Week 3 Player Board: Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Only Tier 1, Saquon Barkley Lands in Tier 6

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 14.8 · RB 7.2 · WR 8.9 · TE 9.1 · K 8.4 · DEF 5.5

1. 1RBJahmyr GibbsDET · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold27.0ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 27.1, likely 18.4–34.6, 10th–90th percentile 15.4–394
   2. Week 5: expected 28.3, likely 19.3–36.3, 10th–90th percentile 16.1–40.85
   3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
   4. Week 7: expected 28.5, likely 19.4–36.5, 10th–90th percentile 16.2–417
   5. Week 8: expected 24.8, likely 16.9–31.8, 10th–90th percentile 14.1–35.78
   6. Week 9: expected 28.1, likely 19.1–36, 10th–90th percentile 16–40.59
   7. Week 10: expected 26.2, likely 17.8–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 14.9–37.710
   8. Week 11: expected 26.6, likely 18.1–34, 10th–90th percentile 15.1–38.311
   9. Week 12: expected 27.9, likely 19–35.7, 10th–90th percentile 15.8–40.212
   10. Week 13: expected 25.8, likely 17.5–33, 10th–90th percentile 14.6–37.113
   11. Week 14: expected 27.8, likely 18.9–35.6, 10th–90th percentile 15.8–40.114
   12. Week 15: expected 23.9, likely 16.3–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 13.6–34.415
   13. Week 16: expected 28.5, likely 19.4–36.5, 10th–90th percentile 16.2–4116
   14. Week 17: expected 27.0, likely 18.3–34.5, 10th–90th percentile 15.3–38.817

   Opened with 33.6, 23.3 and 41.4 (32.8 ppg), and nobody else in the Detroit backfield is taking a meaningful bite. ESPN's 26.1 already prices him as the RB1, so we only nudge up to 27. A Week 6 bye and 25.9 ESPN ppg for Weeks 14-17 make him the safest playoff anchor at the position. Hold, unless someone pays you like he's two players. Moved up one tier to T1: his 17.8 PAR sits at the cutoff, and nobody else gets his kind of uncontested workload.

   Why not the projection (26.1) Nudged above ESPN's 26.1 on a 32.8 ppg start with an uncontested workload.

   Tier

   1

   Per week

   25.0

   Above repl.

   +17.8

   Wks 14–17

   26.8

   Games

   13

   Ankit's Awesome Team →
2. 2RBBijan RobinsonATL · Hanging with HernandezHold21.5ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 22.1, likely 13.2–29.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–34.24
   2. Week 5: expected 21.4, likely 12.8–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–33.15
   3. Week 6: expected 22.5, likely 13.5–30.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–34.96
   4. Week 7: expected 20.9, likely 12.6–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.57
   5. Week 8: expected 20.6, likely 12.3–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.98
   6. Week 9: expected 21.7, likely 13–29.3, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.79
   7. Week 10: expected 20.9, likely 12.5–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.310
   8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
   9. Week 12: expected 19.0, likely 11.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–33.212
   10. Week 13: expected 23.5, likely 14.1–31.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–36.413
   11. Week 14: expected 21.2, likely 12.7–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–32.914
   12. Week 15: expected 21.9, likely 13.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–33.915
   13. Week 16: expected 21.3, likely 12.8–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–33.116
   14. Week 17: expected 22.9, likely 13.7–30.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–35.417

   Bijan scored 31.3 and 35.3 around a 11.1 dud in Week 2, when Atlanta was down to emergency QB play with Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) and Michael Penix Jr. (knee) both hurt and the game turned into a 34-3 blowout (espn.com). Elite three-down usage keeps his floor high whoever plays QB. Bye in Week 11, and ESPN has him at 21.2 for the playoff weeks. The QB mess is the only reason he isn't a tier higher.

   Why not the projection (20.9) Slightly above ESPN's 20.9 given a 25.9 ppg start that came despite the Falcons' QB injuries.

   Tier

   3

   Per week

   20.0

   Above repl.

   +12.8

   Wks 14–17

   21.8

   Games

   13

   Hanging with Hernandez →
3. 3RBChristian McCaffreySF · Abhinav's TeamHold19.5ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 19.8, likely 12.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.64
   2. Week 5: expected 18.0, likely 11.1–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–31.45
   3. Week 6: expected 20.9, likely 12.5–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–32.46
   4. Week 7: expected 19.3, likely 11.9–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–33.77
   5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
   6. Week 9: expected 20.6, likely 12.3–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.99
   7. Week 10: expected 20.6, likely 12.3–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.910
   8. Week 11: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–23, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–31.911
   9. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 11.5–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–32.412
   10. Week 13: expected 20.6, likely 12.3–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.913
   11. Week 14: expected 18.9, likely 11.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–33.114
   12. Week 15: expected 19.9, likely 12.3–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–34.915
   13. Week 16: expected 18.9, likely 11.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–33.116
   14. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 12.2–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.417

   Full practices, no injury tag going into Week 4, and at least 14 touches every game with three rushing TDs in two weeks (sports.yahoo.com). After a 13.8 opener he has 22.6 and 21.6. Bye Week 8, and he projects at 19.9 for Weeks 14-17. Age and injury history are the only reasons he isn't a buy.

   Tier

   3

   Per week

   18.1

   Above repl.

   +10.9

   Wks 14–17

   19.3

   Games

   13

   Abhinav's Team →
4. 4RBJonathan TaylorIND · I have a dreamHold19.5ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 20.5, likely 12.3–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–31.74
   2. Week 5: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–31.95
   3. Week 6: expected 20.7, likely 12.4–28, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–32.16
   4. Week 7: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.67
   5. Week 8: expected 17.8, likely 11–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.18
   6. Week 9: expected 21.0, likely 12.6–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–32.69
   7. Week 10: expected 21.8, likely 13.1–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 10–33.710
   8. Week 11: expected 17.8, likely 11–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.111
   9. Week 12: expected 21.3, likely 12.8–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–33.112
   10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
   11. Week 14: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–31.814
   12. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 12.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.615
   13. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 12.1–27.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–31.316
   14. Week 17: expected 19.3, likely 12–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–33.817

   Taylor has at least 19 carries every game and four TDs in three weeks, and his only limited practice was a rest day (sports.yahoo.com). Week 3's 9.2 came without a TD, and that's his floor in this offense. Bye Week 13, 19.3 ESPN ppg for the playoffs. A steady RB1 at a fair price.

   Tier

   3

   Per week

   18.1

   Above repl.

   +10.9

   Wks 14–17

   19.4

   Games

   13

   I have a dream →
5. 5RBKenneth Walker IIIKC · Abhinav's TeamSell19.5ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 19.6, likely 12.1–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 8–34.34
   2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
   3. Week 6: expected 20.6, likely 12.4–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–31.96
   4. Week 7: expected 17.4, likely 10.8–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–30.47
   5. Week 8: expected 18.7, likely 11.6–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–32.78
   6. Week 9: expected 20.3, likely 12.2–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–31.59
   7. Week 10: expected 19.1, likely 11.8–24, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–33.310
   8. Week 11: expected 22.0, likely 13.2–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–34.111
   9. Week 12: expected 19.8, likely 12.3–25, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.712
   10. Week 13: expected 17.9, likely 11.1–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.313
   11. Week 14: expected 19.7, likely 12.2–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.414
   12. Week 15: expected 19.9, likely 12.3–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–34.815
   13. Week 16: expected 19.2, likely 11.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–33.616
   14. Week 17: expected 19.8, likely 12.3–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–34.617

   Walker's 26.4 ppg start came on 56 touches in the first two weeks. Then Andy Reid said rookie Emmett Johnson 'will continue to get more snaps' to take load off him (sports.yahoo.com), and Week 3 came in at 21.3. We're a point below ESPN's 20.4 because the share is going to fall. Market price (8,862) is CMC money for a back whose coach just told you his volume is peaking. Sell.

   Why not the projection (20.4) Below ESPN's 20.4 because Andy Reid has publicly committed to more snaps for Emmett Johnson.

   Tier

   3

   Per week

   18.1

   Above repl.

   +10.9

   Wks 14–17

   19.7

   Games

   13

   Abhinav's Team →
6. 6RBDerrick HenryBAL · Kirkland SignatureHold19.0ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 19.6, likely 10.3–26, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–384
   2. Week 5: expected 18.3, likely 9.6–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35.55
   3. Week 6: expected 19.1, likely 10–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–376
   4. Week 7: expected 19.9, likely 10.4–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–38.57
   5. Week 8: expected 19.1, likely 10–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–378
   6. Week 9: expected 18.2, likely 9.5–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35.29
   7. Week 10: expected 20.0, likely 10–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.810
   8. Week 11: expected 19.7, likely 10.3–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–38.111
   9. Week 12: expected 17.4, likely 9.1–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.712
   10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
   11. Week 14: expected 19.2, likely 10.1–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–37.314
   12. Week 15: expected 17.8, likely 9.4–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.615
   13. Week 16: expected 20.1, likely 10–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.916
   14. Week 17: expected 18.9, likely 9.9–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 5–36.617

   Henry is Baltimore's workhorse with a 25 ppg start (35.3, 17.7, 21.9), but in full PPR he catches almost nothing, so weeks without a TD land in the mid-teens. Lamar Jackson hurt his ankle in Week 4 and is called day-to-day (baltimoreravens.com). A Lamar absence would let defenses load the box on Henry. Bye Week 13, solid 19.7 playoff projection. Hold.

