 17.8 because his 10+ targets per game and 19.7 actual PPG show a floor ESPN is not pricing in.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    17.2
    Above repl.
    +8.1
    Wks 14–17
    14.0
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  2. 2TEBrock BowersLV · Free WinHold16.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 17.3, likely 9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–32
    2. Week 5: expected 16.6, likely 8.6–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–30.6
    3. Week 6: expected 18.1, likely 9.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–33.4
    4. Week 7: expected 16.7, likely 8.7–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–30.9
    5. Week 8: expected 17.1, likely 8.9–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–31.6
    6. Week 9: expected 17.2, likely 9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–31.9
    7. Week 10: expected 15.7, likely 8.1–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–29
    8. Week 11: expected 15.4, likely 8–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–28.4
    9. Week 12: expected 15.7, likely 8.2–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–29.1
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 16.4, likely 8.5–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.4
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 8.1–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–28.8
    13. Week 16: expected 16.4, likely 8.5–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–30.3
    14. Week 17: expected 16.9, likely 8.8–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–31.2
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Missed Weeks 1-2 after a September meniscus trim, then debuted in Week 3 with 10 catches for 116 yards and a score on a team-best 13 targets from Kirk Cousins, running a route on 92.1% of pass plays (fantasyfootballcalculator.com, fantasysixpack.net). That usage says ESPN's 15.2 is light; a late illness tag did not threaten Week 4 (sports.yahoo.com). The knee is the risk, and the Week 13 bye avoids the playoffs. Upside to be the TE1 overall, priced like it already.

    Why not the projection (15.2) Raised to 16.5 from ESPN's 15.2 on his Week 3 workload (13 targets, 92% route rate) with Cousins.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.4
    Above repl.
    +6.3
    Wks 14–17
    16.3
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  3. 3TEGeorge KittleSF · Ari's Astounding TeamHold14.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.1, likely 7.3–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.1
    2. Week 5: expected 14.1, likely 7.3–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.1
    3. Week 6: expected 15.1, likely 7.8–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–27.9
    4. Week 7: expected 14.4, likely 7.5–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 14.7, likely 7.6–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–27.1
    7. Week 10: expected 15.3, likely 8–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–28.4
    8. Week 11: expected 13.8, likely 7.2–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–25.5
    9. Week 12: expected 14.2, likely 7.4–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.3
    10. Week 13: expected 14.7, likely 7.6–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–27.1
    11. Week 14: expected 14.3, likely 7.4–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–26.4
    12. Week 15: expected 14.6, likely 7.6–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–27
    13. Week 16: expected 14.6, likely 7.6–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–26.9
    14. Week 17: expected 14.6, likely 7.6–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–27
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Back from a January Achilles tear and off the pitch count: 45% of snaps in Week 1, then 4-80-1 in Week 2 and 6-82-2 on a team-high seven targets in Week 3 (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). The 49ers receiver room is beat up (Mike Evans rib strain, two WRs on IR), which props up his target share for now (nbcsports.com). Expect volume to dip a bit when Evans returns, but the efficiency and red-zone role travel. Week 8 bye; ESPN 14.1 PPG for Weeks 14-17.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    13.5
    Above repl.
    +4.4
    Wks 14–17
    14.5
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  4. 4TETyler WarrenIND · Abhinav's TeamHold13.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 14.0, likely 8.6–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–23.6
    2. Week 5: expected 12.8, likely 7.9–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–21.5
    3. Week 6: expected 13.1, likely 8.1–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–22.1
    4. Week 7: expected 12.2, likely 7.5–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–20.4
    5. Week 8: expected 13.0, likely 8–17, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–21.8
    6. Week 9: expected 13.7, likely 8.4–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 5–23
    7. Week 10: expected 13.5, likely 8.3–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–22.8
    8. Week 11: expected 12.6, likely 7.8–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–21.2
    9. Week 12: expected 13.1, likely 8.1–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–22
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 12.8, likely 7.9–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–21.6
    12. Week 15: expected 12.9, likely 7.9–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–21.7
    13. Week 16: expected 13.1, likely 8.1–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–22
    14. Week 17: expected 12.5, likely 7.7–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–21
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Steady volume: 10.3, 14.4 and 14.7 points, capped by a career-high nine catches on 10 targets in Week 3 (fantasypros.com). Short-area usage keeps the yardage modest (55 yards on those nine catches), so the ceiling needs touchdowns. Keenan Allen being out and Alec Pierce's heel injury push even more targets his way in the short term (nbcsports.com). Week 13 bye, nothing in the playoffs to worry about.

