UIUC Fantasy FootballEst. 2018 · 2026 season

Week 3 boardUpdated Sun, Oct 4 · Weeks 4–17

Week 3 Player Board: Jahmyr Gibbs Is the Only Tier 1, Saquon Barkley Lands in Tier 6

Gibbs projects 25.0 points a week, 17.8 above the best free-agent back, the only player in Tier 1. Barkley lands in Tier 6 after a 7-ppg start and a Week 4 hamstring. Kenneth Walker III, Brock Purdy and A.J. Brown are the biggest sells against the market. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 14.8 · RB 7.2 · WR 8.9 · TE 9.1 · K 8.4 · DEF 5.5

  1. 1KBrandon AubreyDAL · I have a dreamHold10.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    2. Week 5: expected 10.2, likely 6.1–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–17.6
    3. Week 6: expected 10.1, likely 6.1–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.5
    4. Week 7: expected 9.6, likely 5.8–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.7
    5. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 6.5–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–18.6
    6. Week 9: expected 10.1, likely 6.1–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.5
    7. Week 10: expected 10.1, likely 6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.4
    8. Week 11: expected 10.5, likely 6.3–14, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–18.1
    9. Week 12: expected 10.1, likely 6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.4
    10. Week 13: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    11. Week 14: bye or not projected
    12. Week 15: expected 9.6, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    13. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 6–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.3
    14. Week 17: expected 10.6, likely 6.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.6–18.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The best leg in football in a Dallas offense that moves the ball and stalls in the red zone often enough to give him 10-plus a week. 9.7 ppg so far, after a 2-point Week 1. The catch: a Week 14 bye takes him out of the first playoff week.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.3
    Above repl.
    +0.9
    Wks 14–17
    7.6
    Games
    13
    I have a dream →
  2. 2KEddy PineiroSF · Free WinHold9.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16
    2. Week 5: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    3. Week 6: expected 10.0, likely 6–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.4
    4. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 9.8, likely 5.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.9
    7. Week 10: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.4
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.5
    9. Week 12: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.9
    10. Week 13: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.4
    11. Week 14: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    12. Week 15: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    13. Week 16: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    14. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    San Francisco's offense generates long drives, which is ideal kicker volume. 7.7 ppg so far is below what this offense should produce. Weeks 14-17 (LAR, @LAC, @KC, PHI) are tougher for the offense, a slight knock.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    +0.3
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    13
    Free Win →
  3. 3KJason MyersSEA · Ari's Astounding TeamHold9.3ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.6, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.6
    2. Week 5: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    3. Week 6: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–15
    4. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    5. Week 8: expected 9.6, likely 5.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.6
    6. Week 9: expected 10.0, likely 6–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–17.2
    7. Week 10: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    8. Week 11: bye or not projected
    9. Week 12: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    10. Week 13: expected 9.8, likely 5.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.9
    11. Week 14: expected 9.8, likely 5.9–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.9
    12. Week 15: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    13. Week 16: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.9
    14. Week 17: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–16
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    7.7 ppg so far, 7-7-9, in a Seattle offense that has been disrupted by Darnold's glute injury. With Darnold back he should settle near 9. Playoff slate (NYG, @PHI, LAR, @CAR) is fine.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    +0.3
    Wks 14–17
    9.3
    Games
    13
    Ari's Astounding Team →
  4. 4KWill ReichardMIN · Horus St. BrownHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.3
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–16
    5. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    6. Week 9: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–16
    7. Week 10: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    8. Week 11: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    9. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    10. Week 13: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    11. Week 14: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    12. Week 15: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    14. Week 17: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    11.0 ppg with a 16-point Week 3, kicking indoors for a Vikings offense getting Kyler Murray back. A useful K with a dome edge, though the playoff weeks include @NE and @NYJ outdoors in December.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.4
    Above repl.
    0.0
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Horus St. Brown →
  5. 5KCam LittleJAX · Team Cash Money SquaHold8.9ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    2. Week 5: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    3. Week 6: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–15
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.4
    6. Week 9: expected 8.6, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.9
    7. Week 10: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    9. Week 12: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    10. Week 13: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    11. Week 14: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    12. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    13. Week 16: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    14. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.5
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Jacksonville's offense is scoring TDs, not kicking: 12, 7, 4 so far. A steady, replacement-plus kicker with range. Playoff slate (PIT, @HOU, @DAL, WSH) is mixed.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    9.0
    Games
    13
    Team Cash Money Squa →
  6. 6KEvan McPhersonCIN · Ankit's Awesome TeamHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    2. Week 5: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    3. Week 6: bye or not projected