   Why not the projection (19.7) A touch under ESPN on thin receiving work in a PPR league plus Lamar Jackson's ankle.

   Tier

   3

   Per week

   17.7

   Above repl.

   +10.5

   Wks 14–17

   19.0

   Games

   13

   Kirkland Signature →
7. 7RBJames Cook IIIBUF · Team Cash Money SquaHold17.0ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.64
   2. Week 5: expected 15.4, likely 9.6–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–275
   3. Week 6: expected 17.2, likely 10.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 7–30.16
   4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
   5. Week 8: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.68
   6. Week 9: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.69
   7. Week 10: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.510
   8. Week 11: expected 18.9, likely 11.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–3311
   9. Week 12: expected 16.5, likely 10.2–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–28.912
   10. Week 13: expected 16.5, likely 10.3–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–2913
   11. Week 14: expected 17.7, likely 11–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–3114
   12. Week 15: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–31.815
   13. Week 16: expected 16.2, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.416
   14. Week 17: expected 18.2, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–31.817

   The Bills have made Cook the bell cow. Ray Davis played five offensive snaps in Week 3 and Ty Johnson is the only other back involved (rotowire.com). After a 9.9 opener he's put up 20.9 and 19.4. ESPN likes him most for the playoffs (18.1 ppg Weeks 14-17). Bye Week 7. Hold.

   Tier

   4

   Per week

   15.8

   Above repl.

   +8.6

   Wks 14–17

   17.6

   Games

   13

   Team Cash Money Squa →
8. 8RBAshton JeantyLV · Los Angeles LesbiansHold16.5ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 17.9, likely 11.1–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.34
   2. Week 5: expected 16.4, likely 10.2–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–28.75
   3. Week 6: expected 17.9, likely 11.1–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–31.36
   4. Week 7: expected 16.1, likely 10–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.27
   5. Week 8: expected 16.9, likely 10.4–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.58
   6. Week 9: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.39
   7. Week 10: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.110
   8. Week 11: expected 15.3, likely 9.5–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–26.811
   9. Week 12: expected 16.1, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.112
   10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
   11. Week 14: expected 16.8, likely 10.4–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.314
   12. Week 15: expected 15.9, likely 9.8–20, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.815
   13. Week 16: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.616
   14. Week 17: expected 17.4, likely 10.8–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–30.417

   20+ touches in all three games, but he's at 3.3 yards per carry and hasn't scored on the ground (cbssports.com). His 18.4 ppg leans on two Week 1 receiving TDs. Behind the Raiders line the volume is real and the efficiency isn't, so we come in under ESPN's 17.4. Bye Week 13. Hold. Don't buy the name.

   Why not the projection (17.4) Below ESPN's 17.4: the volume is bell-cow but 3.3 YPC and no rushing TDs cap the ceiling.

   Tier

   4

   Per week

   15.3

   Above repl.

   +8.1

   Wks 14–17

   16.8

   Games

   13

   Los Angeles Lesbians →
9. 9RBJavonte WilliamsDAL · Ari's Astounding TeamHold16.0ppg

   1. Week 4: expected 14.0, likely 8.7–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–24.54
   2. Week 5: expected 16.2, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.45
   3. Week 6: expected 16.8, likely 10.4–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–29.56
   4. Week 7: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.77
   5. Week 8: expected 18.1, likely 11.2–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–31.78
   6. Week 9: expected 16.7, likely 10.4–21, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29.29
   7. Week 10: expected 15.7, likely 9.7–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.510
   8. Week 11: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 7–29.911
   9. Week 12: expected 15.9, likely 9.9–20, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.812
   10. Week 13: expected 14.1, likely 8.7–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.613
   11. Week 14: bye or not projected14
   12. Week 15: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.415
   13. Week 16: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.316
   14. Week 17: expected 17.6, likely 10.9–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–30.817

   Dallas's lead back put up 24.2, 8 and 18.3. The Week 2 dud was 2.5 yards per carry with no score (espn.com). His weeks swing with whether he scores, but the touches are steady. Bye Week 14 lands in the playoffs, a real knock if you're a contender. Small trim from ESPN's 16.6.

   Why not the projection (16.6) Small trim from ESPN for TD dependence; Week 14 bye noted for playoff managers.

   Tier

   4

   Per week

   14.8

   Above repl.

   +7.6

   Wks 14–17

   11.9

   Games

   13

   Ari's Astounding Team →
10. 10RBKyren WilliamsLAR · Horus St. BrownHold15.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.84
    2. Week 5: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.35
    3. Week 6: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–306
    4. Week 7: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.27
    5. Week 8: expected 16.1, likely 10–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.18
    6. Week 9: expected 15.9, likely 9.8–20, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.89
    7. Week 10: expected 16.6, likely 10.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–2910
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 16.7, likely 10.3–21, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29.112
    10. Week 13: expected 15.1, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.513
    11. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.714
    12. Week 15: expected 16.6, likely 10.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–2915
    13. Week 16: expected 13.8, likely 7.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–2616
    14. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.217

    McVay has meant it about splitting carries: through Week 2, Kyren had 23 carries to Blake Corum's 22 (sports.yahoo.com). Kyren is still at 17.7 ppg. A true 50/50 split caps the ceiling, which puts us a point under ESPN's 16.7. Bye Week 11.

    Why not the projection (16.7) A point below ESPN because Corum is getting close to half the carries.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    14.4

    Above repl.

    +7.2

    Wks 14–17

    15.0

    Games

    13

    Horus St. Brown →
11. 11RBChase BrownCIN · Marvins RoomHold15.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.94
    2. Week 5: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.75
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.17
    5. Week 8: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.38
    6. Week 9: expected 14.6, likely 9–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.59
    7. Week 10: expected 14.8, likely 9.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–25.910
    8. Week 11: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.611
    9. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.712
    10. Week 13: expected 14.8, likely 9.2–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–25.913
    11. Week 14: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.314
    12. Week 15: expected 15.1, likely 9.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.415
    13. Week 16: expected 15.3, likely 9.5–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–26.816
    14. Week 17: expected 14.8, likely 9.2–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–25.917

    13, 11.2 and 8.9 — trending the wrong way. Week 3 brought season lows in carries and targets (13 and 2) even though he played 71% of snaps, and Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) both got hurt (fantasypros.com). The role is fine. The offense around him is leaking. We're two points under ESPN's 17.1 until production catches up. Bye Week 6.

    Why not the projection (17.1) Two points below ESPN's 17.1 after a 13 ppg start with falling volume and Cincinnati's top two WRs hurt.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    13.9

    Above repl.

    +6.7

    Wks 14–17

    14.9

    Games

    13

    Marvins Room →
12. 12RBChuba HubbardCAR · I have a dreamBuy15.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 16.6, likely 10.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–29.14
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.96
    4. Week 7: expected 15.1, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.57
    5. Week 8: expected 15.7, likely 9.7–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.48
    6. Week 9: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–269
    7. Week 10: expected 15.5, likely 9.6–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.210
    8. Week 11: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.211
    9. Week 12: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.412
    10. Week 13: expected 13.3, likely 6.9–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–2513
    11. Week 14: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.314
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.415
    13. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.116
    14. Week 17: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.817

    Hubbard is the workhorse: 84% of snaps and 82% of backfield opportunities in Week 3, with Jonathon Brooks on IR for 6-8 weeks with a core injury (fantasyfootballcalculator.com). He's at 17.7 ppg, so 15 is conservative and assumes Brooks takes some work back around Weeks 9-11. A Week 5 bye means no conflict with the playoffs. At 3,384 he's cheaper than backs we rank below him.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    13.9

    Above repl.

    +6.7

    Wks 14–17

    15.0

    Games

    13

    I have a dream →
13. 13RBJeremiyah LoveARI · London BridgeHold14.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 16.6, likely 10.3–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–294
    2. Week 5: expected 16.0, likely 9.9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–285
    3. Week 6: expected 13.0, likely 6.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.56
    4. Week 7: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.97
    5. Week 8: expected 14.9, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.28
    6. Week 9: expected 12.6, likely 6.6–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.79
    7. Week 10: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.610
    8. Week 11: expected 13.4, likely 7–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.311
    9. Week 12: expected 15.4, likely 9.6–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–2712
    10. Week 13: expected 14.3, likely 8.8–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.913
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    12. Week 15: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.115
    13. Week 16: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.216
    14. Week 17: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.617

    The rookie took over in Week 3: 52 snaps to Tyler Allgeier's 30, 26 touches and 21.9 points (espn.com, si.com). In Weeks 1-2 he was at 43% of snaps, so the arrow points up and we go a point above ESPN's 13.6. The market (5,193) already prices that breakout and more. Bye Week 14 lands in the playoffs.