    Why not the projection (12.1) Raised to 13.0 from ESPN's 12.1 to match his 13.1 actual PPG on a stable short-target role.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +3.0
    Wks 14–17
    12.8
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  5. 5TETravis KelceKC · Horus St. BrownSell12.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.0, likely 5.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.9
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 12.6, likely 5–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.9
    4. Week 7: expected 12.0, likely 4.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–24.8
    5. Week 8: expected 11.9, likely 4.8–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.6
    6. Week 9: expected 12.5, likely 5–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.8
    7. Week 10: expected 12.3, likely 4.9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.4
    8. Week 11: expected 13.0, likely 5.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.7
    9. Week 12: expected 13.0, likely 5.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.8
    10. Week 13: expected 12.0, likely 4.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–24.8
    11. Week 14: expected 12.5, likely 5–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.8
    12. Week 15: expected 12.2, likely 4.9–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.1
    13. Week 16: expected 12.6, likely 5.1–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.1
    14. Week 17: expected 12.5, likely 5–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    16.4 PPG on 14 catches, 231 yards and 2 TDs, but the catch counts swing wildly (3, 9, 2) and the points rest on long plays and back-to-back scores (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). We land between his actual production and ESPN's 11.3 because the yards per catch and touchdown rate will come down. The market still pays for a TE1 name (1,699), so this is the time to cash him out. Week 5 bye.

    Why not the projection (11.3) Raised to 12.5 from ESPN's 11.3 because he is still Mahomes' top-two target, but well below his 16.4 actual because the touchdowns and big plays will not hold.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    11.6
    Above repl.
    +2.5
    Wks 14–17
    12.5
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  6. 6TEDalton KincaidBUF · Marvins RoomHold11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 13.1, likely 5.2–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–27
    2. Week 5: expected 11.1, likely 4.4–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.9
    3. Week 6: expected 11.4, likely 4.5–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 11.6, likely 4.6–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.8
    6. Week 9: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    7. Week 10: expected 11.4, likely 4.5–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.4
    8. Week 11: expected 11.7, likely 4.7–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.2
    9. Week 12: expected 11.4, likely 4.6–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.6
    10. Week 13: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.8
    11. Week 14: expected 11.6, likely 4.6–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.9
    12. Week 15: expected 11.4, likely 4.5–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.4
    13. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.6
    14. Week 17: expected 11.7, likely 4.7–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The part-time label is gone: at least 66% of snaps in all three games, after never consistently reaching that in 2025, and he led Buffalo in targets, catches and yards over Weeks 1-2 (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He has only 17 targets in three games and 263 yards on 14 catches, so production depends on big plays (Week 3: 2 catches, 3.8 points). Above ESPN's 9.4 but below the 14.8 he has averaged. Week 7 bye.