    4. Week 7: expected 8.6, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    5. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    6. Week 9: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.5
    7. Week 10: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    8. Week 11: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    9. Week 12: expected 9.4, likely 5.7–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.3
    10. Week 13: expected 8.6, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–15
    11. Week 14: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    12. Week 15: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    13. Week 16: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.5
    14. Week 17: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    14.0 ppg (19, 12, 11) leads this group, in a Burrow offense that has climbed every week. He will not hold that pace, but long-range attempts give him a ceiling. The playoff run (KC, @CAR, @IND, BAL) includes a dome game.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →
  7. 7KHarrison ButkerKC · Abhinav's TeamHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    2. Week 5: bye or not projected
    3. Week 6: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    4. Week 7: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    5. Week 8: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    6. Week 9: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16
    7. Week 10: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    8. Week 11: expected 9.7, likely 5.8–13, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.8
    9. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    10. Week 13: expected 8.6, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    11. Week 14: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    12. Week 15: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    13. Week 16: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    14. Week 17: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    9.3 ppg so far with a 16-point Week 2. Kansas City's offense keeps him in a good spot. The bye is Week 5; the playoff run (@CIN, NE, SF, @LAC) is fine.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    9.0
    Games
    13
    Abhinav's Team →
  8. 8KSpencer ShraderIND · Marvins RoomHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.2
    2. Week 5: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    3. Week 6: expected 9.4, likely 5.7–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.3
    4. Week 7: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.3
    5. Week 8: expected 8.4, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    6. Week 9: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    7. Week 10: expected 9.7, likely 5.8–13, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–16.8
    8. Week 11: expected 8.4, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    9. Week 12: expected 9.5, likely 5.7–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.5
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 8.6, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    12. Week 15: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–16
    14. Week 17: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    12.7 ppg (7, 14, 17) for an Indianapolis offense moving the ball well. The Week 13 bye is before the playoffs; Weeks 14-17 (@PHI, @TEN, CIN, @CLE) are a mix.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Marvins Room →
  9. 9KTyler LoopBAL · Kirkland SignatureHold9.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.4, likely 5.6–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.3
    2. Week 5: expected 8.9, likely 5.3–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    3. Week 6: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    4. Week 7: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.9
    5. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    6. Week 9: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    7. Week 10: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.5
    9. Week 12: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    10. Week 13: bye or not projected
    11. Week 14: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.8
    12. Week 15: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.5
    13. Week 16: expected 9.2, likely 5.5–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.9
    14. Week 17: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    10.3 ppg (14, 5, 12) in a Ravens offense that scores often. Lamar's ankle is the risk to his volume. Week 13 bye, then TB, @PIT, CLE, @CIN for the playoffs.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.3
    Above repl.
    -0.1
    Wks 14–17
    8.9
    Games
    13
    Kirkland Signature →
  10. 10KDaniel CarlsonNO · Los Angeles LesbiansHold8.7ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.9, likely 5.4–12, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.4
    2. Week 5: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    3. Week 6: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–15
    4. Week 7: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.3
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.3
    7. Week 10: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    8. Week 11: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    9. Week 12: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.5
    10. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 5.5–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    11. Week 14: expected 8.6, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    12. Week 15: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    13. Week 16: expected 9.3, likely 5.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–16.1
    14. Week 17: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Volatile start (5, 13, 3) in a high-volume Saints passing offense. Shough's yardage creates chances, and the playoff slate (@CAR, @TB, ARI, @ATL) is soft and includes a dome game.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.1
    Above repl.
    -0.3
    Wks 14–17
    8.7
    Games
    13
    Los Angeles Lesbians →
  11. 11KKa'imi FairbairnHOU · London BridgeHold8.6ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 9.1, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    2. Week 5: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.8
    3. Week 6: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    4. Week 7: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    5. Week 8: bye or not projected
    6. Week 9: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.6
    7. Week 10: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    8. Week 11: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.7
    9. Week 12: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–15
    10. Week 13: expected 8.0, likely 4.8–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.8
    11. Week 14: expected 8.7, likely 5.2–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.1
    12. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    13. Week 16: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.2
    14. Week 17: expected 8.6, likely 5.2–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.9
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Houston is 0-3 with a struggling offense (10 sacks allowed, no Nico Collins: cbssports.com), so fewer field-goal tries: 9, 6, 5 so far. He is accurate enough that the volume, not the leg, is the problem. Playoff slate (@WSH, JAX, @PHI, @GB) has no dome bonus.