    Why not the projection (13.6) Above ESPN's 13.6 because his snap share jumped from 43% to over 60% in Week 3.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    13.5

    Above repl.

    +6.3

    Wks 14–17

    11.3

    Games

    13

    London Bridge →
14. 14RBD'Andre SwiftCHI · Horus St. BrownHold14.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.64
    2. Week 5: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–255
    3. Week 6: expected 13.0, likely 6.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.56
    4. Week 7: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.67
    5. Week 8: expected 11.8, likely 6.1–16, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.18
    6. Week 9: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.69
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: expected 14.6, likely 9.1–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.611
    9. Week 12: expected 14.4, likely 8.9–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.212
    10. Week 13: expected 13.1, likely 6.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.513
    11. Week 14: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.414
    12. Week 15: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.615
    13. Week 16: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.816
    14. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.217

    A Thursday knee scare turned into a full Friday practice and a clean Week 4 tag. He's had at least 19 opportunities in every game (nbcsports.com). His 18.7 ppg is inflated by a 32.4 opener, and Kyle Monangai is a capable backup. Still, the volume deserves a point over ESPN's 13.0. Bye Week 10.

    Why not the projection (13.0) A point above ESPN's 13.0 for at least 19 opportunities in every game.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    13.0

    Above repl.

    +5.8

    Wks 14–17

    14.5

    Games

    13

    Horus St. Brown →
15. 15RBBhayshul TutenJAX · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold13.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 12.9, likely 6.7–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.24
    2. Week 5: expected 12.9, likely 6.7–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.35
    3. Week 6: expected 12.7, likely 6.6–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.86
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: expected 14.5, likely 9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.38
    6. Week 9: expected 12.7, likely 6.6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–249
    7. Week 10: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.710
    8. Week 11: expected 14.1, likely 8.7–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.711
    9. Week 12: expected 14.3, likely 8.8–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–2512
    10. Week 13: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.813
    11. Week 14: expected 13.4, likely 6.9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–25.114
    12. Week 15: expected 12.4, likely 6.4–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.315
    13. Week 16: expected 13.8, likely 7.2–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–25.916
    14. Week 17: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.917

    Tuten has won the Jacksonville job, out-touching Chris Rodriguez 13-6 in Week 2 (draftsharks.com). 9.8, 14.2 and 17 — trending up. In line with ESPN at 13.5. The Week 7 bye is early, and his playoff projection (13.2) is steady.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    12.5

    Above repl.

    +5.3

    Wks 14–17

    13.5

    Games

    13

    Ankit's Awesome Team →
16. 16RBBucky IrvingTB · Free WinHold13.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.84
    2. Week 5: expected 12.9, likely 6.7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.35
    3. Week 6: expected 12.3, likely 6.4–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23.16
    4. Week 7: expected 13.2, likely 6.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.77
    5. Week 8: expected 12.8, likely 6.7–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.18
    6. Week 9: expected 13.1, likely 6.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.69
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: expected 13.6, likely 7.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.611
    9. Week 12: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.812
    10. Week 13: expected 13.4, likely 7–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–25.213
    11. Week 14: expected 12.2, likely 6.3–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–2314
    12. Week 15: expected 13.8, likely 7.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–2615
    13. Week 16: expected 12.2, likely 6.4–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–2316
    14. Week 17: expected 12.0, likely 6.3–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.617

    A glute issue limited him in practice, but he's off the report. The real problem is Baker Mayfield's dislocated throwing thumb, which leaves an 0-3 offense with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for about three weeks (cbssports.com, si.com). Bucky's carries have been 8, 17 and 15, and Kenneth Gainwell takes a share. We're two points under ESPN's 15.1 until Mayfield is back, which the team targets for Week 7 (October 25). Bye Week 10.

    Why not the projection (15.1) Two points under ESPN while Tampa plays an undrafted rookie QB and Gainwell splits work.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    12.1

    Above repl.

    +4.9

    Wks 14–17

    12.6

    Games

    13

    Free Win →
17. 17RBBreece HallNYJ · Los Angeles LesbiansHold14.5ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: expected 7.4, likely 0–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.1 (questionable)5
    3. Week 6: expected 13.7, likely 7.1–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.76
    4. Week 7: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–27.67
    5. Week 8: expected 14.9, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.28
    6. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 6.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.99
    7. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–26.210
    8. Week 11: expected 14.3, likely 8.8–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.911
    9. Week 12: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.612
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    11. Week 14: expected 14.0, likely 7.3–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–26.214
    12. Week 15: expected 15.4, likely 9.5–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–26.915
    13. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–2516
    14. Week 17: expected 13.1, likely 6.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.617

    A quad injury in Week 3 is called week-to-week after an MRI with 'good news', and the hope is he avoids IR (nbcsports.com). Before that he was at 3.2 yards per carry (51 for 163) and played only 57.5% of snaps (si.com). ESPN already zeroes Week 4. We add Week 5 as questionable and set him at 14.5, under ESPN's 16.3, because Braelon Allen keeps a share. Bye Week 13.

    Why not the projection (16.3) Under ESPN's 16.3 on a 14.2 ppg start and a 57.5% snap share; Week 5 questionable with the week-to-week quad.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    11.9

    Above repl.

    +4.7

    Wks 14–17

    14.2

    Games

    11.5

    Los Angeles Lesbians →
18. 18RBJaylen WarrenPIT · Hanging with HernandezHold12.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 14.1, likely 8.8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.74
    2. Week 5: expected 13.2, likely 6.9–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.85
    3. Week 6: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.46
    4. Week 7: expected 12.9, likely 6.7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.37
    5. Week 8: expected 12.8, likely 6.6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–248
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    7. Week 10: expected 12.3, likely 6.4–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23.110
    8. Week 11: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–2211
    9. Week 12: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.812
    10. Week 13: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.513
    11. Week 14: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.714
    12. Week 15: expected 12.3, likely 6.4–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–23.115
    13. Week 16: expected 13.0, likely 6.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.516
    14. Week 17: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.517

    Warren's 20.6 in Week 3 came with Rico Dowdle (toe) out: 53 of 59 RB snaps. NFL Network says there's 'a pretty good chance' Dowdle is back in Week 5 (nbcsports.com). With Dowdle playing, Warren scored 10.3 and 9.7. ESPN's 15.0 treats Warren as the bell cow, and that likely ends in Week 5. Bye Week 9.

    Why not the projection (15.0) Below ESPN's 15.0 because Dowdle is expected back in Week 5 and Warren was at about 10 ppg when they split.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    11.6

    Above repl.

    +4.4

    Wks 14–17

    12.3

    Games

    13

    Hanging with Hernandez →
19. 19RBCam SkatteboNYG · Hanging with HernandezHold12.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 15.1, likely 9.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–26.44
    2. Week 5: expected 12.4, likely 6.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.45
    3. Week 6: expected 13.2, likely 6.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–24.96
    4. Week 7: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.67
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.39
    7. Week 10: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.510
    8. Week 11: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.911
    9. Week 12: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.812
    10. Week 13: expected 11.3, likely 5.9–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.213
    11. Week 14: expected 9.9, likely 5.1–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.514
    12. Week 15: expected 12.2, likely 6.4–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–2315
    13. Week 16: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.516
    14. Week 17: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.717

    Tyrone Tracy Jr. (knee) went from no practice to full practice going into Week 4 (giants.com), so the Giants' two-back split is back. Skattebo's 12.2 ppg is steady, with short-yardage and goal-line work. A small trim from ESPN's 12.8. Bye Week 8.

    Why not the projection (12.8) A small trim from ESPN now that Tracy is healthy.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    11.2

    Above repl.

    +4.0

    Wks 14–17

    11.7

    Games

    13

    Hanging with Hernandez →
20. 20RBQuinshon JudkinsCLE · London BridgeHold12.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.24
    2. Week 5: expected 11.8, likely 6.2–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.25
    3. Week 6: expected 12.0, likely 6.2–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.56
    4. Week 7: expected 12.2, likely 6.3–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.97
    5. Week 8: expected 11.3, likely 5.9–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.28
    6. Week 9: expected 12.4, likely 6.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.49
    7. Week 10: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.710
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 12.6, likely 6.6–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.712
    10. Week 13: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.513
    11. Week 14: expected 12.0, likely 6.2–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.514
    12. Week 15: expected 12.6, likely 6.6–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.715
    13. Week 16: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.516
    14. Week 17: expected 13.0, likely 6.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–24.417

    Dylan Sampson's knee injury put him on IR for at least four weeks (profootballrumors.com), so Judkins is the lead back. The volume hasn't turned into points yet: 7, 9.8 and 9.9 behind a weak Browns offense, with Raheim Sanders taking passing-down work. 12 is the middle ground between his 8.9 actual and ESPN's 13.9. Bye Week 11.

    Why not the projection (13.9) Below ESPN's 13.9 because he's scored under 10 every week despite lead-back volume.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    11.2

    Above repl.