    Why not the projection (9.4) Raised to 11.5 from ESPN's 9.4 because his snap share is up to 66%+ and he is a top Bills target, but efficiency will cool.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.7
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  7. 7TESam LaPortaDET · London BridgeHold11.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21
    2. Week 5: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–22
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–22
    5. Week 8: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–20.1
    6. Week 9: expected 12.0, likely 6.2–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–22.2
    7. Week 10: expected 11.2, likely 5.8–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–20.7
    8. Week 11: expected 11.3, likely 5.9–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–20.9
    9. Week 12: expected 11.6, likely 6–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.4
    10. Week 13: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.1
    11. Week 14: expected 11.6, likely 6–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.4
    12. Week 15: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–20
    13. Week 16: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.6
    14. Week 17: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Healthy after back surgery and running as Detroit's No. 2 or No. 3 target behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs: 23 targets in three games, 9.8, 17.2 and 7.4 points (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). That is a low-end TE1 with weekly touchdown variance, which is about what ESPN's 11.3 says. Only about 1.5 points a week better than the waiver wire. Week 6 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.7
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 14–17
    11.4
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  8. 8TEHarold Fannin Jr.CLE · Team Cash Money SquaHold11.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.2, likely 4.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.1
    2. Week 5: expected 10.9, likely 4.4–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.5
    3. Week 6: expected 11.1, likely 4.5–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23
    4. Week 7: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.6
    5. Week 8: expected 10.6, likely 4.2–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.8
    6. Week 9: expected 11.3, likely 4.5–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.2
    7. Week 10: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 4.4–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.8
    10. Week 13: expected 11.1, likely 4.5–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23
    11. Week 14: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.6
    12. Week 15: expected 11.1, likely 4.4–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.9
    13. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.7
    14. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 4.6–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.6
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Two touchdowns on 7 of 9 targets in Week 3 inflated the 12.9 PPG (24.1 that week, 4.1 and 10.4 before) (nbcsports.com). James Palmer calls him Cleveland's No. 3 pass catcher behind rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, though Deshaun Watson's checkdown style keeps feeding him (nbcsports.com). A back-end TE1 who needs touchdowns, roughly 1 point a week over replacement. Week 11 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.3
    Above repl.
    +1.2
    Wks 14–17
    11.1
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  9. 9TEJuwan JohnsonNO · Abhinav's TeamSell11.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 11.5, likely 4.6–17, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.7
    2. Week 5: expected 10.8, likely 4.3–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.4
    3. Week 6: expected 11.7, likely 4.7–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24
    4. Week 7: expected 11.3, likely 4.5–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.2
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 10.6, likely 4.2–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.8
    7. Week 10: expected 10.8, likely 4.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.2
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 4.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.2
    9. Week 12: expected 10.8, likely 4.3–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.4
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 4.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23
    11. Week 14: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22
    12. Week 15: expected 10.5, likely 4.2–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.6
    13. Week 16: expected 11.3, likely 4.5–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.3
    14. Week 17: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    TE4 in PPR on 15 catches, 173 yards and 3 TDs from 19 targets, with a career-best 78.9% catch rate, and he is clearly out-snapping Noah Fant (158 to 109) (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Two of those touchdowns came in Week 3, and Jordyn Tyson's return from IR around late October takes away targets. Scored at 11.0, not his 16.1 actual. Sell the TE4 finish while it's still current. Week 8 bye.

    Why not the projection (10.1) Raised to 11.0 from ESPN's 10.1 because he is the clear TE1 for Tyler Shough, but well below his 16.1 actual because the touchdown rate and Tyson's absence will not last.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.2
    Above repl.
    +1.1
    Wks 14–17
    10.8
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  10. 10TETucker KraftGB · Los Angeles LesbiansBuy10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.9
    2. Week 5: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–19.8
    3. Week 6: expected 11.3, likely 5.9–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–20.9
    4. Week 7: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–21.1
    5. Week 8: expected 10.5, likely 5.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–19.4
    6. Week 9: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–18.8
    7. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 5.1–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–18.2
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–18.6
    10. Week 13: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–20
    11. Week 14: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–20.6
    12. Week 15: expected 11.2, likely 5.8–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–20.8
    13. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 5.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–19.4
    14. Week 17: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–19.2
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The box scores are ugly (6.5 PPG, TE32 through Week 3), but the usage is that of a starter: every one of 50 snaps and a 94% route rate in Week 2, and a 15.1% target share (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). A 52.9% catch rate and two drops with Jordan Love look like a post-ACL rust problem, not a role problem, and he was the TE1 by PPG over Weeks 1-8 of 2025. Moved up one tier (base T7) for rebound upside. A buy at 997. Week 11 bye.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    9.8
    Above repl.
    +0.7
    Wks 14–17
    10.8
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  11. 11TEKenyon SadiqNYJ · Hanging with HernandezHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.6, likely 4.2–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.9
    2. Week 5: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20
    3. Week 6: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.8
    4. Week 7: expected 10.4, likely 4.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.5
    5. Week 8: expected 10.0, likely 4–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.6
    6. Week 9: expected 9.9, likely 4–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.4
    7. Week 10: expected 10.4, likely 4.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.5
    8. Week 11: expected 10.0, likely 4–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.6
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 4.1–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.4
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.8
    12. Week 15: expected 10.3, likely 4.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.2
    13. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20
    14. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.3
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The 16th overall pick broke out in Week 3 for 7-105-1 on eight targets when Mason Taylor (thumb) sat and his snap share jumped to 57% (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Taylor is week-to-week and Sadiq played through a back injury in Week 4 as the unquestioned Jets TE1 (nbcsports.com). The role shrinks when Taylor returns, so this is a near-replacement TE with rookie upside. Week 13 bye.