    Why not the projection (9.4) Below ESPN's 9.4 because the Texans' offense is not reaching field-goal range often.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    8.0
    Above repl.
    -0.4
    Wks 14–17
    8.5
    Games
    13
    London Bridge →
  12. 12KCairo SantosCHI · Hanging with HernandezHold8.4ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    2. Week 5: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    3. Week 6: expected 8.1, likely 4.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.1
    4. Week 7: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.3
    5. Week 8: expected 7.6, likely 4.5–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–13.1
    6. Week 9: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    7. Week 10: bye or not projected
    8. Week 11: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    9. Week 12: expected 8.6, likely 5.2–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.9
    10. Week 13: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–11, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.2
    11. Week 14: expected 8.5, likely 5.1–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–14.7
    12. Week 15: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    13. Week 16: expected 8.8, likely 5.3–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 3–15.2
    14. Week 17: expected 9.0, likely 5.4–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–15.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    8.7 ppg in a Bears offense running through backup QBs until Caleb Williams returns around Week 6. Replacement-level until then. The playoff slate (@MIA, @BUF, GB, DET) has two December games in Chicago and one in Buffalo.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.8
    Above repl.
    -0.6
    Wks 14–17
    8.7
    Games
    13
    Hanging with Hernandez →
  13. 13KCameron DickerLAC · Ankit's Awesome TeamSell8.0ppg
    1. Week 4: expected 7.5, likely 4.5–10, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–12.9
    2. Week 5: expected 8.0, likely 4.8–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.8
    3. Week 6: expected 7.7, likely 4.6–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–13.4
    4. Week 7: bye or not projected
    5. Week 8: expected 7.7, likely 4.6–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–13.3
    6. Week 9: expected 8.1, likely 4.8–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–14
    7. Week 10: expected 7.8, likely 4.7–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.6
    8. Week 11: expected 8.3, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.4
    9. Week 12: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.1
    10. Week 13: expected 7.8, likely 4.7–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.6
    11. Week 14: expected 8.0, likely 4.8–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–13.9
    12. Week 15: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.1
    13. Week 16: expected 8.4, likely 5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.5
    14. Week 17: expected 8.2, likely 4.9–10.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–14.1
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    4.0 ppg (2, 1, 9) is what an 0-3 Chargers offense that stalls on penalties and drops looks like (nbcsports.com). The leg is elite, the opportunities are not. Playoff slate includes SF and KC.

    Why not the projection (8.6) Below ESPN's 8.6 because the Chargers' offense is not reaching scoring range.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    7.4
    Above repl.
    -1.0
    Wks 14–17
    8.2
    Games
    13
    Ankit's Awesome Team →

The analyst's notes

The first board of 2026 covers all 192 rostered players, with a projection for every week from 4 through 17 in our scoring. Tiers measure points per week above the best free agent at each position, so the waiver wire sets the scale: Deshaun Watson gives you 14.8 a week at QB, while the best free-agent back, Tyler Allgeier, gives you only 7.2. That gap shapes the whole board. Six of the top eight players are running backs, and Josh Allen projects for 22.3 a week, more than anyone but Gibbs, yet that's only 7.5 above Watson, which puts him in Tier 4 next to Kyren Williams.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Ankit's Awesome Team) is alone at the top. His 25.0 a week is 17.8 above replacement, just under the Tier 1 line. We moved him up because the next-best player, Bijan Robinson, is 5.0 points a week behind him. Tier 3 is Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase. Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the board at 23.0 per game, 2.5 above ESPN, on a league-high 37% target share.