    +4.0

    Wks 14–17

    12.3

    Games

    13

    London Bridge →
21. 21RBAaron Jones Sr.MIN · Horus St. BrownSell11.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 16.1, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–28.14
    2. Week 5: expected 15.5, likely 9.6–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.15
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.87
    5. Week 8: expected 11.0, likely 5.7–15, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.78
    6. Week 9: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.59
    7. Week 10: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.410
    8. Week 11: expected 10.1, likely 5.3–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–1911
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.512
    10. Week 13: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.513
    11. Week 14: expected 10.1, likely 5.3–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–1914
    12. Week 15: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.415
    13. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.616
    14. Week 17: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.517

    Jordan Mason's broken thumb (IR) makes Jones the bell cow until Week 7 (si.com). He's playing in a knee brace and Minnesota is managing his practices (espn.com). Even as the bell cow he's at 11.6 ppg (17 carries for 58 in Week 3, si.com). ESPN's 18-point projections for Weeks 4-5 are the peak, then Mason is back after the Week 6 bye. Sell before Mason returns.

    Why not the projection (12.9) Under ESPN's 12.9 (which ESPN props up with 18-point Weeks 4-5): he scored 11.6 ppg as the bell cow, and Mason returns Week 7.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    10.7

    Above repl.

    +3.5

    Wks 14–17

    10.7

    Games

    13

    Horus St. Brown →
22. 22RBDavid MontgomeryHOU · Ari's Astounding TeamSell10.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 11.5, likely 4.6–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–24.14
    2. Week 5: expected 10.6, likely 4.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–22.35
    3. Week 6: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.36
    4. Week 7: expected 11.5, likely 4.6–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–24.37
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: expected 10.4, likely 4.2–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 1–21.99
    7. Week 10: expected 10.4, likely 4.1–15, 10th–90th percentile 1–21.810
    8. Week 11: expected 11.4, likely 4.6–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–23.911
    9. Week 12: expected 10.4, likely 4.1–15, 10th–90th percentile 1–21.812
    10. Week 13: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.313
    11. Week 14: expected 10.7, likely 4.3–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–22.514
    12. Week 15: expected 9.9, likely 4–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.915
    13. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.316
    14. Week 17: expected 10.9, likely 4.4–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–22.917

    After a 28.9 opener he scored 4.4 and 6.8. In Week 2 he got a 33% rush share and a 3.6% target share, with Woody Marks splitting the red-zone carries (fantasypros.com). Houston is a committee and Montgomery isn't getting the targets. We're nearly two points under ESPN's 12.3, and every week depends on a TD. The Week 8 bye is fine.

    Why not the projection (12.3) Below ESPN's 12.3 because Woody Marks is taking a share of carries and red-zone work.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    9.8

    Above repl.

    +2.6

    Wks 14–17

    10.3

    Games

    13

    Ari's Astounding Team →
23. 23RBOllie Gordon IIMIA · Ankit's Awesome TeamBuy10.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.14
    2. Week 5: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.25
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: expected 10.1, likely 5.2–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–197
    5. Week 8: expected 10.3, likely 5.4–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.48
    6. Week 9: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–21.99
    7. Week 10: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.110
    8. Week 11: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.611
    9. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 5.5–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–2012
    10. Week 13: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.713
    11. Week 14: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.814
    12. Week 15: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.315
    13. Week 16: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.416
    14. Week 17: expected 11.0, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.617

    De'Von Achane's torn ACL ends his season (nbcsports.com), and Gordon is expected to lead Miami in touches from here. Analysts warn it won't look like Achane's role, with Jaylen Wright in the mix and Malik Willis running at QB (profootballnetwork.com). Lead-back touches plus a receiving role are worth about 10.5 in full PPR, near ESPN's 11. At 520 market value he costs almost nothing. Bye Week 6.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    9.7

    Above repl.

    +2.5

    Wks 14–17

    10.9

    Games

    13

    Ankit's Awesome Team →
24. 24RBTony PollardTEN · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold10.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–174
    2. Week 5: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.85
    3. Week 6: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.46
    4. Week 7: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.67
    5. Week 8: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.68
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    7. Week 10: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.810
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.311
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 5–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–17.912
    10. Week 13: expected 11.2, likely 5.8–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–2113
    11. Week 14: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.914
    12. Week 15: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.315
    13. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 5.5–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.816
    14. Week 17: expected 10.3, likely 5.4–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.417

    Pollard's ankle cleared before Week 4 and he leads the backfield, with Tyjae Spears getting three touches in Week 3. But the Titans offense is unproductive and makes him 'only a moderate FLEX' (nbcsports.com). He's at 8.5 ppg (4.4, 7.5, 13.6), and we take him three points under ESPN's 13.7 because the offense caps him. Bye Week 9.

    Why not the projection (13.7) Three points below ESPN on an 8.5 ppg start in a bad Titans offense.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    9.7

    Above repl.

    +2.5

    Wks 14–17

    10.8

    Games

    13

    Ankit's Awesome Team →
25. 25RBOmarion HamptonLAC · Team Cash Money SquaSell9.6ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.14
    2. Week 5: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.25
    3. Week 6: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.96
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: expected 8.7, likely 4.5–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.38
    6. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.89
    7. Week 10: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.510
    8. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.311
    9. Week 12: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.712
    10. Week 13: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.713
    11. Week 14: expected 10.0, likely 5.2–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.714
    12. Week 15: expected 9.5, likely 5–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–17.915
    13. Week 16: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.116
    14. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–17.917

    The first-round pedigree is doing the heavy lifting: Hampton played under 45% of snaps in Week 3 as the Chargers got more comfortable using Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal in high-leverage spots (heavy.com), and he's at 10.5 PPG behind an 0-3 offense averaging under 4.0 yards a carry. He's still the early-down lead, so the floor is a flex, but Mitchell's snaps went from 17 to 26 and the passing-down work is leaving with them. Weeks 14-17 look fine on ESPN's sheet (11.1), but that assumes a role he's currently losing.

    Why not the projection (10.7) Trimmed about a point from ESPN because Week 3 showed a three-way split with Mitchell and Vidal eating into his snaps and receiving work.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    8.9

    Above repl.

    +1.7

    Wks 14–17

    9.9

    Games

    13

    Team Cash Money Squa →
26. 26RBSaquon BarkleyPHI · Marvins Room · out Wk 5Sell11.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 10.4, likely 5.4–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.54
    2. Week 5: out5
    3. Week 6: expected 5.8, likely 0–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.9 (questionable)6
    4. Week 7: expected 5.8, likely 0–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.8 (questionable)7
    5. Week 8: expected 11.1, likely 5.7–15, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.88
    6. Week 9: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.49
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.411
    9. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.912
    10. Week 13: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–2213
    11. Week 14: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–2214
    12. Week 15: expected 9.9, likely 5.1–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.615
    13. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 5.5–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.716
    14. Week 17: expected 10.1, likely 5.2–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.917

    Two injuries in three games. He left Week 2 with a stinger and has played in neck padding since (inquirer.com), then strained his hamstring on his second carry of Week 4 and was ruled out (nbcsports.com). No timeline yet (espn.com). Even before that, he had 34 carries and 3 catches through three games: 7 ppg with no tush-push TDs and almost no receiving. We have him out Week 5 and questionable Weeks 6-7, then at 11 ppg, way under ESPN's 15.2. The market (4,765) is still paying for the name.

    Why not the projection (15.2) Down from ESPN's 15.2 to 11 on a 7 ppg start and almost no receiving role; out Week 5 and questionable Weeks 6-7 for the Week 4 hamstring.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    8.6

    Above repl.

    +1.4

    Wks 14–17

    10.6

    Games

    11

    Marvins Room →
27. 27RBJosh JacobsGB · Kirkland SignatureBuy14.0ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: expected 7.5, likely 0–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.3 (questionable)8
    6. Week 9: expected 13.4, likely 6.9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–25.19
    7. Week 10: expected 12.8, likely 6.6–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–2410
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 12.4, likely 6.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.412
    10. Week 13: expected 14.4, likely 8.9–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–25.213
    11. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 6–25.614
    12. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–27.315
    13. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 8.8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–24.916
    14. Week 17: expected 13.4, likely 7–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–25.217

    Jacobs has been on the Commissioner's Exempt list since late August after pleading no contest to misdemeanor battery and property-damage charges (sports.yahoo.com); ESPN's Jeremy Fowler expects a 4-6 game ban, and exempt-list games count toward it, with a ruling likely by mid-October (oddsshopper.com). ESPN starts him in Week 8, a reasonable middle case, and he could be back as early as Weeks 6-7 if the league credits time served. I've marked Week 8 questionable because an 8-game ban is possible. On return he takes back a backfield that MarShawn Lloyd hasn't secured, and he's a 14-point back for the playoff weeks (ESPN W14-17: 13.4). Moved up one tier from base T6 because all of his value lands in Weeks 8-17, when it counts.

    Why not the projection (13.0) ppg above ESPN's 13.0 because he was a 13-TD workhorse in 2025 and no Packers back has claimed the job; Week 8 questionable in case the suspension runs past six games.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    8.5

    Above repl.