    Why not the projection (9.3) Raised to 10.0 from ESPN's 9.3 for a bigger role while Taylor is out, tempered by a time-share once he returns.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.2
    Wks 14–17
    9.8
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  12. 12TEDalton SchultzHOU · Free WinHold9.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    2. Week 5: expected 9.4, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.3
    3. Week 6: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.6
    4. Week 7: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.6
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 3.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.4
    7. Week 10: expected 9.0, likely 3.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.7
    8. Week 11: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.1
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 3.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.8
    11. Week 14: expected 9.8, likely 3.9–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.1
    12. Week 15: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.7
    13. Week 16: expected 9.3, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.3
    14. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 3.9–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.9
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Leads Houston with 25 targets through three weeks, but 14 came in Week 2 (12-140) while Nico Collins was out; with Collins back in Week 3 he had three targets (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). That spread makes him a streamer, not a starter. Above ESPN's 8.0 on the volume, still about replacement level. Week 8 bye.

    Why not the projection (8.0) Raised to 9.5 from ESPN's 8.0 because he leads the team in targets, though most came without Collins.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.9
    Above repl.
    -0.2
    Wks 14–17
    9.6
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  13. 13TEMark AndrewsBAL · Ari's Astounding TeamSell9.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.7
    2. Week 5: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.2
    3. Week 6: expected 9.1, likely 4.7–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.9
    4. Week 7: expected 9.5, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–17.6
    5. Week 8: expected 9.8, likely 5.1–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–18.2
    6. Week 9: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2–17.7
    7. Week 10: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.2
    9. Week 12: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.1
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.9
    12. Week 15: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.1
    13. Week 16: expected 9.1, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–16.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–17.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Isaiah Likely's departure was supposed to open things up, yet Andrews has 8.9, 10.9 and 5.4 points with just one red-zone target in three weeks (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He hurt his hand in Week 3, playing 47% of snaps and running 13 routes; he practiced fully for Week 4 (nbcsports.com). At 9.3 PPG he is a replacement-level tight end; Hockenson on waivers gives you about the same. Week 13 bye.

    Why not the projection (10.4) Cut from ESPN's 10.4 to 9.3 because his actual 8.4 PPG and lack of red-zone looks do not support a TE1 projection.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    -0.4
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  14. 14TEDallas GoedertPHI · Horus St. BrownHold10.5ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: expected 5.3, likely 0–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.7 (questionable)
    3. Week 6: expected 10.3, likely 4.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.3
    4. Week 7: expected 11.0, likely 4.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.7
    5. Week 8: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    6. Week 9: expected 10.5, likely 4.2–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.6
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 4.1–15, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21
    9. Week 12: expected 10.9, likely 4.4–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.5
    10. Week 13: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    11. Week 14: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.1
    12. Week 15: expected 10.1, likely 4–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.8
    13. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 4.1–15, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21
    14. Week 17: expected 10.4, likely 4.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.5
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Sprained his MCL in Week 2 and was ruled out for Week 4, his second straight absence, after not practicing all week; the original timeline was 'a few weeks' (nbcsports.com). Week 5 is a coin flip, so we score it at half. When healthy he scored 23.7 on two touchdowns in Week 1, but Philadelphia's passing game is sputtering and rookie Eli Stowers is on the roster (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Even healthy, he barely beats the waiver wire. Stash him only if you have the bench spot. Week 10 bye.

    Why not the projection (11.0) Week 5 marked questionable because he had not practiced since the Week 2 MCL sprain as of Week 4's final report.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.6
    Above repl.
    -0.5
    Wks 14–17
    10.4
    Games
    11.5
    Horus St. Brown →
  15. 15TEIsaiah LikelyNYG · Hanging with HernandezSell9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.6
    2. Week 5: expected 9.4, likely 3.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.4
    3. Week 6: expected 9.4, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.3
    4. Week 7: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.1
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.2
    7. Week 10: expected 9.3, likely 3.7–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.2
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 3.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.6
    9. Week 12: expected 9.2, likely 3.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.9
    10. Week 13: expected 9.0, likely 3.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.6
    11. Week 14: expected 8.4, likely 3.4–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.4
    12. Week 15: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.9
    13. Week 16: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.7
    14. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 3.8–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    His 27.8-point Week 1 came with Jaxson Dart, who is now out for the regular season after MCL/PCL/meniscus surgery (nbcnewyork.com). With Jameis Winston he has 8.3 and 3.3 points, including 2 catches on 5 targets in Week 3, and his snap share has run 49-69% (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). ESPN's 13.1 is still pricing in the Dart version of this offense. At 9.0 he is roughly the same player as T.J. Hockenson on waivers, before counting a Week 8 bye.