Week 4 cost the board a lot of health, and those injuries are priced in even though the box scores aren't. Chase (concussion), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Ladd McConkey and Justin Jefferson are questionable for Week 5. Rashee Rice is out for Week 6 after the Chiefs' bye. Saquon Barkley is out for Week 5 and questionable for Weeks 6 and 7. Each take cites its source.

Big moves

This is the first edition, so nothing moved yet. These are the calls we're most confident in:

  • Saquon Barkley, 15.2 → 11.0 per game (Tier 6, sell). He had 34 carries and 3 catches through three weeks for 7.0 a game, before he strained his hamstring on his second carry of Week 4. FantasyCalc still values him at 4,765.
  • Isaiah Likely, 13.1 → 9.0 (Tier 7, sell). Jaxson Dart is out for the season. Likely scored 27.8 with Dart and 8.3 and 3.3 with Jameis Winston, so he's no better than T.J. Hockenson on waivers.
  • Big ESPN cuts: Carnell Tate 14.0 → 10.5, Tony Pollard 13.7 → 10.5 and Rhamondre Stevenson 12.2 → 8.5. All three are in bad offenses or committees, and their starts (8.4, 8.5 and a split with TreVeyon Henderson) back that up.
  • Raised above ESPN: Smith-Njigba 20.5 → 23.0, Dalton Kincaid 9.4 → 11.5 and Brock Bowers 15.2 → 16.5. Bowers had 13 targets and a 92% route rate in his debut.
  • Two projections we wrote ourselves. ESPN has Jonah Coleman and Jalen McMillan at zero all season. Both are on short-term IR: Coleman is eligible in Week 7 and McMillan has a 6–8 week timeline. We put them back in at 5.0 and 4.5 a game, which still leaves both in Tier 8. Isiah Pacheco stays at zero, since the only return estimate after his back surgery is a December guess.
  • Marcus Mariota has no value after Week 4. He re-injured his MCL, and Jayden Daniels is targeting Week 5. Daniels is a buy at FantasyCalc's 431.

Where we disagree with the market

Sells:

  • Kenneth Walker III (8,862). The market prices him like McCaffrey because of his 26.4-point start. We take him 0.9 under ESPN because Andy Reid says Emmett Johnson will get more snaps.
  • Brock Purdy (2,320). He's scoring 27.0 a game on a 9:1 TD:INT ratio that won't last. London Bridge rosters four starting QBs, so the surplus is trade bait.
  • A.J. Brown (2,840). The market prices a healthy WR1, but the ankle gives him roughly nine usable games.
  • Malik Nabers (2,984). He's at 7.2 a game with Winston throwing to him.
  • Omarion Hampton (3,016) and TreVeyon Henderson (1,799). Both are committee backs barely above replacement.
  • Colston Loveland (1,177). He's below the waiver wire while Caleb Williams' hamstring heals.

Buys:

  • Justin Jefferson (6,122). The market is discounting a mild ankle sprain.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,384). He's cheaper than Jeremiyah Love, D'Andre Swift and Barkley, but more valuable than all three while Jonathon Brooks is on IR.
  • Michael Wilson (2,069). His target share climbed to 34% in Week 3.
  • Josh Jacobs (1,291). The market is pricing in suspension risk, but he looks like an RB2 in the playoff weeks.
  • Tucker Kraft (997). He's still running a starter's routes.
  • Ollie Gordon II (520). He's Miami's lead back now that De'Von Achane has torn his ACL.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season, kickers and D/ST included. The starting point is ESPN's weekly projections, which ESPN already scores with our league's settings. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. In a one-QB, 12-team league the waiver wire always has a startable QB, kicker and D/ST, so those spots rank lower than their raw points suggest. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (12 teams, 1 QB, PPR). Projections: ESPN weekly projections, Weeks 4–17, in our league's scoring (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-05.