    +1.3

    Wks 14–17

    14.5

    Games

    8.5

    Kirkland Signature →
28. 28RBTreVeyon HendersonNE · Abhinav's TeamSell9.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.44
    2. Week 5: expected 9.4, likely 3.8–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.75
    3. Week 6: expected 9.2, likely 3.7–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.36
    4. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 3.6–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.17
    5. Week 8: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 1–208
    6. Week 9: expected 9.7, likely 3.9–14, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.39
    7. Week 10: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.210
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 8.9, likely 3.5–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.612
    10. Week 13: expected 9.3, likely 3.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.513
    11. Week 14: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–1714
    12. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 3.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.115
    13. Week 16: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.316
    14. Week 17: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.317

    Henderson took the lead from Rhamondre Stevenson once he came back from his Week 1 ankle injury (16-76-1 in Week 2), then went 8 carries for 23 yards in Week 3 while the two backs combined for 45 rushing yards against Jacksonville (sports.yahoo.com). The talent is real, but in a committee where Stevenson still catches passes, his weeks will swing between 13.6 and 3.9. A flex with upside, priced like more than that.

    Why not the projection (9.8) Shaded under ESPN because the Stevenson split is still unsettled and the Week 3 dud is as likely as the Week 2 spike.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    8.4

    Above repl.

    +1.2

    Wks 14–17

    8.4

    Games

    13

    Abhinav's Team →
29. 29RBZach CharbonnetSEA · Marvins RoomHold11.0ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: expected 5.1, likely 0–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.7 (questionable)6
    4. Week 7: expected 10.6, likely 5.5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 3–19.97
    5. Week 8: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.78
    6. Week 9: expected 12.2, likely 6.3–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.99
    7. Week 10: expected 10.9, likely 5.7–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.510
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–19.112
    10. Week 13: expected 11.7, likely 6.1–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–2213
    11. Week 14: expected 11.8, likely 6.1–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.214
    12. Week 15: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.315
    13. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 5.3–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.316
    14. Week 17: expected 11.1, likely 5.8–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–20.917

    Seattle opened Charbonnet's 21-day PUP practice window on Oct 1, and he has to miss at least one more game; the team has been vague on how much of the window it will use, and his left quad is still visibly smaller than his right eight months after the ACL tear (nbcsports.com). With Jadarian Price on IR until Week 8 and Emanuel Wilson averaging 3.4 yards a carry (sports.yahoo.com), he should walk into lead work for Weeks 6-7, then split with Price, who has had fumble problems. Week 6 is marked questionable for the ramp-up, and I've shaded his ppg below ESPN's because a back coming off an ACL usually takes a few weeks to get to full speed.

    Why not the projection (12.6) ppg is 1.6 under ESPN because he's coming off a January ACL tear with a visibly weaker quad and will share with Price after Week 8; Week 6 is questionable because the activation date is open.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    8.3

    Above repl.

    +1.1

    Wks 14–17

    10.8

    Games

    10.5

    Marvins Room →
30. 30RBRhamondre StevensonNE · I have a dreamSell8.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.24
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.55
    3. Week 6: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.26
    4. Week 7: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.17
    5. Week 8: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.88
    6. Week 9: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–179
    7. Week 10: expected 9.1, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–17.110
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.812
    10. Week 13: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.513
    11. Week 14: expected 7.7, likely 4–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.514
    12. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.815
    13. Week 16: expected 8.3, likely 4.3–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.616
    14. Week 17: expected 8.2, likely 4.3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.417

    TreVeyon Henderson took the lead in Week 2 (16 carries for 76 and a TD) and out-carried Stevenson again in Week 3 (cbssports.com). Stevenson scored 3.6 and 6.8 and is 'in the danger zone' (si.com). We cut nearly four points from ESPN's 12.2. A bench back now. Bye Week 11.

    Why not the projection (12.2) Nearly four points below ESPN because Henderson has taken the lead role.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.9

    Above repl.

    +0.7

    Wks 14–17

    8.0

    Games

    13

    I have a dream →
31. 31RBJacory Croskey-MerrittWSH · Free WinHold8.4ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.24
    2. Week 5: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.45
    3. Week 6: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–146
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.28
    6. Week 9: expected 7.7, likely 4–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.49
    7. Week 10: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.510
    8. Week 11: expected 8.7, likely 4.5–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.311
    9. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–1712
    10. Week 13: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.813
    11. Week 14: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.814
    12. Week 15: expected 8.3, likely 4.3–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.615
    13. Week 16: expected 7.1, likely 3.7–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.316
    14. Week 17: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–10, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.817

    With Rachaad White's shoulder injury keeping him out of Week 4 and making him questionable for Week 5 (nbcsports.com), Croskey-Merritt is the early-down lead for now. Washington re-signed Austin Ekeler for third downs, which caps his receiving work. Once White is healthy it's a three-man rotation, and his 7.9 PPG with White in the lineup is the more honest number for the rest of the season.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.8

    Above repl.

    +0.6

    Wks 14–17

    7.7

    Games

    13

    Free Win →
32. 32RBKyle MonangaiCHI · Los Angeles LesbiansBuy8.8ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.64
    2. Week 5: expected 4.6, likely 0–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–15.3 (questionable)5
    3. Week 6: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.56
    4. Week 7: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.47
    5. Week 8: expected 7.5, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.78
    6. Week 9: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.39
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: expected 9.4, likely 3.7–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.711
    9. Week 12: expected 9.2, likely 3.7–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.312
    10. Week 13: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.513
    11. Week 14: expected 9.3, likely 3.7–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.514
    12. Week 15: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.315
    13. Week 16: expected 9.5, likely 3.8–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–19.916
    14. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 3.8–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 1–20.117

    Monangai left Week 4 against the Jets late with a thumb injury that Ben Johnson said is being evaluated (heavy.com), so Week 5 at Green Bay is questionable. The bigger story is D'Andre Swift's knee, which cost him practice the week before (nbcsports.com); every Swift absence makes Monangai a must-start. He's at 711 on FantasyCalc, which is cheap for the best contingent back in a run-first offense, if the thumb turns out to be a sprain.

    Why not the projection (9.2) Week 5 questionable for the thumb injury still under evaluation.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.8

    Above repl.

    +0.6

    Wks 14–17

    9.3

    Games

    12.5

    Los Angeles Lesbians →
33. 33RBJ.K. DobbinsDEN · Marvins RoomHold8.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 7.5, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–15.84
    2. Week 5: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.85
    3. Week 6: expected 7.1, likely 2.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–156
    4. Week 7: expected 8.7, likely 3.5–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–18.37
    5. Week 8: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.18
    6. Week 9: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.49
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: expected 8.5, likely 3.4–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–17.911
    9. Week 12: expected 7.5, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.712
    10. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 3.6–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–1913
    11. Week 14: expected 7.9, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.514
    12. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 3.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.915
    13. Week 16: expected 8.4, likely 3.4–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.616
    14. Week 17: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.117

    Dobbins is Denver's early-down back but barely catches passes, and he's at 4.5 ppg (3.6, 3.6, 6.3). A hip injury was a full-practice non-issue going into Week 4 (nbcsports.com). Without targets or efficiency he's a TD-or-bust bench back. We have him at 8, under ESPN's 10.7. Bye Week 10.

    Why not the projection (10.7) Nearly three points under ESPN because he's scored 4.5 ppg with no receiving role.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.5

    Above repl.

    +0.3

    Wks 14–17

    8.0

    Games

    13

    Marvins Room →
34. 34RBRJ HarveyDEN · Abhinav's TeamHold8.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 7.2, likely 3.8–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.64
    2. Week 5: expected 8.0, likely 4.2–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–15.15
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.36
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.87
    5. Week 8: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.98
    6. Week 9: expected 8.0, likely 4.2–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–159
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.311
    9. Week 12: expected 7.8, likely 4–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.612
    10. Week 13: expected 8.5, likely 4.4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–1613
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 4.1–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.914
    12. Week 15: expected 8.0, likely 4.2–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–1515
    13. Week 16: expected 8.3, likely 4.3–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.716
    14. Week 17: expected 7.8, likely 4–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.617

    Harvey is Denver's passing-down specialist. He missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and isn't the early-down back (profootballnetwork.com). In full PPR that's a fringe flex: 8 when healthy, not ESPN's 11.2. Bye Week 10.

    Why not the projection (11.2) Three points under ESPN because he's a receiving specialist behind Dobbins and only gets a couple of carries.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.4

    Above repl.

    +0.2

    Wks 14–17

    8.0

    Games

    13

    Abhinav's Team →
35. 35RBTravis Etienne Jr.NO · Kirkland SignatureHold11.5ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: expected 11.6, likely 6–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–21.99
    7. Week 10: expected 11.9, likely 6.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–22.410
    8. Week 11: expected 11.4, likely 5.9–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.511
    9. Week 12: expected 11.2, likely 5.8–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–2112
    10. Week 13: expected 12.1, likely 6.3–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–22.713
    11. Week 14: expected 11.4, likely 6–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.514
    12. Week 15: expected 10.8, likely 5.6–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.315
    13. Week 16: expected 12.5, likely 6.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–23.416
    14. Week 17: expected 10.7, likely 5.6–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–20.117

    A Week 3 hamstring injury put Etienne on IR, with no surgery needed, and the Saints' Week 8 bye makes Week 9 his earliest return, which matches ESPN's sheet (nbcsports.com). Before the injury he led New Orleans with 30 carries for 128 yards, about 4.3 a carry, at 10.3 PPG, and coach Kellen Moore has shown a willingness to give goal-line work to CJ Donaldson. A low-end RB2 for Weeks 9-17 and the playoff run, with the usual hamstring re-aggravation risk.