    Why not the projection (13.1) Cut from ESPN's 13.1 to 9.0 because Dart's season-ending knee injury left him with Winston, with whom he has averaged 5.8 PPR points.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    -0.7
    Wks 14–17
    9.0
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  16. 16TEColston LovelandCHI · I have a dreamSell8.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.8
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.2
    3. Week 6: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.1
    4. Week 7: expected 8.2, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.9
    5. Week 8: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.6
    6. Week 9: expected 8.2, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.9
    9. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 3.6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.6
    10. Week 13: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.6
    11. Week 14: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–13, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.2
    12. Week 15: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18
    13. Week 16: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.1, likely 3.6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    5 catches in three games despite 86%+ snap shares, and Caleb Williams' hamstring has already cost him Weeks 3 and 4, with Tyson Bagent expected to start (fantasyfootballcalculator.com, nbcsports.com). Week 3's four catches and a near-touchdown show a pulse, and Williams' return (possibly Week 5) is the path to ESPN's 10.0 PPG over Weeks 14-17. For now he is below replacement, and the market still pays sophomore-breakout prices. Week 10 bye.

    Why not the projection (9.6) Cut to 8.5 from ESPN's 9.6 because he has 2.8 actual PPG and more backup-QB weeks ahead.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.9
    Above repl.
    -1.2
    Wks 14–17
    8.8
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  17. 17TEJake FergusonDAL · Kirkland SignatureHold8.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–19.8
    2. Week 5: expected 8.2, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.9
    3. Week 6: expected 8.6, likely 3.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.8
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 3.3–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.2
    5. Week 8: expected 8.8, likely 3.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–18.1
    6. Week 9: expected 8.6, likely 3.4–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.8
    7. Week 10: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.5
    8. Week 11: expected 8.4, likely 3.4–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.4
    9. Week 12: expected 8.4, likely 3.4–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.4
    10. Week 13: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.6
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.7
    13. Week 16: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.6
    14. Week 17: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–17.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Three touchdowns on just 11 targets and 9 catches for 72 yards: pure touchdown variance behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He caught 82 passes in 2025, so the role can grow, but 3.7 targets a game will not support the 10.7 actual PPG. Below replacement, plus a Week 14 bye in the playoffs. A bye-week streamer only.

    Why not the projection (7.2) Raised to 8.5 from ESPN's 7.2 for his red-zone role, but well below his 10.7 actual because three TDs on 11 targets will not repeat.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.9
    Above repl.
    -1.2
    Wks 14–17
    6.3
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  18. 18TEDarren WallerCAR · Los Angeles LesbiansHold8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 12.5, likely 5–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–25.7
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.7
    4. Week 7: expected 7.5, likely 3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.5
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.3
    6. Week 9: expected 7.4, likely 2.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.2
    7. Week 10: expected 7.9, likely 3.1–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.2
    8. Week 11: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.1
    9. Week 12: expected 7.4, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.4
    10. Week 13: expected 7.1, likely 2.8–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–14.6
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.4
    12. Week 15: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.1
    13. Week 16: expected 7.4, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.3
    14. Week 17: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    A red-zone specialist in a three-way split with Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans: 44% of snaps in Week 2 (two TDs), then 5-51 on eight targets in Week 3 (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He practiced fully through a toe injury, and with Xavier Legette out ESPN's Week 4 number spikes to 10.1, but the base role stays part-time. A 34-year-old below replacement outside of good weeks. Week 5 bye.

    Why not the projection (6.5) Raised to 8.0 from ESPN's 6.5 because his red-zone usage and 8-target Week 3 beat ESPN's baseline, though the snap share caps him.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.7
    Wks 14–17
    7.7
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  19. 19TEBrenton StrangeJAX · Team Cash Money SquaSell7.5ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.3, likely 2.5–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.9
    2. Week 5: expected 7.5, likely 3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.5
    3. Week 6: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.2
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.1
    6. Week 9: expected 7.6, likely 3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.7
    7. Week 10: expected 7.5, likely 3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.5
    8. Week 11: expected 7.6, likely 3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.7
    9. Week 12: expected 7.6, likely 3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.7
    10. Week 13: expected 7.5, likely 3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.5
    11. Week 14: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.3
    12. Week 15: expected 7.4, likely 2.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–15.2
    13. Week 16: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.4
    14. Week 17: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–16.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Nine targets in three games (3, 2, then 5) and 6.7 PPG, competing with Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington, and analysts already call him touchdown-dependent (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). ESPN's 9.6 assumes volume that has not arrived. He is below replacement; Hockenson on waivers is the better roster spot. Week 7 bye.