    Why not the projection (12.6) Trimmed under ESPN's 12.6 to match his actual 10.3 PPG plus some upside, given the shared goal-line work and an offense that has struggled.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.4

    Above repl.

    +0.2

    Wks 14–17

    11.4

    Games

    9

    Kirkland Signature →
36. 36RBJaylen WrightMIA · Hanging with HernandezHold7.8ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.84
    2. Week 5: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.45
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.57
    5. Week 8: expected 7.5, likely 3–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–15.88
    6. Week 9: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.59
    7. Week 10: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.410
    8. Week 11: expected 7.6, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–15.911
    9. Week 12: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.212
    10. Week 13: expected 7.0, likely 2.8–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–14.813
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.814
    12. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.515
    13. Week 16: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.516
    14. Week 17: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.617

    De'Von Achane's season-ending torn ACL (thebiglead.com) puts Wright, healthy again after a stinger and foot injury, in a committee with Ollie Gordon II; Jeremy Fowler reports Miami will share the load short term, with Wright as the big-play back and Gordon the every-down type (sports.yahoo.com). An 0-3 offense limits the touchdown upside. A volatile flex until one of them takes over the job.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.2

    Above repl.

    0.0

    Wks 14–17

    7.9

    Games

    13

    Hanging with Hernandez →
37. 37RBJordan MasonMIN · Marvins RoomHold9.2ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.17
    5. Week 8: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.68
    6. Week 9: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.49
    7. Week 10: expected 9.2, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.410
    8. Week 11: expected 8.2, likely 4.3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.511
    9. Week 12: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.712
    10. Week 13: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.113
    11. Week 14: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.914
    12. Week 15: expected 9.9, likely 5.1–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.515
    13. Week 16: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–17.916
    14. Week 17: expected 8.7, likely 4.5–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.317

    Mason went on IR Sept. 16 with a small thumb fracture that Kevin O'Connell said has been fixed, and Minnesota's Week 6 bye makes him eligible for Week 7, which is right where ESPN starts him. He led the Week 1 win with 15 carries for 59 yards and a TD (vikings.com), but Aaron Jones is still on the roster, so this is an early-down and goal-line share, not a workhorse role. Useful RB3 depth for the second half, nothing more.

    Why not the projection (10.7) Under ESPN's 10.7 because Aaron Jones remains on the roster and Mason's Week 1 role was a 15-carry share, not a featured back's workload.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.2

    Above repl.

    0.0

    Wks 14–17

    9.1

    Games

    11

    Marvins Room →
38. 38RBKeaton MitchellLAC · Ankit's Awesome TeamBuy7.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 4.9, likely 1.9–7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.24
    2. Week 5: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.25
    3. Week 6: expected 7.4, likely 3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.66
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: expected 7.2, likely 2.9–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–15.18
    6. Week 9: expected 7.6, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–169
    7. Week 10: expected 7.6, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–1610
    8. Week 11: expected 8.0, likely 3.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.911
    9. Week 12: expected 7.8, likely 3.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.412
    10. Week 13: expected 7.6, likely 3–11, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–15.913
    11. Week 14: expected 7.9, likely 3.2–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.514
    12. Week 15: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.215
    13. Week 16: expected 8.3, likely 3.3–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–17.516
    14. Week 17: expected 7.7, likely 3.1–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–16.117

    Mitchell's snaps went from 17 to 23-26 in Week 3, and he turned 8 carries into 52 yards plus a TD (13.7 points), while the Chargers coaches have shown they trust him and Vidal in high-leverage spots over Hampton (heavy.com). He's a big-play back, so the weekly range is wide, but at a FantasyCalc value of 192 he's the cheapest way to own the side of the LA backfield that's gaining work.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.0

    Above repl.

    -0.2

    Wks 14–17

    7.9

    Games

    13

    Ankit's Awesome Team →
39. 39RBRachaad WhiteWSH · Ari's Astounding TeamHold8.5ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: expected 4.5, likely 0–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–13.9 (questionable)5
    3. Week 6: expected 8.2, likely 4.3–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.46
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: expected 8.5, likely 4.4–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.98
    6. Week 9: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.39
    7. Week 10: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.610
    8. Week 11: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.611
    9. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 4.7–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–17.112
    10. Week 13: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.213
    11. Week 14: expected 8.3, likely 4.3–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.614
    12. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 4.4–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–1615
    13. Week 16: expected 7.7, likely 4–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.516
    14. Week 17: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.317

    White missed every practice in Week 4 with a shoulder injury and was ruled out, and NBC calls him questionable for Week 5 (nbcsports.com). When healthy he had been Washington's most productive back (14.3 and 11.1 in Weeks 2-3), but the Austin Ekeler signing takes some of his third-down work. A flex when active, and a shoulder can linger.

    Why not the projection (7.7) Above ESPN's 7.7 because he scored 10.0 PPG with the role intact; Week 5 questionable for the shoulder.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.0

    Above repl.

    -0.2

    Wks 14–17

    8.2

    Games

    11.5

    Ari's Astounding Team →
40. 40RBWoody MarksHOU · Kirkland SignatureHold7.6ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 8.2, likely 4.3–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.54
    2. Week 5: expected 7.6, likely 4–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.35
    3. Week 6: expected 7.2, likely 3.7–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.46
    4. Week 7: expected 8.1, likely 4.2–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.37
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.19
    7. Week 10: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.110
    8. Week 11: expected 8.0, likely 4.2–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–15.111
    9. Week 12: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.112
    10. Week 13: expected 7.2, likely 3.7–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.513
    11. Week 14: expected 7.6, likely 4–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.414
    12. Week 15: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.715
    13. Week 16: expected 7.1, likely 3.7–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.416
    14. Week 17: expected 7.8, likely 4.1–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.717

    Marks and David Montgomery have split the Houston backfield almost exactly (78 to 81 snaps through two weeks), with Marks at about a 45% snap share, a 37% route share and some red-zone carries (fantasypros.com). That's a steady 7-8 points a week (5.0, 8.5, 9.1 so far), a replacement-level flex with a little standalone receiving value.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    7.0

    Above repl.

    -0.2

    Wks 14–17

    7.5

    Games

    13

    Kirkland Signature →
41. 41RBAlvin KamaraNO · London BridgeSell7.4ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 4.9–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.74
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 4.6–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.65
    3. Week 6: expected 9.9, likely 5.1–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–18.66
    4. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 4.9–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.67
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.39
    7. Week 10: expected 6.7, likely 3.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.510
    8. Week 11: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.211
    9. Week 12: expected 6.4, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–1212
    10. Week 13: expected 6.8, likely 3.5–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.813
    11. Week 14: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.114
    12. Week 15: expected 6.1, likely 3.2–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.515
    13. Week 16: expected 7.0, likely 3.6–9.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.216
    14. Week 17: expected 6.1, likely 3.2–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.517

    Etienne's IR stint gives Kamara the lead-back window for Weeks 4-7 (ESPN ~10.5 a week), but the Saints are expected to split the work with Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson, and he has struggled to run efficiently this season (nbcsports.com). He's at 4.1 PPG so far, and from Week 9 on ESPN has him at about 7. Sell now, while the 'Kamara is the lead back again' headlines still move the price.

    Why not the projection (8.3) Below ESPN's 8.3 because his efficiency has fallen off (4.1 PPG through three weeks) and even the Etienne-less stretch is a committee.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    6.9

    Above repl.

    -0.3

    Wks 14–17

    6.4

    Games

    13

    London Bridge →
42. 42RBBlake CorumLAR · Team Cash Money SquaHold6.8ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 6.7, likely 3.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.64
    2. Week 5: expected 7.0, likely 3.6–9.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.25
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.26
    4. Week 7: expected 6.8, likely 3.5–9.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.77
    5. Week 8: expected 7.0, likely 3.7–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.28
    6. Week 9: expected 6.8, likely 3.6–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.99
    7. Week 10: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.610
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.812
    10. Week 13: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.213
    11. Week 14: expected 6.2, likely 3.2–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.714
    12. Week 15: expected 7.2, likely 3.7–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.515
    13. Week 16: expected 5.8, likely 3–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–1116
    14. Week 17: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.217

    Corum split carries evenly with Kyren Williams in Weeks 1-2, then fell behind in Week 3 with 6 carries for 15 yards and two catches for no gain, while Williams played 71% of snaps (heavy.com). The Rams want to limit Williams' workload, so Corum keeps a role, but 6.4 PPG is what that role has produced. Hold him as the handcuff to a back the Rams are trying to keep fresh for January.

    Why not the projection (8.2) Below ESPN's 8.2 to match his 6.4 PPG actual and a shrinking Week 3 share.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    6.3

    Above repl.

    -0.9

    Wks 14–17

    6.4

    Games

    13

    Team Cash Money Squa →
43. 43RBBraelon AllenNYJ · Los Angeles LesbiansHold6.6ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 11.5, likely 6–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–21.74
    2. Week 5: expected 6.3, likely 3.3–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–11.95
    3. Week 6: expected 5.8, likely 3–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.96
    4. Week 7: expected 6.8, likely 3.5–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.87
    5. Week 8: expected 6.4, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–128
    6. Week 9: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.69
    7. Week 10: expected 6.4, likely 3.3–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.110
    8. Week 11: expected 6.1, likely 3.2–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.511
    9. Week 12: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.312
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    11. Week 14: expected 5.9, likely 3.1–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.214
    12. Week 15: expected 6.6, likely 3.4–9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.415
    13. Week 16: expected 6.1, likely 3.2–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–11.516
    14. Week 17: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.517

    Breece Hall's quad injury, which Rapoport said brought good MRI news (nbcsports.com), made Allen the lead back while Hall sits. ESPN assumes Hall is back in Week 5, after which Allen returns to the 19-carries-in-three-games backup role, with Isaiah Davis also around. If Hall misses more time Allen is a short-term RB2, but the projection can't show that, so treat him as a handcuff.

    Why not the projection (7.3) Slightly under ESPN because his behind-Hall role produced 5.7 PPG and most of his remaining weeks are in that role.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    6.1

    Above repl.

    -1.1

    Wks 14–17

    6.1

    Games

    13

    Los Angeles Lesbians →
44. 44RBRico DowdlePIT · Team Cash Money SquaHold7.0ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: expected 3.8, likely 0–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.5 (questionable)5
    3. Week 6: expected 6.7, likely 3.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.66
    4. Week 7: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–10, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–13.87
    5. Week 8: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.78
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    7. Week 10: expected 6.9, likely 3.6–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–1310
    8. Week 11: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.311
    9. Week 12: expected 6.9, likely 3.6–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.912
    10. Week 13: expected 6.7, likely 3.5–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–12.613
    11. Week 14: expected 6.4, likely 3.3–8.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.114
    12. Week 15: expected 6.9, likely 3.6–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–1315
    13. Week 16: expected 7.4, likely 3.9–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–1416
    14. Week 17: expected 7.1, likely 3.7–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.317

    A toe injury from Week 2 has kept Dowdle out of Weeks 3-4, and Ian Rapoport says there's a pretty good chance he plays Week 5 against Indianapolis after the mini-bye (nbcsports.com). The problem is Jaylen Warren, who ran 17 times for 127 yards and caught 3 passes for 49 in Week 3 and has been a true workhorse since. Dowdle comes back to a committee he may not lead, so his 3.5 PPG actual is closer to the truth than ESPN's 8.2.

    Why not the projection (8.2) Below ESPN because Warren has taken over the lead role during Dowdle's absence; Week 5 questionable for the toe.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    5.7

    Above repl.

    -1.5

    Wks 14–17

    7.0

    Games

    11.5

    Team Cash Money Squa →
45. 45RBBrian Robinson Jr.ATL · I have a dreamHold6.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 6.2, likely 2.5–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.94
    2. Week 5: expected 5.9, likely 2.4–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.35
    3. Week 6: expected 6.4, likely 2.6–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–13.56
    4. Week 7: expected 5.7, likely 2.3–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–127
    5. Week 8: expected 5.6, likely 2.3–8.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–11.88
    6. Week 9: expected 6.1, likely 2.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.79
    7. Week 10: expected 5.7, likely 2.3–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–1210
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 5.1, likely 2–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.712
    10. Week 13: expected 6.6, likely 2.7–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–13.913
    11. Week 14: expected 5.9, likely 2.4–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.514
    12. Week 15: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.715
    13. Week 16: expected 6.0, likely 2.4–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–12.516
    14. Week 17: expected 6.5, likely 2.6–9.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–13.617

    The Week 3 11.0 came on 10 carries and a 7-yard TD after Bijan Robinson had already taken 29 carries in a blowout (nbcsports.com). He's one of the best pure handcuffs available and almost unstartable on his own. His value is insurance on Bijan.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    5.6

    Above repl.

    -1.6

    Wks 14–17

    6.1

    Games

    13

    I have a dream →
46. 46RBJadarian PriceSEA · Free WinSell8.5ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.78
    6. Week 9: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–17.59
    7. Week 10: expected 8.4, likely 4.4–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–15.810
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 7.8, likely 4.1–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.712
    10. Week 13: expected 8.9, likely 4.6–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–16.813
    11. Week 14: expected 9.1, likely 4.7–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–1714
    12. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.915
    13. Week 16: expected 7.9, likely 4.1–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–14.816
    14. Week 17: expected 8.6, likely 4.5–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–16.117

    Seattle put the rookie on IR on Oct 3 after he re-aggravated a Week 2 chest injury in practice; Week 8 against the Bears (Nov. 2) is his earliest return, which matches ESPN's sheet (nbcsports.com). He has scored 7.8, 5.0 and 1.2 with fumble problems, and by Week 8 Zach Charbonnet should be back and could push him for the starting job (nbcsports.com). The first-round draft capital is the only thing keeping his price up.

    Why not the projection (10.5) Two points below ESPN because he returns to a likely split with Charbonnet after averaging 4.7 PPG with ball-security problems.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    5.5

    Above repl.

    -1.7

    Wks 14–17

    8.4

    Games

    9

    Free Win →
47. 47RBTyjae SpearsTEN · I have a dreamHold5.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 6.5, likely 3.4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–12.24
    2. Week 5: expected 5.2, likely 2.7–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–9.75
    3. Week 6: expected 5.5, likely 2.9–7.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–10.46
    4. Week 7: expected 5.4, likely 2.8–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–10.27
    5. Week 8: expected 5.3, likely 2.8–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–10.18
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    7. Week 10: expected 5.2, likely 2.7–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–9.910
    8. Week 11: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.511
    9. Week 12: expected 5.1, likely 2.6–6.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–9.612
    10. Week 13: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.613
    11. Week 14: expected 5.7, likely 3–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.714
    12. Week 15: expected 5.7, likely 3–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.715
    13. Week 16: expected 5.4, likely 2.8–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–10.116
    14. Week 17: expected 5.3, likely 2.7–7.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–9.917

    Spears was questionable with an ankle injury going into Week 4 and is clearly behind Tony Pollard in a Titans offense that limits even Pollard to a moderate flex (nbcsports.com). His 4.6 PPG and 0.5-point Week 3 are about right. He's a handcuff in a bad offense, so he's only rosterable as depth.

    Why not the projection (6.8) Below ESPN's 6.8 because he's the clear No. 2 behind Pollard in a weak offense and has produced 4.6 PPG.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    5.1

    Above repl.

    -2.1

    Wks 14–17

    5.5

    Games

    13

    I have a dream →
48. 48RBMike Washington Jr.LV · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold5.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 3.3, likely 1.3–4.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.3–74
    2. Week 5: expected 5.1, likely 2–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.75
    3. Week 6: expected 5.6, likely 2.2–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–11.86
    4. Week 7: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.57
    5. Week 8: expected 5.2, likely 2.1–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–118
    6. Week 9: expected 4.9, likely 1.9–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.29
    7. Week 10: expected 4.6, likely 1.8–6.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–9.610
    8. Week 11: expected 4.8, likely 1.9–6.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–1011
    9. Week 12: expected 5.1, likely 2.1–7.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.812
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    11. Week 14: expected 5.4, likely 2.2–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–11.314
    12. Week 15: expected 5.1, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.615
    13. Week 16: expected 5.5, likely 2.2–7.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–11.516
    14. Week 17: expected 5.6, likely 2.2–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–11.717

    Klint Kubiak wouldn't promise any snap split between Washington and Ashton Jeanty (nfl.com), but in practice Jeanty has the job and the rookie gets change-of-pace carries (4.1, 0.7, then 11.4 in Week 3). The burst is real, and he becomes a starter if Jeanty, who dealt with an ankle injury in August, goes down. Until then he's a stash.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    4.7

    Above repl.

    -2.5

    Wks 14–17

    5.4

    Games

    13

    Ankit's Awesome Team →
49. 49RBEmmett JohnsonKC · Abhinav's TeamHold4.6ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 4.7, likely 2.5–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.94
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: expected 4.8, likely 2.5–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.96
    4. Week 7: expected 4.1, likely 2.1–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.77
    5. Week 8: expected 4.4, likely 2.3–5.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–8.28
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 2.4–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.89
    7. Week 10: expected 4.4, likely 2.3–6, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–8.310
    8. Week 11: expected 5.1, likely 2.6–6.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–9.511
    9. Week 12: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.712
    10. Week 13: expected 4.2, likely 2.2–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–7.913
    11. Week 14: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.614
    12. Week 15: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.615
    13. Week 16: expected 4.5, likely 2.3–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.416
    14. Week 17: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.617

    RB coach DeMarco Murray promised the rookie more opportunities (heavy.com), but his snap share fell from 36% in Week 1 to 18% in Week 2, and he has scored 8.8, 5.5, 1.7. He's the handcuff to Kenneth Walker III, who has missed 10 games in four seasons, and that is the only reason to hold him.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    4.2

    Above repl.