    Why not the projection (9.6) Cut to 7.5 from ESPN's 9.6 because about three targets a game behind three receivers does not support his projection.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.0
    Above repl.
    -2.1
    Wks 14–17
    7.7
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  20. 20TEHunter HenryNE · I have a dreamSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.0, likely 3.7–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–13
    2. Week 5: expected 6.0, likely 3.1–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11
    3. Week 6: expected 5.9, likely 3.1–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11
    4. Week 7: expected 5.9, likely 3.1–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.9
    5. Week 8: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.4
    6. Week 9: expected 6.1, likely 3.1–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.2
    7. Week 10: expected 6.3, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.7
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 5.9, likely 3.1–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.9
    10. Week 13: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.4
    11. Week 14: expected 5.5, likely 2.8–7.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–10.1
    12. Week 15: expected 5.8, likely 3–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 3–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.8
    14. Week 17: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.4
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seven catches in three games, his snap share fell to 71% in Week 3, and A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs and rookie Eli Raridon all compete for the same targets (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Raridon (thigh) returning only makes it worse (nbcsports.com). At 4.7 actual PPG he is well below replacement and can be dropped for Hockenson. Week 11 bye.

    Why not the projection (7.6) Cut to 6.0 from ESPN's 7.6 because 4.7 actual PPG and a shrinking snap share in a crowded offense support no more.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    -3.5
    Wks 14–17
    5.7
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  21. 21TEKyle Pitts Sr.ATL · Hanging with HernandezSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 6.1, likely 2.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.7
    2. Week 5: expected 6.1, likely 2.4–9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.6
    3. Week 6: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.4
    4. Week 7: expected 6.1, likely 2.4–9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.5
    5. Week 8: expected 5.8, likely 2.3–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12
    6. Week 9: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.5
    7. Week 10: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.4
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 5.6, likely 2.2–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–11.4
    10. Week 13: expected 6.5, likely 2.6–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–13.4
    11. Week 14: expected 5.8, likely 2.3–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–11.9
    12. Week 15: expected 6.2, likely 2.5–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.8
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 2.3–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12
    14. Week 17: expected 6.2, likely 2.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–12.7
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Two catches for 20 yards in three games; Michael Penix's return in Week 3 changed nothing (1 catch on 2 targets), while blocking TE Austin Hooper caught the touchdown (nbcsports.com). Still drafted on hype, still producing like a TE3. Well below replacement; Hockenson on waivers outscores this. Week 11 bye.

    Why not the projection (7.2) Cut to 6.0 from ESPN's 7.2 because he has 1.3 actual PPG and is barely targeted.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    5.6
    Above repl.
    -3.5
    Wks 14–17
    6.0
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  22. 22TETerrance FergusonLAR · Kirkland SignatureSell6.0ppg
    1. Week 4: bye or not projected
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 6.0, likely 3.1–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.1
    6. Week 9: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.4
    7. Week 10: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.5
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.4
    10. Week 13: expected 6.0, likely 3.1–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11
    11. Week 14: expected 6.0, likely 3.1–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11
    12. Week 15: expected 6.3, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.7
    13. Week 16: expected 5.7, likely 3–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.5
    14. Week 17: expected 5.8, likely 3–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.7
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    On IR with a medial ankle sprain from Week 3; the earliest he can return is Week 8 against the Chargers, and Tyler Higbee (8-62-1 in Week 3) is the Rams' receiving TE for now (nbcsports.com). Before the injury he had 12 targets in three games. ESPN already has him at zero through Week 7, then about 6 points a week, far below replacement. Drop.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.9
    Above repl.
    -5.2
    Wks 14–17
    6.0
    Games
    9
    Kirkland Signature →

The analyst's notes

The first board of 2026 covers all 192 rostered players, with a projection for every week from 4 through 17 in our scoring. Tiers measure points per week above the best free agent at each position, so the waiver wire sets the scale: Deshaun Watson gives you 14.8 a week at QB, while the best free-agent back, Tyler Allgeier, gives you only 7.2. That gap shapes the whole board. Six of the top eight players are running backs, and Josh Allen projects for 22.3 a week, more than anyone but Gibbs, yet that's only 7.5 above Watson, which puts him in Tier 4 next to Kyren Williams.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Ankit's Awesome Team) is alone at the top. His 25.0 a week is 17.8 above replacement, just under the Tier 1 line. We moved him up because the next-best player, Bijan Robinson, is 5.0 points a week behind him. Tier 3 is Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase. Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the board at 23.0 per game, 2.5 above ESPN, on a league-high 37% target share.