    -3.0

    Wks 14–17

    4.6

    Games

    13

    Abhinav's Team →
50. 50RBKaelon BlackSF · Abhinav's TeamHold4.4ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 5.2, likely 2.7–7.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–9.84
    2. Week 5: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.25
    3. Week 6: expected 4.7, likely 2.5–6.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.96
    4. Week 7: expected 4.3, likely 2.2–5.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–87
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: expected 4.7, likely 2.5–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.99
    7. Week 10: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.610
    8. Week 11: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.611
    9. Week 12: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.612
    10. Week 13: expected 4.7, likely 2.5–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.913
    11. Week 14: expected 4.2, likely 2.2–5.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–7.914
    12. Week 15: expected 4.5, likely 2.3–6.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.415
    13. Week 16: expected 4.1, likely 2.1–5.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–7.716
    14. Week 17: expected 4.4, likely 2.3–6, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–8.317

    The third-round rookie won the backup job behind Christian McCaffrey and out-carried him in Week 1 with 14 carries (nbcsportsbayarea.com), but 2.5 and 1.7 points since then show what his role is when McCaffrey is healthy. He's a premium handcuff in the Shanahan system and nothing more until McCaffrey misses time.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    4.1

    Above repl.

    -3.1

    Wks 14–17

    4.3

    Games

    13

    Abhinav's Team →
51. 51RBJustice HillBAL · Team Cash Money SquaHold4.0ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 4.6, likely 2.4–6.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–8.64
    2. Week 5: expected 3.8, likely 2–5.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.25
    3. Week 6: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.46
    4. Week 7: expected 4.1, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.67
    5. Week 8: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.68
    6. Week 9: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.49
    7. Week 10: expected 4.1, likely 2.1–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.610
    8. Week 11: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.511
    9. Week 12: expected 3.8, likely 2–5.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.112
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    11. Week 14: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.414
    12. Week 15: expected 3.9, likely 2–5.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.315
    13. Week 16: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.516
    14. Week 17: expected 4.0, likely 2.1–5.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–7.517

    Hill is Baltimore's passing-down back behind Derrick Henry, and his touches depend on game script (si.com). Three straight weeks of 3.3-3.8 points show the ceiling when the Ravens aren't trailing. He doesn't belong in a starting lineup and could be cut.

    Why not the projection (4.7) Below ESPN's 4.7 to match a 3.6 PPG floor-only role.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    3.7

    Above repl.

    -3.5

    Wks 14–17

    4.0

    Games

    13

    Team Cash Money Squa →
52. 52RBMarShawn LloydGB · London BridgeSell3.8ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.54
    2. Week 5: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.15
    3. Week 6: expected 7.6, likely 3.9–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.36
    4. Week 7: expected 7.5, likely 3.9–10.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–14.17
    5. Week 8: expected 2.5, likely 1.3–3.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.68
    6. Week 9: expected 2.2, likely 1.2–3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.29
    7. Week 10: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–410
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–3.912
    10. Week 13: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.513
    11. Week 14: expected 2.4, likely 1.2–3.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.514
    12. Week 15: expected 2.6, likely 1.3–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.815
    13. Week 16: expected 2.3, likely 1.2–3.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–4.416
    14. Week 17: expected 2.2, likely 1.2–3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.217

    Lloyd went into the season as the fill-in lead back with Josh Jacobs on the exempt list, but he had competition from trade pickup Kaleb Johnson (sports.yahoo.com), and he has scored only 3.7, 8.6 and 3.8. ESPN projects him at about 8.7 for Weeks 5-7 and then about 2.6 once Jacobs is back; since his lead-back stretch has produced 5.4 PPG, I've scaled the whole line down. If anyone sees him as the Packers' starter, sell him this week.

    Why not the projection (4.4) Under ESPN because his lead-back stretch has averaged 5.4 PPG, well short of the 8.7 ESPN projects for Weeks 5-7, and he's a backup once Jacobs returns.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    3.5

    Above repl.

    -3.7

    Wks 14–17

    2.4

    Games

    13

    London Bridge →
53. 53RBJonah ColemanDEN · Horus St. BrownHold5.0ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: expected 2.5, likely 0–4.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–8.3 (questionable)7
    5. Week 8: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.58
    6. Week 9: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.59
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.511
    9. Week 12: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.512
    10. Week 13: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.513
    11. Week 14: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.514
    12. Week 15: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.515
    13. Week 16: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.516
    14. Week 17: expected 5.0, likely 2–7.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–10.517

    The rookie suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 2, where he scored a TD in a 14.8-point game, and Denver put him on IR on Sept. 26, so he can't return before Week 7 against Arizona (Oct. 25) (nbcsports.com); reports say that's the target date (predominantlyorange.com). That breakout came with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey both hurt. With both healthy he returns as the No. 3 back in a committee, so he's a stash who needs another injury to matter. ESPN projects him at zero all season; this board puts him back in at about 5 points a game from Week 7.

    Why not the projection (5.0) We overwrote ESPN's all-zero projection: he went on IR Sept. 26 with a four-game minimum and is eligible to return in Week 7, so Weeks 7-17 (minus the Week 10 bye) are set at 5.0 as a No. 3 back, with Week 7 questionable for a lingering high-ankle sprain.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    3.4

    Above repl.

    -3.8

    Wks 14–17

    5.0

    Games

    9.5

    Horus St. Brown →
54. 54RBEmanuel WilsonSEA · Ankit's Awesome TeamSell8.5ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 10.3, likely 5.4–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–19.44
    2. Week 5: expected 12.2, likely 6.4–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–235
    3. Week 6: expected 5.6, likely 2.9–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.66
    4. Week 7: expected 5.7, likely 3–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–10.77
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: bye or not projected12
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    12. Week 15: bye or not projected15
    13. Week 16: bye or not projected16
    14. Week 17: bye or not projected17

    Wilson heads the Seattle depth chart with Jadarian Price on IR (sports.yahoo.com), but he's averaging 3.4 yards a carry (109 yards on 32 attempts), and Zach Charbonnet's PUP window is already open (nbcsports.com). ESPN's shape is right: lead work in Weeks 4-5, a smaller role once Charbonnet is back in Weeks 6-7, and nothing after Price returns in Week 8. As the No. 3 back behind Charbonnet and Price, his zeros after Week 7 are close enough to correct. Any value he has is in the next two weeks.

    Why not the projection (9.5) Under ESPN's 9.5 because 3.4 yards per carry and 3.6 PPG through three weeks don't support a 11-14 point lead-back projection.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    2.4

    Above repl.

    -4.8

    Wks 14–17

    0.0

    Games

    4

    Ankit's Awesome Team →
55. 55RBGeorge HolaniSEA · Free WinHold5.8ppg

    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 5–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–18.14
    2. Week 5: expected 7.3, likely 3.8–9.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–13.65
    3. Week 6: expected 3.1, likely 1.6–4.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–5.86
    4. Week 7: expected 3.1, likely 1.6–4.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–5.97
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: bye or not projected12
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    12. Week 15: bye or not projected15
    13. Week 16: bye or not projected16
    14. Week 17: bye or not projected17

    Holani is No. 2 behind Emanuel Wilson while Price is on IR (52 yards on 15 carries) (sports.yahoo.com), and he drops to No. 4 once Charbonnet (Week 6-ish) and Price (Week 8) return. ESPN zeroing him out after Week 7 is fair, since a fourth-string back with special-teams snaps isn't worth projecting. He's a two-week rental at most, then waiver material.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    1.7

    Above repl.

    -5.5

    Wks 14–17

    0.0

    Games

    4

    Free Win →
56. 56RBIsiah PachecoDET · Kirkland SignatureHold4.5ppg

    1. Week 4: bye or not projected4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected5
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected6
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    6. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    9. Week 12: bye or not projected12
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    12. Week 15: bye or not projected15
    13. Week 16: bye or not projected16
    14. Week 17: bye or not projected17

    Pacheco had back surgery in mid-September with a 12-week recovery timeline, so Rotowire's estimated return is Dec. 6; that's only a chance, and a setback could end his season (rotowire.com). Even healthy, he'd return as Jahmyr Gibbs' backup on a team where Gibbs handled 29 of 31 backfield carries in Week 1, so the best case is a few touches a game in Weeks 14-17. He's an IR stash with little upside, kept only as a possible Gibbs handcuff for the playoffs.

    Why not the projection (0.0) ppg is a placeholder for a low-volume Gibbs backup; we keep ESPN's all-zero projection because the only return estimate (Rotowire's Dec. 6) is a guess, so he carries no value on this board.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    0.0

    Above repl.

    -7.2

    Wks 14–17

    0.0

    Games

    0

    Kirkland Signature →