Week 4 cost the board a lot of health, and those injuries are priced in even though the box scores aren't. Chase (concussion), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Ladd McConkey and Justin Jefferson are questionable for Week 5. Rashee Rice is out for Week 6 after the Chiefs' bye. Saquon Barkley is out for Week 5 and questionable for Weeks 6 and 7. Each take cites its source.

Big moves

This is the first edition, so nothing moved yet. These are the calls we're most confident in:

  • Saquon Barkley, 15.2 → 11.0 per game (Tier 6, sell). He had 34 carries and 3 catches through three weeks for 7.0 a game, before he strained his hamstring on his second carry of Week 4. FantasyCalc still values him at 4,765.
  • Isaiah Likely, 13.1 → 9.0 (Tier 7, sell). Jaxson Dart is out for the season. Likely scored 27.8 with Dart and 8.3 and 3.3 with Jameis Winston, so he's no better than T.J. Hockenson on waivers.
  • Big ESPN cuts: Carnell Tate 14.0 → 10.5, Tony Pollard 13.7 → 10.5 and Rhamondre Stevenson 12.2 → 8.5. All three are in bad offenses or committees, and their starts (8.4, 8.5 and a split with TreVeyon Henderson) back that up.
  • Raised above ESPN: Smith-Njigba 20.5 → 23.0, Dalton Kincaid 9.4 → 11.5 and Brock Bowers 15.2 → 16.5. Bowers had 13 targets and a 92% route rate in his debut.
  • Two projections we wrote ourselves. ESPN has Jonah Coleman and Jalen McMillan at zero all season. Both are on short-term IR: Coleman is eligible in Week 7 and McMillan has a 6–8 week timeline. We put them back in at 5.0 and 4.5 a game, which still leaves both in Tier 8. Isiah Pacheco stays at zero, since the only return estimate after his back surgery is a December guess.
  • Marcus Mariota has no value after Week 4. He re-injured his MCL, and Jayden Daniels is targeting Week 5. Daniels is a buy at FantasyCalc's 431.

Where we disagree with the market

Sells:

  • Kenneth Walker III (8,862). The market prices him like McCaffrey because of his 26.4-point start. We take him 0.9 under ESPN because Andy Reid says Emmett Johnson will get more snaps.
  • Brock Purdy (2,320). He's scoring 27.0 a game on a 9:1 TD:INT ratio that won't last. London Bridge rosters four starting QBs, so the surplus is trade bait.
  • A.J. Brown (2,840). The market prices a healthy WR1, but the ankle gives him roughly nine usable games.
  • Malik Nabers (2,984). He's at 7.2 a game with Winston throwing to him.
  • Omarion Hampton (3,016) and TreVeyon Henderson (1,799). Both are committee backs barely above replacement.
  • Colston Loveland (1,177). He's below the waiver wire while Caleb Williams' hamstring heals.

Buys:

  • Justin Jefferson (6,122). The market is discounting a mild ankle sprain.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,384). He's cheaper than Jeremiyah Love, D'Andre Swift and Barkley, but more valuable than all three while Jonathon Brooks is on IR.
  • Michael Wilson (2,069). His target share climbed to 34% in Week 3.
  • Josh Jacobs (1,291). The market is pricing in suspension risk, but he looks like an RB2 in the playoff weeks.
  • Tucker Kraft (997). He's still running a starter's routes.
  • Ollie Gordon II (520). He's Miami's lead back now that De'Von Achane has torn his ACL.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season, kickers and D/ST included. The starting point is ESPN's weekly projections, which ESPN already scores with our league's settings. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. In a one-QB, 12-team league the waiver wire always has a startable QB, kicker and D/ST, so those spots rank lower than their raw points suggest. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (12 teams, 1 QB, PPR). Projections: ESPN weekly projections, Weeks 4–17, in our league's scoring (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-05.